PM Daily Market Commentary – 2/21/2019
Gold plunged -15.09 [-1.12%] to 1328.58 on very heavy volume, while silver plunged -0.25 [-1.59%] on extremely heavy volume once more. The other metals all fell too, as did crude [-0.61%], SPX [-0.38%], TLT [-0.89%], while the buck rallied [+0.18%].
Gold followed through off yesterday’s shooting star, falling for much of the day, ending right near the lows. The confirmed shooting star/swing high candle print was bearish (48% reversal), and forecaster plunged hard, issuing a sell signal for gold. Gold/Euros also issued a sell signal too. Gold remains in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes. It is also above the 9 MA, and remains far above its uptrend line.
COMEX GC open interest fell -5,483 contracts; that looks like a bit of cash-register ringing by the shorts on the decline.
Futures are showing a 1% chance of a rate increase in March, and a split in December (4% chance of an increase, a 9% chance of a cut).
Silver looked fairly similar to gold, dropping for most of the day, ending at the lows. Volume was once again immense. The confirmed shooting star/swing high was extremely bearish (60% reversal – a very negative rating), and forecaster plunged, resulting in a sell signal for silver. Silver is now in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. Silver ended its decline right at the 9 MA.
COMEX SI open interest fell -4,792 contracts; that’s a big decline, and suggests cash-register-ringing by the shorts.
The gold/silver ratio rose +0.36 to 83.77. That’s bearish.
Miners gapped down at the open, and then fell slowly the rest of the day; GDX lost -1.63% on moderately heavy volume, while GDXJ dropped -2.01% on moderately heavy volume also. XAU fell -1.41%, printing a swing high candle (49% reversal), and while forecaster dropped, it was not enough for a sell signal for XAU. (both GDX and GDXJ did issue sell signals, however). XAU remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.
The GDX:$GOLD ratio fell -0.51%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell -0.38%. That’s a bit bearish.
Platinum dropped -0.52%, palladium fell -1.17%, while copper moved down -0.55%. These were not dramatic moves, and all 3 other metals remain in uptrends. Palladium did issue a swing high that looked quite bearish (60% reversal) – perhaps it was the extremely heavy volume.
The buck rose +0.17 [+0.18%] to 96.07. The spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster remains in a strong downtrend. However the rally did manage to unwind the weekly sell signal; the buck is now in a downtrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.
Major currency moves were limited to just AUD [-1.00%],
Crude rose +0.80 [+1.41%] to 57.56. Crude spiked to a new high: 57.61, but only momentarily; once hitting the high, crude spent the rest of the day selling off. The short black candle was bearish (47% reversal), and forecaster plunged, but not quite enough for a sell signal. Crude remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes, but the daily will probably issue a sell signal if crude drops tomorrow.
SPX fell -9.82 [-0.35%] to 2774.88. SPX made a new high in the futures markets overnight, but then spent the rest of the day selling off, although the daytime trading range was fairly narrow. The short black candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved lower, but not enough for a sell signal. SPX remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.
Utilities led (XLU:+0.73%) along with staples (XLP:+0.29%) while energy (XLE:-1.55%) and communication (XLC:-0.93%) did worst. This was a bearish sector map – it looks like a rotation into the safe haven equities.
VIX rose +0.44 to 14.46.
TLT fell -0.89%, a large drop; TLT is now in a strong downtrend. TY fell too, losing -0.30%, which was a confirmed bearish NR7 (49% reversal), as well as causing a forecaster sell signal. TY ended the day below its 9 MA. TY remains in an uptrend the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-year treasury yield rose +3.4 bp to 2.69%. TY looks as though it is just about ready to break down.
JNK fell -0.08%, basically going nowhere. JNK remains in a gentle uptrend.
CRB rose +0.08%, which is a new high. 4 of 5 sectors rose, led by livestock (+0.91%).
Today’s plunge confirmed yesterday’s shooting star for gold. Gold is now in a nascent downtrend, silver looks quite a bit worse, while the miners remain in decent shape. All of the other metals remain in uptrends, at least for now anyway.
We also saw hints of selling in both SPX and crude – not enough to change the daily trend, but it definitely seemed as though most everything moved lower today.
I’m going to take my guidance from the miners. While they saw some selling, it was relatively light. Could we blame the selling in gold and silver on some kind of official intervention? The increase in OI recently was quite significant, and for sure they don’t want to see gold break out above 1370. Even platinum did fairly well today in comparison to gold and silver. That makes me a little suspicious.
The real test will come if and when SPX starts to sell off. My guess is, money will resume flowing into gold when risk off returns. If that stops being true, gold will most likely sell off pretty hard. If it continues to be true, then gold remains a buy-the-dip sort of item. We will just have to see how it goes.
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I think people should think about getting out of e-coin until they understand the implications.
Greg Hunter interviews Craig Hemke on USAWatchdog, “Bear Market in Gold & Sliver is Over“. My apologies if someone has already posted this somewhere else on the site. What caught my eye was the comment below by Craig Hemke. Have others here seen/discussed this before? It was news to me.
. . . ”Hemke says there are several factors leading to the perfect storm of price explosion for precious metals. On April 1 new rules will allow banks to hold gold as a so-called tier 1 asset. Hemke points out, “This is why central banks are buying gold too. . . . Gold will be considered a riskless asset just like Treasury bonds. The way it is currently structured now, if you had $1 billion in gold in your reserves in the bank, you could only count half of that as your reserves. . . . So, $1 billion in gold only counted as $500 million. Now, it will count for the full $1billion.”
Can’t wait to get another set of shooting stars with the miners today. Nice gap up with buying, followed by a sell-off into the close. Yay. We’ll see if gold and silver can finish positive.
I’m not an expert on banking rules, but I don’t think the Basel rules will result in banks buying gold. Basel 3 just determines the riskyness of the banks assets in a complex calculation to meet minimum reserve rules. Banks are more likely to want to hold assets with lower Basel risk ratings as it gives them more “reserves value” into this calculation.
However, banks with USD liabilities (eg customer deposits) back them with USD assets (like mortages, bonds etc). It makes no sense IMO for a bank to back a USD liability with gold, because if the gold price goes down, then the bank has to book a loss.
For a bank involved in bullion banking (ie it has unallocated client deposits which it lends to miners and industrial users) then it makes sense to back those gold liabilities with gold asset. So if anything, the Basel Tier 1 thing is likely only relvant to banks involved in bullion banking, making it easier/less costly to do gold lending.
Interesting, bronsuchecki. Thanks for your response!