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PM Daily Market Commentary – 5/3/2018

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  • Fri, May 04, 2018 - 12:18am



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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 5/3/2018

Gold rose +7.00 [+0.54%] to 1312.80 on heavy volume, while silver moved up +0.04 [+0.27%] on moderate volume. The buck actually retreated today, dropping -0.11%, a relatively modest move, but enough to encourage a reasonable rally in the metals.

Gold rallied in Asia, and in London, spiking to its intraday peak at around 8 am, but then falling into the close in New York. The long white candle was neutral, and forecaster moved up +0.08 to -0.40. That’s not very compelling.

COMEX GC open interest fell –6,691 contracts.

Rate rise chances (June 2018) is at 100%. I’m not sure if that’s a bug or not.

Silver moved very slowly higher today, spiking up at around 8 am along with gold only to fall back to its slow uptrend line. Silver printed a shooting star candle which was actually a bullish continuation; forecaster agreed, moving up +0.17 to +0.24. It wasn’t a very convincing move higher, but forecaster didn’t seem to mind.

COMEX SI open interest fell by -1,290 contracts today.

The gold/silver ratio rose by +0.21 to 79.81. That’s bullish.

Miners did fairly well, with GDX up +1.21% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ rose +1.24% on moderate volume. Mostly, the miners just gapped up at the open and chopped sideways all day long. Both candle prints were neutral. XAU forecaster rose +0.27 to +0.16, which is a buy signal for the miners. Things are looking a bit better for the mining shares.

The GDXJ:GDX ratio rose slightly, and the GDX:$GOLD ratio also moved higher. That’s neutral.


Platinum rallied +0.93%, palladium moved up +0.32%, and copper rose +0.96%. Both platinum and copper issued buy signals today, and platinum printed a swing low (72% reversal) also. If platinum’s reversal holds, it could help put in a low for the whole group.

The dollar fell -0.10 [-0.11%] to 92.05. Candle print was a bearish engulfing, but the rating was poor – only a 29% chance of marking the top. Forecaster fell -0.10 to +0.53, which is still a strong uptrend.

Crude had a good day, rallying +0.80 [+1.18%] to 68.48. Crude has been chopping sideways for the past three weeks, still quite close to the highs but unable to break out. Today’s move caused the forecaster to jump +0.45 to +0.31, which was a buy signal for crude.

SPX fell -5.94 [-0.23%] to 2629.73. SPX took a brisk dip in the morning, bottoming out about 30 points down around 11 am, after which it bounced back regaining most of the losses by end of day. The doji candle was a 36% chance of a reversal – that’s a good rating for a doji. Forecaster didn’t agree, dropping -0.17 to -0.46. Sickcare led lower (XLV:-0.90%) while materials did best (XLB:+0.46%). Sector map looked relatively bearish.

VIX fell -0.07 to 15.90

TLT rose +0.45%, with most of the move coming as a gap up at the open. This just means that bonds rallied in the futures markets overnight. TY confirms, rising +0.16, printing a swing low (54% bullish reversal), as well as a buy signal from forecaster.

JNK fell -0.03%, practically unchanged.  JNK remains in a downtrend.

CRB rose +0.25%, with 4 of 5 sectors rising, led by livestock (+1.06%). CRB is slowly moving higher, possibly headed for a breakout.

Things are looking a bit better today for PM. Nonfarm Payrolls is out tomorrow at 8:30 am.

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