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PM Daily Market Commentary – 5/7/2018

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  • Mon, May 07, 2018 - 10:06pm

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    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 5/7/2018

Gold fell -1.40 [-0.11%] to 1314.60 on moderate volume, while silver dropped -0.06 [-0.36%] on very light volume. The buck made a new high today, up +0.20%; the metals were definitely affected, but not all that badly.

Gold didn’t move very much today; it printed a neutral spinning top, which sent the forecaster up +0.14 to +0.07, which is a buy signal for gold. Interestingly, gold in Euros has been in an uptrend for the past 5 days, and GC.EUR weekly has issued a buy signal this week too.  That’s a positive sign for gold.  Now if gold can close above the 9 MA, then I’ll start to become more of a believer in the rebound.

COMEX GC open interest fell –3,367 contracts.

Rate rise chances (June 2018) is at 100%.

Silver mostly moved lower today, printing a neutral short black candle; this drove the forecaster down -0.39 to -0.07, which is a sell signal for silver. Volume was very light.  Silver appears to have run into resistance at its 50 MA.

COMEX SI open interest rose by 524 contracts today.

The gold/silver ratio rose by +0.20 to 79.70. That’s bearish.

Miners tried to rally but the move mostly failed, with GDX unchanged on very light volume, while GDXJ dropped -0.63% on moderate volume. XAU forecaster dropped -0.06 to -0.28. Weekly is in a downtrend, but the monthly remains bullish.

The GDXJ:GDX ratio fell, while the GDX:$GOLD ratio moved higher. That’s neutral.

Platinum edged up +0.05%, palladium moved up +0.32%, and copper fell -0.26%. Both platinum and palladium are in relatively new uptrends, while copper issued a sell signal just today.

The dollar rose +0.18 [+0.20%] to 92.38. The buck made a new high today, although it does appear to be losing a bit of momentum. Buck remains in an uptrend in both weekly and monthly timeframes.

Crude moved up +0.20 [+0.29%] to 69.97, moving sharply higher intraday to a new high of 70.84, but losing much of the move by end of day. The high wave candle was neutral, and the CL forecaster fell -0.04 to +0.54, which is still a strong uptrend. Trump’s Iran decision is coming up soon, and so far, the odds appear to favor a renewal of sanctions on Iran.

SPX rose +9.21 [+0.35%] to 2672.63. SPX was actually up around 18 points, until oil topped out and started to reverse. The spinning top for SPX was neutral, as was the forecaster, which remains at +0.05. Tech did best (XLK:+0.70%) while consumer staples brought up the rear (XLP:-0.62%). Sector map looked relatively bullish.

VIX fell -0.02 to 14.75.

TLT fell -0.16%, but still remain in a slow uptrend. TY edged down -0.01%, and remains in a downtrend. Bonds may be turning back down.

JNK moved up +0.08%; even with this tiny move, it ended up printing a swing low, which has a 42% chance of being a bullish reversal. Forecaster agreed, jumping +0.88 to +0.02, which is a very tentative buy signal. JNK is down around support.

CRB rose +0.19%, with just 2 of 5 sectors rising, led by energy (+1.50%). Today was a new closing high for CRB.

The Euro is actually moving lower fairly rapidly – it is down 5% over the past 3 weeks. Gold in Euros is doing surprisingly well; on the weekly chart, GC.EUR looks as though it might be about to break out of its recent trading range. If it does so, that should keep gold from selling off too hard even if the Euro continues to tank.

I know I didn’t give you guys a weekly report this weekend – I was just swamped with stuff, which included a certain conference I just had to attend, among other things.

So here’s a COT report from last Friday:

For gold, the commercial net position increased by +30k contracts; mostly that’s -26k shorts and +4k longs. Commercials, ringing the cash register. Commercial long positions are quite high. Managed money net fell by -60k contracts, which is a big move. That was +36k new shorts, and -24k dumped longs. Managed money is nearing a COT low – they could be there now.

For silver, the commercial net rose by +20k contracts. That’s a big move. Mostly that was -17k shorts covered, and +2.6k new longs. After all that cash-register ringing, we are moving back towards a record high commercial net. Managed money net fell by -28k contracts – and that’s a really big move. That was +25k new shorts, and -3k longs dumped. Managed money is leaping in short.

These were some fairly large changes. As a result, we could be at or near a COT low for both gold and silver. Who knows, it might mean something this time.

I leave you with a chart of weekly GC.EUR.  Its actually looking good.  Of course, we have another 4 days to go before this week closes.

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