PM Daily Market Commentary – 6/25/2015
Gold fell -1.80 to 1172.40 on moderately light volume, while silver fell -0.05 to 15.81 on moderately heavy volume. Both metals traded mostly sideways and lower in a narrow range. Trading was relatively quiet.
Gold managed to avoid making a new low today, which is about the only positive thing I can say. It continues to look weak.
Mining shares dropped today, with GDX falling -1.03% on moderate volume, making a new cycle low on the day. GDXJ also fell, losing -0.64% on light volume. Once again, juniors outperformed seniors, an ongoing oddity which started May 1, and looks much like someone flipped on a switch. Perhaps a big trader is slowly unwinding a "short GDXJ long GDX" paired trade.
The buck once again tried to rise above its 50 MA today and failed, dropping just -0.03 to 95.39. It looks to me like the market is in a bit of a holding pattern waiting for the Greek situation to be resolved.
SPX (US equities) continued dropping, losing -6.27 to 2102.31 and dropping below the 50 MA once again. SPX closed at the low of the day. The US market may be forming a lower high, but until the market drops through although VIX shot higher, up +0.75 to 14.01. I have to say, buying VIX at 12 has been an awesome trade over the past few months…sadly I didn't follow my own advice this time.
There were a number of economic reports out today; the Personal Income & Outlays report, which showed an uptick in both consumer income and spending, a Services PMI which was surprisingly slow, well as a Kansas City Fed Manufacturing report which was solidly negative. Summarized: happy consumers and unhappy manufacturing, with a suggestion that services are starting to fade now also.
Bond ETF TLT fell -0.35%. Bonds continue to look ill – here's a chart, complete with a death cross and an unpleasant-looking downtrend line.
The CRB (commodity index) eeked out a gain, up +0.14%. Commodities are currently trend-less, and today didn't change that situation at all.
WTIC (west texas crude) continued yesterday's selloff, losing -0.57 to 59.64, but remaining well within the recent 8-week trading range. Brent is looking weaker, unable to rise back above its 50 MA.
Same story different day. PM still no catalyst, drifting lower, with senior miners making new lows.
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Interesting silver spike lower – a massive assault that hammered silver down 40 cents in a few minutes, but then found buyers at 15.45. About 30 minutes later, silver had rebounded back to its starting point and a bit beyond and is now slightly up on the day, at 15.84. If we close at these levels, we may have our low in silver.
This is one of those events I have been waiting for. Our friendly bankers sometimes mark the lows by tripping any remaining long stops with an attack of this nature. Its a snakepit. If we only had position limits…
"If we had ham, we could have ham and eggs. If we had eggs."
Now the market just needs to cooperate through end of day.
…until someone loses an eye.
My view remains that this 'snakepit' has very little, if anything, to do with fundamentals and nearly everything to do with the games da boyz can play to make money.
They run the tables, can see the whole book, and know which way the other gamblers are all positioned. So they accumulate positions, run the stops, sweep the table, make oodles of money, and then do it all over again.
Why people keep bellying up to that table in that casino is the enduring mystery to me.
Buy physical, hold onto it. Accumulate a core insurance position and then dollar cost average the rest. I really think it's that simple…and that (psychologically) difficult.
Until we reverse the issue of consciousness being local to non-local. We will continue to use our lives in non-productive wealth accumulating life destroying ways. The truth? Life creates matter and the only reality is the view board in your mind. Robert Lanza tells it like it is.