PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/20/2014
Gold rose +11.50 to 1194.00 on heavy volume, while silver rose +0.12 to 16.23 on moderate volume. Gold recovered most of its losses from yesterday, while silver continues to slowly improve. Both metals remain above their EMA-9, which means they remain in an uptrend.
The USD dropped -0.04 to 87.70, dropping just below its EMA-9. The dollar continues chopping sideways, giving us no clues as to which way it will head next. The only constant is the dropping yen, which fell -0.26% today.
Mining shares recovered somewhat from their losses of yesterday, with GDX up +2.71% on moderate volume, and GDXJ rose +4.55% on heavy volume. Right now I'm seeing a mix of good news and bad news in the mining shares. The good news is, both mining ETFs remain above their respective EMA-9 averages, which means the miners are still in an uptrend. The bad news is, the volume on today's rally is a whole lot lower than yesterday's drop, and the rebound is a lot less enthusiastic than the original drop. High volume sell-offs and low volume rebounds are typically bearish signals.
Still, the EMA-9 is acting as support, and as long as that is happening, even though the miners are flashing a warning, the uptrend remains in place.
SPX rose +4.03 to 2052.75. SPX remains above its EMA-9 as well, as it has done for the past five weeks. It The rally in SPX has been strong and steady off the 1820 lows. The VIX dropped -0.38 to 13.58.
TLT rose +0.52% – it seems like TLT is up one day, and down the next, resulting in a very narrow trading range for the past five weeks. The bias seems slightly bullish, but just slightly. JNK dropped a bit, off -0.05%.
The commodity index rose +0.57% and now seems to be forming a very shallow ascending triangle pattern, which is bullish. Ever so slowly, the commodity index is climbing off its lows. WTIC staged a massive rally today, rising +2.02 to 76.36 and closing above its EMA-9 for the first time in seven weeks. It appears that WTIC has marked a swing low, although it has done that before and failed to rally afterwards. Still – its a positive sign for commodities, the first one in a while. Brent rose +1.23 to 79.33, lagging behind WTIC.
If oil can form a low, that would be good for commodities in general, and for PM specifically. Let's see if oil can actually string together two up days in a row tomorrow…
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