PM Daily Market Commentary – 8/07/2013
Gold finished the day up $4.90 on light volume to 1286.40, with silver up $0.10 to 19.54, moving the gold/silver ratio down to 65.83. After NY close, PM continued moving up; in asia, gold is at 1293.60 and silver has moved to 19.73.
An important part of this story is the dollar, which has made a new cycle low of 81.31, closing below its 200 day moving average as well as the former support level of 81.50. The buck was off -0.47% today, which is a moderately large move as these things go.
Had the volume in gold been higher today, I would interpret the price action as showing a possible reversal, but with the low volume its harder to draw any conclusions. The miners were also relatively low volume and the price action didn't confirm any possible reversal – an initial early modest rally early in NY trading was sold off prior to the close, leaving mining shares down slightly.
Gold remains in a downtrend in all three timeframes. Silver does as well, but the downtrend is gentler, volume on up-days is higher, and I'd say it just looks better behaved right now especially in the last few days. So far silver hasn't broken below 19; mostly it is moving sideways with a slight downward bias. This has caused the gold/silver ratio to close below its 20 EMA for the first time in a month, which I would interpret as PM positive.