PM Daily Market Commentary – 3/31/2014
Gold closed down -10.40 to 1284.50 on moderate volume; silver was off -0.07 to 19.75 on light volume. Gold traded sideways into NY, where it more or less sold off modestly for the rest of the day, making a new low at 1282 before rallying just a bit into the close. Silver looked a bit better, although it too closed down.
The dollar traded up through its 50 day MA, but failed to hold, closing down for the day -0.10 to 80.24. The move through the 50 was brief – just a spike higher that was quickly sold. If the dollar can get some downside momentum going, it should help gold out, at least to some degree.
GDX was off -2.05% on heavy volume, and GDXJ was off -2.87% also on heavy volume. It looks like that two-day bounce from Thursday/Friday is now being sold. The "high risk rally" in the miners isn't dead yet, since we haven't made new lows on GDX, but it is looking a bit frail. Perhaps the mining shares need one more good high volume flush to get the longs interested in buying in force again.
Once again I'm waiting for those COMEX buyers to appear with some volume; gold is modestly oversold, but buying in the futures – when it happens – is looking pretty lackluster. Once these downtrends get started, they seem to just keep going on their own until buyers show up to cause the shorts some pain.
There was a downspike to 1277 that was bought after market hours – early in Japan's trading day – but its too soon to tell if this will turn into anything meaningful.