PM Daily Market Commentary – 9/11/2018
Gold rose +2.97 [+0.25%] to 1205.90 on heavy volume, while silver fell -004 [-0.28%] to 14.17 on heavy volume also. The buck rose +0.11%, which was a fairly minor move. Silver actually made a new multi-year low today but managed to bounce back. Good news or bad news? We’ll find out later.
Gold moved slowly lower until about 8 am when it sold off a bit harder, making a low to 1192.70 before bouncing back strongly into the close. Candle print was a hammer/bullish engulfing (43% bullish); forecaster edged down -0.03 to +0.05, which is still a slight uptrend. Gold closed right at its 9 MA. It remains in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes. Gold/Euros is looking a bit stronger; it is in an uptrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The strong surge of buying near end of day looked bullish to me – but the daily chart could go either direction.
COMEX GC open interest rose +2,029 contracts.
Rate rise chances (September 2018) remains at 98%.
Silver mostly followed gold, selling off briskly around 8:30 am, making a new low to 13.96, then bouncing back, recovering most of its losses. The high wave candle looked bullish (43% bullish reversal) but forecaster fell -0.07 to -0.03, which is a sell signal for silver. I’m on the fence there; the candle looked pretty strong, although not quite as strong as gold. Usually, new lows are not good news, but sometimes the big guys force a new low right before a rebound to rinse everyone out first. Silver is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes once again.
COMEX SI open interest rose +1,677 contracts.
The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.45 to 85.04. That’s bearish for today, but the current level for the ratio suggests PM could be at or near a long term low.
Miners moved lower today, with GDX off -0.23% on moderately light volume, while GDXJ fell -0.08% on moderately heavy volume. XAU was unchanged on the day; miners made a new low in early morning, but rebounded along with gold recovering most of the losses. Candle prints were long white/spinning top candles, which were bearish continuations. XAU forecaster fell -0.09 to -0.46, which is still a strong downtrend. Today was not a reversal bar, unfortunately. XAU remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
The GDX:$GOLD ratio fell -0.47%, while the GDXJ:GDX ratio rose +0.15%. That’s slightly bearish.
Platinum rose +0.70%, palladium edged down -0.08%, while copper fell -0.19%. Palladium is the only one of the other metals remaining in an uptrend – although platinum does seem to be trying hard to put in a low.
The buck rose +0.10 [+0.11%] to 94.86. The buck dipped in Asia but then bounced back; the spinning top candle was mildly positive, and forecaster jumped +0.26 to +0.21, which is a buy signal for DX. This brings DX into an uptrend in both the daily and monthly timeframes; the weekly still looks fairly weak.
Crude shot up +2.18 [+3.24%] to 69.52. It was a very strong day for crude; it launched higher at 10 am and just never looked back. Between hurricanes, and geopolitics, crude had a really good day. To cap it off, the API report looked quite bullish: crude -8.6m, gasoline +2.1m, distillates +5.8m, and that caused crude to jump 40c immediately following the release at 4:30 pm.. The strong line candle was bullish (43%) and the forecaster jumped +0.49 to +0.48, which is a buy signal for crude. Crude is now back above all 3 moving averages, and is now in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. We really need the API report to be confirmed by the EIA report at 10:30 am Wednesday, but if it looks good, we’re probably off to the races again.
SPX climbed +10.76 [+0.37%] to 2887.89. The confirmed bullish NR7 candle was a bullish reversal (55%) and forecaster jumped +0.18 to +0.06, which is a buy signal for SPX. While SPX remains below its 9 MA, it is now back in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Energy led (XLE:+0.95%) along with tech (XLK:+0.85%), while staples (XLP:-0.37%) and utilities (XLU:-0.26%) fell most. That’s a bullish sector map.
VIX plunged -0.94 to 13.22.
TLT plunged -0.76%, erasing yesterday’s swing low, making a new low, pulling TLT back into a clear downtrend. TY agrees, plunging -0.30%, with forecaster plunging -0.32 to -0.43. Looks like yesterday’s rally was just a dead cat bounce. The moves from the last few days are fairly large. What is the flight from treasury bonds about? Looks like a safe haven unwind, with money flowing from bonds to equities. TY is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The 10-year yield rose +4 bp to 2.98%. Suddenly, we are back up to within spitting distance of 3% once more.
JNK moved up +0.03%, which is basically no change. JNK remains in a short-term uptrend.
CRB rose +0.34%, with just 2 of 5 sectors rising, led by energy (+2.06%). CRB managed to creep back above its 9 MA today. Next stop: the 50.
Still no resolution to the PM situation; silver did make a new low, but the low didn’t last very long at all. Candle prints look strong, although forecasters are still unconvinced. Was the new low in silver just the big guys flushing out any new longs? Maybe.
Crude had the big move today. If the EIA report comes in reasonably strong, crude could well break out above 70 once more.
And it looks as though 10-year rates > 3% are back on the table too, especially with SPX back in an uptrend.
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