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PM Daily Market Commentary – 4/19/2018

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  • Fri, Apr 20, 2018 - 12:12am

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    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 4/19/2018

Gold fell -4.40 [-0.33%] to 1348.00 on heavy volume, while silver rose +0.05 [+0.26%] to 17.25 on extremely heavy volume. The buck rallied fairly strongly today [+0.38%]; the currency move took a toll on gold, and much of the commodity complex, but did not seem to affect silver much at all.

Gold tracked the Euro for the most part, initially moving higher, and then after Asia closed, it moved lower in fits and starts for the rest of the day. The spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, and the forecaster ticked down -0.05 to -0.07. That’s just a slight downtrend. Gold’s move down today was entirely driven by currency moves.  Gold remains above all 3 moving averages.

COMEX GC open interest rose 4,252 contracts.

Rate rise chances (June 2018) fell to 94%.

Silver chopped sideways all day long, making a new high to 17.36, but it was unable to hold onto most of the move. The high wave candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved up +0.12 to +0.83, which is a very strong uptrend.  Even though the rest of the commodity complex fell, silver managed to move higher, although not very much.  Volume was very heavy.

COMEX SI open interest rose by 747 contracts today.

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.46 to 78.14. That’s bullish.

Miners moved higher; GDX climbed +0.35% on moderate volume, while GDXJ climbed +0.26% on moderately light volume. XAU forecaster climbed +0.31 to +0.49, which puts XAU into a strong uptrend. Miners rallying on a day when gold fell is relatively rare – and looks bullish to me.

Today, the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell slightly, while the GDX:$GOLD ratio rose. That’s slightly bullish.

Platinum fell -0.58%, palladium dropped -0.36%, while copper moved down -1.09%. All 3 metals had somewhat bearish-looking candle prints; platinum (shooting star: 36% reversal), palladium (bearish high wave: 30%), copper (bearish harami: 33%) but forecasters remain in uptrends, at least for now.

The buck rose +0.34 [+0.38%] to 89.58. Most of the move came after 10:30 am; I didn’t see the move lined up with any particular report, so I’m not sure what the cause of the rally was. The closing white marubozu was a bullish continuation, and the forecaster jumped +0.19 to -0.03. The buck is close to reversing direction. Today’s move took the buck back above both the 50 MA and the 9.

Crude fell today, dropping -0.60 [-0.87%] to 68.15, after first making a new high to 69.55. The bearish harami was actually neutral, and forecaster dropped -0.09 to +0.45, which is still a strong uptrend. Perhaps it was just a day of rest after such a large rally yesterday.

SPX fell -15.51 [-0.57%] to 2693.13. SPX started dropping overnight in the futures markets, sold off fairly hard for the first half of the day, then bounced back a few hours before the close. Candle print was a swing high (33% bearish reversal), and forecaster dropped -0.33 to +0.08. SPX might have just run out of gas. Consumer staples led the market lower (XLP:-2.89%), while financials actually did best (XLF:+1.53%). It was a very wide differential between the best and worst performers today. The drop in staples was mostly about tobacco companies, which sold off fairly sharply on a fall in revenues. “Hey wait, you mean cigarettes are bad for you?”  I guess people worldwide have started to figure this out.

VIX rose +0.56 to 15.96.

TLT fell -0.81%, continuing to drop after yesterday’s sell signal. TY fell also, dropping -0.23% and making a new multi-year low. TY is back to downtrends in all 3 timeframes. The 10-year yield rose to +2.91%. For bonds to drop this badly on a day when equities fell – that’s a bad sign for bonds.

JNK fell also, losing -0.28% and following through off yesterday’s swing high. JNK forecaster fell -0.57 to -0.25, which is a sell signal for JNK. That’s a risk off sign.

CRB fell -0.55%, with 3 of 5 sectors dropping, led by livestock (-1.53%). Today’s candle print looked like a dark cloud cover, which is a bearish pattern.

While silver managed to move higher, it seemed like most everything else today dropped; equities, bonds, and commodities.  I was a bit surprised that the miners managed to eek out a gain too.

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