PM Daily Market Commentary – 12/09/2019
Gold climbed +1.79 [+0.12%] to 1467.23 on light volume, and silver climbed +0.03 [+0.18%] to 16.66 on moderately light volume. The buck moved lower [-0.08%], SPX fell too [-0.32%], along with crude [-0.42%], while bonds inched higher [10Y yield -1.3 bp].
Gold chopped sideways in a narrow range today. The spinning top/NR7 candle was unrated, and forecaster moved lower into its downtrend. Gold is in a downtrend in the daily and monthly timeframes. Gold/Euros is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
COMEX GC open interest fell -1.8K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 86% of global annual production, down -0.22% today.
Futures are predicting no chance of a rate increase at the Fed’s upcoming meeting this week.
Silver also just chopped sideways in a narrow range. Silver’s short white candle was a bearish continuation, and while forecaster moved slightly higher, silver remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
COMEX SI open interest fell -1.8K contracts. That was 3 days of global annual production in paper removed from the market. Current open interest for SI: 116% of global annual production, down -1.05% today.
The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.05 to 88.07. That’s neutral.
Miners gapped up at the open, then fell for much of the day. GDX moved down -0.19% on moderately light volume, while GDXJ climbed +0.13% on moderately light volume. XAU inched down [-0.05%], the long black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster fell deeper into its downtrend. XAU remains in an uptrend in both weekly and monthly timeframes.
The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.31%, while the GDXJ:GDXJ ratio climbed +0.32%. That’s neutral.
Platinum fell -1.40 [-0.16%], palladium rose +1.60 [+0.09%], and copper rose +0.01 [+0.20%]. There was not much movement in the other metals either.
The buck moved down -0.08 [-0.08%] to 97.19 on extremely heavy volume. The bearish harami was mildly bearish (32%), but forecaster jumped into an uptrend. The buck is now in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes, but the trends are quite weak.
There were no large currency moves today.
Crude dropped -0.25 [-0.42%] to 58.71 on moderate volume. The bearish harami pattern was mildly bearish (32%), and forecaster fell but it remains in an uptrend. Crude remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.
SPX dropped -9.95 [-0.32%] to 3135.96 on moderate volume. The bearish harami pattern was actually a bullish continuation, and forecaster fell but remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Was today a reversal for SPX? We might be seeing a “lower high” in formation right now, but so far my technicals aren’t signaling a bearish reversal just yet.
Sickcare [-0.70%] led the market lower, along with tech [-0.53%] while REITs [+0.13%] and discretionary [+0.12%] did best. This was a somewhat bearish sector map.
VIX jumped +2.24 to 15.86. That’s a big move higher in the VIX, given a relatively small drop in SPX. Hmm.
TLT climbed [+0.22%], the short black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster moved higher but remains in a downtrend. The 30-year yield fell -2 bp to 2.27%. TY inched up [+0.02%], the short white/NR7 was unrated, and forecaster dropped deeper into what is now a strong downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The 10 year yield fell -1.3 bp to 1.83%.
JNK inched up [+0.02%], the short black candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved higher into its strong uptrend.
JNK climbed [+0.09%], and the forecaster moved higher into its uptrend. BAA.AAA differential remains at +88 bp. No worries about credit according to this indicator.
CRB fell -0.02%, with 2 of 5 sectors falling, led by energy (-0.49%).
Well, if you get the sense not much happened today…well that’s pretty much what I saw too. SPX had a relatively rare down day, and it might be forming a reversal pattern – and the VIX sure did scream higher. Maybe it is a sign – but my code isn’t confirming just yet.
FOMC meeting starts tomorrow, with the announcement at 2pm on Wednesday, and a Powell Press Conference at 2:30 pm. We could see some excitement following the press conference if the Fed says something surprising.
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