PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/25/2015
Gold climbed -4.50 to 1070.40 on moderately heavy volume, while silver rose +0.01 to 14.15 on moderately heavy volume also. Gold rallied, then sold off, while silver more or less traded sideways.
While gold staged a modest failed rally today, the larger picture appears to be setting up for a rebound. The MACD momentum indicator is suggesting a rebound is near. Downside momentum has slowed significantly and a reversal could happen at any time now.
Silver is also quite close to an MACD crossover, which generally ends up with a move higher in silver relatively soon thereafter. Downside momentum in silver has slowed substantially too, and any close above 14.15 will mark a swing low.
Miners tried rallying today but failed, with GDX down -0.94% on light volume, and GDXJ down -0.05% on light volume as well. Even so, MACD has already crossed over for the miners. This usually is followed by a move higher – not always, but usually.
The buck staged a big rally which mostly failed, leaving the buck up +0.24 to 99.83, at one point hitting 100.23 before falling back. The dollar has now had two shots at 100 and two failures. It remains above the 9 EMA, but has now more or less moving sideways. The MACD has executed a bearish crossover, and the RSI is showing a definite bearish divergence. These two indicators are both saying the dollar will most probably correct in the near future. I've been saying this for a while now.
SPX had an uneventful day, dropping -0.27 to 2088.87. Volume was quite light. VIX fell -0.74 to 15.19; usually nothing much happens in US equities on the day after Thanksgiving, so why buy puts?
JNK was unchanged. It is quite near its previous low set in early October, it may have found support here, and is trying to mark a low.
Bond ETF TLT is slowing rising, up +0.23%, making a new high for this cycle. TLT is inching towards its 50 MA and 200 MA which are both about 0.75% higher than the current price. A moving average crossing would be a bullish sign for TLT.
The CRB had a second good day in a row, rising +0.23% and managing to close above the 9 EMA. CRB is quite close to a bullish MACD crossover.
WTIC rallied +0.55 [+1.29%] to 43.20, after sinking briefly below 42 intraday. MACD for WTIC has already executed its bullish crossover and crude appears to move slowly moving higher – the very early stages of a short term uptrend. We have an OPEC meeting coming up Dec 4th, and the Saudis have remarked that they're going to help "stabilize the oil market" – whatever that means.
We have a large number of momentum indicators suggesting trend changes might be near. These indicators aren't always correct, but they are useful for showing changes in momentum. Perhaps something interesting will happen next week. If we can get the buck to correct, that will probably push commodities back into an uptrend – at least for now anyways.
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