PM Daily Market Commentary – 7/27/2017
Gold fell -1.70 to 1265.00 on +10.60 to 1266.70 on very heavy volume, while silver climbed +0.16 to 16.64 on moderate volume. A relatively modest rally in the buck did not do any favors for PM today – PM appears to be on the cusp of marking a high.
Gold chopped sideways within a fairly broad range today, ending up printing a spinning top candle which the code felt had a 42% chance of marking the top. The gold forecaster fell -0.09 to +0.50 – still bullish. Gold’s RSI7 is 72, which is just slightly overbought. Could this be the top for gold? Maybe.
Open interest at COMEX for GC fell -15,964 contracts.
Rate rise chances (Dec 2017) remains at 47%.
Silver tried rallying today, making a new high to 16.81, but then falling back into the close. Print was a shooting star, which the code thought had a 45% chance of marking a high. Forecaster fell hard, losing -0.29 to read +0.19. Silver remains bullish, but not by much. It looks as though silver is having trouble with resistance at the 50 MA. Silver’s chart certainly looks worse than gold’s chart.
Open interest at COMEX for SI fell -802 contracts.
The gold/silver ratio fell -0.10 to 76.15. That’s bullish.
Miners did poorly today, with GDX down -1.18% on moderate volume, while GDXJ fell -1.76% on moderate volume. GDX candle print was a dark cloud cover, which has a 57% chance of marking the top here. The forecaster dropped -0.13 to a still-bullish +0.42. GDXJ printed a bearish harami, which has a 32% chance of marking the high for GDXJ. GDX closed below its 200 MA.
The GDXJ:GDX ratio fell, as did the GDX:$GOLD ratio. That’s bearish.
Platinum fell -0.71%, palladium rose +1.01%, and copper fell -0.12%. Platinum appears to have moved into a downtrend, at least according to its forecaster.
The buck rose +0.22 [+0.24%] to 93.65, printing a long white candle which the code felt had a 53% chance of marking the low. The forecaster jumped +0.46 to an almost-bullish -0.03. It appears as though the buck is quite close to reversing direction.
Crude rose +0.43 to 49.15, continuing to move higher after the bullish EIA report on Wednesday. Candle print was a spinning top, which the code felt has a 42% chance of marking the top. Forecaster jumped +0.30 to +1.12, which is a very bullish rating. Crude just continues to move higher.
SPX fell -2.51 to 2475.42. SPX was hit hard after noon in the US, dropping more than 20 points in an hour, but then the buyers showed up and pulled prices back to almost even. Energy did best (XLE:+1.02%) while sickcare did worst (XLV:-0.69%), with financials and industrials also losing on the day. The candle code felt the spinning top print was a continuation – presumably bullish.
VIX rose +0.51 to 10.11.
TLT fell -0.49%, making a new low. The long-legged doji candle had a 36% chance of marking the low. Bonds continue to signal risk on.
JNK fell -0.03%, a slight drop which leaves JNK quite near its new high. JNK continues to signal risk on.
CRB rose +0.94%, with 4 of 5 groups rallying today led by energy. CRB continues to recover, and is now closing in on its 200 MA.
The stars and moons are starting to align for a reversal in PM, with the dollar supporting this picture by also apparently being on the edge of a bullish reversal of its own. We aren’t quite there yet, but just one more day of this sort of move would probably result in a trend change for gold and silver.
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Nice initial spike after weak data. If fundamentals are at all driving the price action in PMs, we should see plenty of buying today. If it's all technical driven/manipulation, then we should se selling through the day. After an initial spike, selling has started. We'll see if it's a blip or the course for the day.