PM Daily Market Commentary – 12/10/2019
Gold climbed +2.78 [+0.19%] to 1470.01 on moderately light volume, and silver rose +0.06 [+0.36%] to 16.72 on light volume also. The buck dropped [-0.24%] along with SPX [-0.11%] and bonds [10y yield +0.4 bp], while crude moved higher [+0.32%].
Gold moved higher during the London session, topping out just before the US opened, but then fell into the close. The spinning top candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved higher, moving back into an uptrend. Today’s slight rally also pulled the weekly into an uptrend too; gold is now in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes, while gold/Euros remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
COMEX GC open interest fell -395 contracts. Current open interest for GC: 85% of global annual production, down -0.05% today.
Futures are predicting a 2% chance of a rate increase at the Fed’s upcoming meeting this week.
Silver moved higher along with gold, but it managed to retain most of its gains into the close. The short white candle was a bearish continuation, but forecaster moved higher, and silver daily is now back to a no-trend state. Silver is now in a slight downtrend in just the monthly timeframe. Trends are very weak.
COMEX SI open interest fell -1.1K contracts today. Current open interest for SI: 115% of global annual production, down -0.64%.
The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.15 to 87.92. That’s slightly bullish.
Miners opened up, fell during the morning, then rallied back up in the afternoon.
GDX climbed +0.78% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ rose +0.47% on light volume.
XAU rallied [+0.98%], the short white/NR7 candle was unrated, and forecaster moved higher but remains in a downtrend. Even so, the weekly and monthly forecasters remain in an uptrend.
The GDX:gold ratio climbed +0.59%, while the GDXJ:GDXJ ratio dropped -0.31%. That’s slightly bullish.
Platinum fell -1.40 [-0.16%], palladium rose +1.60 [+0.09%], and copper rose +0.01 [+0.20%]. Not much movement in the other metals too.
Platinum rose +27.10 [+2.93%], palladium rose +16.40 [+0.88%], and copper rose +0.01 [+0.36%]. That makes 5 days up in a row for copper – a new 5-month high just today. Palladium made a new all time high once more, and even platinum broke out of its recent trading range to the upside.
The buck dropped -0.23 [-0.24%] to 96.96 on heavy volume. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster edged lower but remains in a slight uptrend. The buck remains mixed; uptrend on the daily, downtrend on the weekly, and neutral on the monthly timeframe.
There were no large currency moves today.
Crude climbed +0.19 [+0.32%] to 58.90 on moderate volume. The spinning top candle was neutral, and forecaster moved higher, and remains in an uptrend – in all 3 timeframes.
The API report released at 4:30 pm was bearish; crude: +1.41m, gasoline: +4.9m, distillates: +3.2m, and crude immediately dropped 30 cents following the report.
SPX dropped -3.44 [-0.11%] to 3132.52 on moderate volume. SPX fell perhaps 20 points in the futures markets overnight, but managed to bounce back before market open. The spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, but forecaster moved higher, and remains in a strong uptrend. SPX remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.
REITs [-0.70%] led the market lower, along with materials [-0.60%] while sickcare [+0.22%] and energy [+0.20%] did best. This was a somewhat bullish sector map.
VIX fell -0.18 to 15.68.
TLT was virtually unchanged [+0.01%], the long black candle was neutral, but forecaster jumped back into an uptrend. The 30-year yield fell -1 bp to 2.26%.
TY inched down [-0.05%], the long black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved higher but remains in a downtrend. TY remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The 10-year yield rose +0.4 bp to 1.83%.
JNK climbed [+0.26%], the long white candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved lower but remains in a strong uptrend. BAA.AAA differential remains at +88 bp. No worries about credit according to this indicator.
CRB jumped +0.55%, and is on the verge of breaking out to a new multi-month high. All 5 sectors rose, led by agriculture (+0.66%).
FOMC meeting is taking place today, with the usual announcement at 2pm, and the press conference at 2:30. Also – CPI report released at 8:30 am.
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Gold up $7 before the Fed. Miners up too. Setting up for the typical post-Fed reversal. Kind of expect stocks to catch a bid too, even though I don’t expect anything new from the Fed.
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Cold Rain.
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