PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/30/2020

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   27 posts
Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 26 total)
  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 12:32am

    #1

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2296

    count placeholder3

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/30/2020

Gold fell -10.43 [-0.58%] to 1780.51 on moderate volume, and silver moved down -0.05 [-0.22%] to 22.72 on moderate volume. The buck moved higher [+0.05%], SPX fell [-0.46%], crude dropped too [-1.01%], while bonds rallied [the 10-Year yield fell -4.0 bp].

Gold fell in Asia making a new low to 1767, chopped sideways, but managed to recover some of its losses by end of day. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Gold/euros fell -7.36 [-0.49%] to 1489.62 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest fell -2.8K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 50% of global annual production, down -0.26% today. 4560 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

It was a new low for gold; the candle print wasn’t bullish, but for some reason, forecaster seemed really positive. There was no short-covering. A number of contracts stood for delivery, but the 4.5k contracts was peanuts compared to the 25k-30k deliveries that happened during the summer. RSI7=16 for gold, which is quite oversold.

Silver allso fell in Asia, making a new low to 21.96, then rallied back strongly, erasing almost all its losses by end of day. The takuri line candle was a probable bullish reversal (51%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest fell -537 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 88% of global annual production, down -0.31% today. 3599 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.29 to 78.37. That’s bullish.

The dragonfly doji/takuri line candle print was very highly rated; I’m guessing this may well mark a low for silver. Forecaster hasn’t quite come around yet, but if we get a confirmation tomorrow (a close above today’s high) then it could easily flip back into an uptrend. Deliveries were reasonably strong, but not quite up to June’s 11k level.

Miners gapped down at the open, tried to rally, fell again, but then proceeded to rally through end of day, closing at the highs. GDX moved up +1.31% on moderate volume, and GDXJ rallied +0.85% on moderately light volume. XAU climbed +0.72%, the closing white marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. XAU is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio climbed +1.87%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.46%. That’s bullish.

The miners continue to outperform both gold and silver. Someone appears eager to buy thhe miners. This supports the whole thesis that the gold/silver correction was just a ploy to reduce deliveries at end-of-month, as well as (perhaps) provide cheaper mining shares for Big Money to hoover up at a discount.

Platinum fell -2.84 [-0.29%], and palladium dropped -53.46 [-2.24%]. Platinum largely went nowhere, but remains in an uptrend – and above all 3 moving averages. Palladium’s harami pattern was bearish (36%) but for now it too remains in an uptrend.

Copper climbed +0.02 [+0.59%] to 3.43 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a low-percentage bearish reversal (29%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

This was another 7-year high for copper; the candle print looks a bit iffy, but copper remains in a strong uptrend.

The buck climbed +0.05 [+0.05%] to 91.80 on heavy volume. The long white candle was a probable bullish reversal (53%), forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. The buck is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

Major currency moves included: GBP [+0.32%], AUD [-0.38%].

Today marked a new 3-year low for the buck, but it managed to bounce back reasonably strongly. The candle print looked strong, and forecaster was also convinced enough to flip back – barely – into an uptrend. The buck really needs a close above the 9 MA to convince me, however.

Crude plunged -0.46 [-1.01%] to 45.12 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, falling into a downtrend. Crude remains in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Well, maybe a top for crude, at least for now – although the downtrend is extremely mild, at least so far.

SPX dropped -16.72 [-0.46%] to 3621.63 on heavy volume. The swing high candle was neutral, forecaster dropped, dropping into a downtrend. SPX is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Energy [-5.85%] led the market lower, along with financials [-2.12%], while tech [+0.66%] and sickcare [+0.27%] did best. This was a mostly neutral sector map.

The VIX dropped -0.27 to 20.57.

This was the weakest possible swing high; SPX remains above the 9 MA, very near to the all time highs. Forecaster was quite unhappy, however, and fell into a downtrend. NYSE advance ratio had a rating of 30%, which does look bearish – and in fact, the ratio’s moving average is more than hinting that the top might be in. Hmmm. So mixed signals for SPX.

TLT dropped -0.12%. The doji candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. TLT is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes.

TY inched up +0.02%. The bearish doji star candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. TY is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-Year yield was unchanged at +0.84%.

Bonds were largely unchanged today.

JNK dropped -0.12%. The confirmed bearish nr7 candle was neutral, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. JNK is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes.

Crappy debt sold off early, but bounced back by end of day. The uptrend is weakening but remains in place.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand was unchanged at +0.00 tons, with 1195 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -4.48%
* PHYS -2.53%
* PSLV -4.50%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.33%
* silver [100 oz]: +5.53%

Physical ETF discounts remain wide; premiums on gold bars at retail remain moderate, while the silver premiums have increased somewhat.

Summary

Gold fell today, silver fell then rebounded, and the miners moved higher. This was the last day of the month – the time when contracts stand for delivery – and the last thing the banksters want is for contract-holders to ask for big gold bars to be delivered. So, when the retail demand is relatively light, the banksters pound the price of the metals in the days leading up to contract expiration, in order to reduce the number of delivery requests they have to fulfill.

At least, this is my sense. When miners rally when gold and silver are falling, that’s generally a bullish sign also.

From looking at the tea leaves, it appears that silver has (probably) put in a low, with gold a bit less certain. The miners have been hinting about this outcome for a while – miners have rallied 3 days in a row. Miners tend to lead – and it appears they are leading higher.

All the risk assets I follow declined today, although not all that substantially.

Bonds went nowhere, while the buck maybe has put in a low. Maybe.

Scott Atlas, the White House coronavirus advisor who was widely mocked by “follow the science” MSM broadcasters for saying the US should re-open schools, resigned his position today. Fauci, after getting it wrong for 6 solid months causing untold harm to children and their parents nationwide, has finally just noticed that the data supports school reopening. Atlas was right – and he resigns. Fauci was shilling for Team Apocalypse for half a year, and he remains in place.

That’s gotta be good for gold, right?

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/30/fauci-flip-flops-on-in-person-learning-after-ignoring-data-on-low-covid-spread-in-schools/

Last note: in a triumph of “doing more of what has been proven not to work”, California is going back into lockdown.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-28/l-a-s-new-stay-at-home-order-is-the-strictest-in-california-but-is-it-enough-to-slow-covid-19-surge

Boy, if there were only treatments that worked…oh right. There are.

Just not in the US. Wash your hands, wear a mask, and – you know the rest.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 02:49am

    #2
    TamHob

    TamHob

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 13 2020

    Posts: 48

    count placeholder3

    thanks for the commentary

Hi Dave,

I’ve been reading your reports for a few months now and just wanted to say thanks for doing them – it’s given me the confidence to read further and then dip my toes into buying some PMs and related assets as a bit of a hedge against the unknown future.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 06:32am

    #3

    JAG

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 626

    count placeholder1

    Great report Boss. Bitcoin vs Gold

I’m really confused by this (h/t VT):

Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI · 13h

Ok, last bomb – I have a sell order in tomorrow to sell all my gold and to scale in to buy BTC and ETH (80/20). I dont own anything else (except some bond calls and some $’s). 98% of my liquid net worth. See, you can’t categorize me except #irresponsiblylong Good night all.

Now I would have never bought bitcoin if it wasn’t for Raoul’s pushing it over the last year on RealVision. BUT, the timing on his going ‘all in’ seems a bit amateurish.

Why would he sell gold near its probable low and buy BTC near it’s all time highs? I suspect it was drunken FOMO.

He might be right, though. I suspect when bitcoin breaks through resistance cleanly it’s probably clear sailing to $30+K.

I’m really in a quandary about this.

His motivation for this trade has to be fear. I guess it could just be marketing for his RealVision. He made a plea for bitcoin on YouTube right before this run started. It was a great pitch and I posted it here. He got a real ego (and business) pump from that so maybe he’s trying to do it again.

It just feels like the wrong timing to me, for what little I know.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 06:45am

    #4
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5600

    count placeholder4

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/30/2020

His motivation for this trade has to be fear. I guess it could just be marketing for his RealVision. He made a plea for bitcoin on YouTube right before this run started. It was a great pitch and I posted it here. He got a real ego (and business) pump from that so maybe he’s trying to do it again.

I had this explained to me yesterday – he’s possibly pulling a “Harry Dent.”

Make one big, bold call and if you get it right, you can market the hell out of it to drive business to your channel.

Which I get.

What I don’t get is someone with the obvious sophistication of Raoul going “all in” on a single bet.  It just doesn’t add up…

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 09:20am

    #5

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2296

    count placeholder1

    thanks

Thanks TH – I try to be as honest as possible as to where things are.  This used to annoy the heck out of some of the resident goldbugs (of which I am one) but its helpful to myself.  That way I don’t do stupid things.  Writing really helps me to make my own decisions.

Hey, looks like the tea leaves were right this time, at least for silver.  Gold did a bit better than I expected.  Yay for the “miner buy indicator”, it was a win, at least so far.  And my conspiracy theory for the bankster-assaults seems to have played out correctly too.

JAG- yeah.  I’m not the bitcoin expert (I don’t follow the ins and outs of the supply, demand, the very latest in industry acceptance, etc), and certainly my code doesn’t have too many examples to train on.  Gold code has 45 years and a bunch of things that correlate with it, while my bitcoin code has 7 years (I only train back to 2013-06, and almost nothing in the way of correlations.  So – its definitely a YMMV situation.

But the – lets just call it enthusiasm – of the recommendations from the promoters kinda smells like one of those out-of-whack sentiment indicators of yours.  My contrarian instincts (which are definitely not always correct) are flashing yellow right now.

Remember how excited we all were when silver hit $30 back in August?

Yeah.  We all remember.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 09:43am

    #6

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2296

    count placeholder0

    tuesday bitcoin

Code is unsure what comes next.  Mixed results across the different timeframes.  I feel the same way.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 09:53am

    #7

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2558

    count placeholder2

    Buying Pizza with BTC, ETH, etc.

ZH posts that Pizza Hut in Venezuela is now accepting several cryptocurrencies as payment for its food and drink.

Pizza Hut stores in the South American nation now accept crypto as a form of payment for food and drinks.

Using CryptoBuyer, customers can purchase pizza at the restaurant chain with Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Dash (DASH), Binance Coin (BNB), Binance USD (BUSD), Ether (ETH), Tether (USDT), Dai (DAI), and its native token XPT.

Based in Panama, Cryptobuyer is a cryptocurrency merchant gateway startup that also runs Bitcoin ATMs across Central and South America. The firm has already opened popular companies for crypto payments, including US-based fast food chains like Burger King, the Tamanaco Intercontinental Hotel in Caracas, and Traki, the largest chain of retail stores in the country.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 10:26am

    #8

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2296

    count placeholder1

    Biden Dogs Moving Into the White House

Brought to you by Normalized Narrative Control Central.

https://www.cnet.com/news/joe-biden-victory-means-two-first-dogs-major-and-champ-bounding-into-white-house/

President-elect Joe Biden and wife Jill aren’t the only ones who’ll move into the White House in 2021. There will again be pets at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue — the Bidens have two German Shepherds, Champ and Major. Jill Biden shared a photo of the pooches back in August.

Build Bark Better.

Happy #NationalDogDay. pic.twitter.com/64HXEBscwO

— Dr. Jill Biden (@DrBiden) August 26, 2020

Aww.  How cute is that.  Even a cute pun on the Great Reset too!  How bad can The Reset be if it involves a pair of cute dogs.  One of whom managed to break not-President-Elect Biden’s foot the other day.  Not sure if it was “Lockdown” or “Mandatory Vaccine” that caused the damage.

Oops, sorry, dogs were actually named “Champ” and “Major.”

But I like my names better.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 12:11pm

    #10

    JAG

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 626

    count placeholder1

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/30/2020

From Sentimentrader.com

The speculative fever is back, and not just in bitcoin. Both small and large players in the options market have been buying (to open) twice as many calls as puts recently. And they are paying through the nose for those call options.

Meanwhile, the price for puts (bets on lower stock prices ahead) has gone the way of airline travel during COVID. And the big boys (option traders that buy more than 50 contracts) are playing this game too.

Let’s party like it’s 1999! Nothing bad is ever going to happen again. Bitcoin-Biden will save us!

 

And then there is gold….

Nobody wants it. They just want bitcoin (rant on that below).

Put options and Gold look like Roy Jones Jr after two body shots from Mike Tyson on Saturday night; deflated and short of breath.

But like Tyson said to Jones in the post fight, “hey you took it….you took it!”. PMs have taken the best body shots from Mr. Market and are answering the bell for the next round.

What will the next round for the gold miners look like? This is what market history suggests:

That is a beautiful risk/reward ratio over the next few months. Life has no guarantees, you can only hope for a good risk/reward ratio.

The final piece of the gold miner pie concerns the market breadth in GDX. Specifically, during this recent pull back, less than 3% of the gold miner stocks were able to hold above their 50-day moving averages. When this happens during a larger uptrend (like now), this is what happens next:

Geezzz Louizzz. What a stunning set-up!

Executive Summary: Go short the markets, long the gold miners, and tell bitcoin to kiss your ass (for now, lol). Thank you to all who sold their gold to buy bitcoin.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 12:36pm   (Reply to #10)

    #11
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 1206

    count placeholder1

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/30/2020

You certainly have a very short term view of things

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 26 total)

Login or Register to post comments