PM Daily Market Commentary – 9/26/2019
Gold rose +1.29 [+0.09%] to 1515.31 on heavy volume, but silver fell -0.10 [-0.56%] to 17.91 on moderately heavy volume. The buck inched higher [+0.11%], bonds rallied [10Y -4.7 bp], while crude fell slightly [-0.16%] as did SPX [-0.24%]. Not much happened today.
Gold chopped sideways today. The bearish harami pattern was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved lower into a downtrend. Gold remains in an uptrend in both weekly and monthly timeframes.
COMEX GC open interest rose +2,370 contracts.
Futures are projecting a 67% chance of one rate cut in December, and an 18% chance of two rate cuts.
Silver chopped sideways but with a bias lower; the short black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved lower into a reasonably strong downtrend. Silver remains in an uptrend in both weekly and monthly timeframes.
COMEX SI open interest fell -1,332 contracts.
The gold/silver ratio rose +0.54 to 84.61. That’s bearish.
Miners rallied in the morning, then sold off for the rest of the day. GDX fell -1.13% on moderately light volume, while gDXJ dropped -1.59% on heavy volume. XAU fell -1.45%, the long black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster dropped into a downtrend. XAU remains in an uptrend in both weekly and monthly timeframes.
The GDX:gold ratio fell -1.21%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell -0.47%. That’s relatively bearish.
Platinum rose +1.09%, palladium climbed +1.54%, and copper dropped -1.06%. Palladium remains near all time highs, while copper looks as though its about to start descending once more.
The buck rose +0.11 [+0.11%] to 98.70. This was a new 2-year closing high for the buck. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved higher into an uptrend. The buck remains in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes.
There were no large currency moves today – although the Euro broke down to new multi-year lows.
PM Johnson confirmed that the EU has “reopened” negotiations on the withdrawal agreement – after saying for months this was impossible. Is anyone surprised? Gosh, it turns out that keeping no-deal on the table is a pretty useful negotiation technique.
Crude fell -0.09 [-0.16%] to 56.42. Crude made a new low to 55.41 intraday, but managed to bounce back by end of day. The dragonfly doji was a bearish continuation, and forecaster jumped higher but remains in a downtrend. Crude remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
SPX fell -7.25 [-0.24%] to 2977.62. The spinning top candle was unrated, and forecaster moved lower but remains in a slight uptrend. SPX remains in an uptrend all 3 timeframes.
Energy led lower (XLE:-1.31%) along with communication services (XLC:-0.97%), while REITs (XLRE:+0.97%) and staples (XLP:+0.56%) did best. This was a relatively bearish sector map.
VIX rose +0.11 to 16.07.
TLT rose +0.64%, the bullish harami was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved lower, dropping into a downtrend. TY rose +0.24%, the short white candle was a bearish continuation, but forecaster moved higher pulling TY back into an uptrend. TY is in an uptrend in both daily and monthly timeframes. The 10-year yield fell -4.7 bp to 1.69%.
JNK fell -0.06%, the spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved lower into its downtrend. BAA.AAA differential fell -2 bp to +88 bp. Still no worries from the low-quality credit market.
CRB fell -0.23%, with 3 of 5 sectors falling, led by industrial metals (-0.77%).
So there were happy noises from the US-China trade talks; China has indicated that Chinese companies are making large purchases of US soy and pork products. There were lots of other positive comments from the various participants. Will this lead to something more than soybeans? My sense is that yes, some sort of deal will be done.
That’s about it that I could see.
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