PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/19/2020

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  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 12:28am

    #1

    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/19/2020

Gold fell -6.36 [-0.34%] to 1870.01 on moderate volume, and silver dropped -0.29 [-1.18%] to 24.20 on moderately heavy volume. The buck was mostly unchanged [-0.03%], SPX moved higher [+0.39%], crude climbed too [+0.22%],as did bonds [the 10-Year yield fell -5.0 bp].

Gold fell in Asia and London, with the day low (1850) happening at 8:30 am, after which gold bounced back through end of day. The spinning top candle was a possible bullish reversal (38%), but forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Gold is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Gold/euros was unchanged -2.38 [-0.15%] to 1578.43 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest rose +1.4K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 51% of global annual production, up +0.13% today. 91 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

There were mixed signals from the tea leaves today. There was no short-covering, but there did seem to be a reasonable amount of dip-buying at COMEX. The highly-rated candle print looked strong, but gold/Euros made a new 5-month low. Gold is right at support. The downtrend remains in place.

Silver followed gold, dropping in Asia and London, bottoming at 8:30 am (23.67), then rallying through end of day. The spinning top candle was a possible bullish reversal (39%), forecaster was unchanged and remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest rose +316 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 92% of global annual production, up +0.18% today. 116 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.66 to 77.27. That’s bearish.

Silver was hit harder than gold today; that said, the silver chart looks stronger overall. As with gold, there was no short covering, but there was definitely dip-buying at COMEX. As a result, the candle print was also highly rated, and might be a bullish reversal. We will need to see confirmation tomorrow to be sure.

Miners gapped down at the open, rallied in the first hour, then chopped sideways through end of day. GDX fell -0.84% on moderate volume, and GDXJ moved down -0.15% on moderate volume. XAU dropped -0.60%, the opening white marubozu candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.50%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio climbed +0.68%. That’s neutral.

No hints of a reversal yet for the mining shares. While there was definitely some dip-buying, it wasn’t enough to move the needle. Today marked a new 2-month low for the miners.

Platinum rose +8.80 [+0.92%], palladium rose +0.34 [+0.01%]. Something is definitely up with platinum; it continues to just scream higher – it is up more than $100 in the past 3 weeks, uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Palladium is just chopping sideways.

Copper climbed +0.02 [+0.63%] to 3.21 on moderate volume. The long white candle was unrated, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Copper just continues to look strong.

The buck was mostly unchanged, down -0.03 [-0.03%] to 92.24 on moderate volume. The long black candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. The buck is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Major currency moves included: GBP [-0.39%], AUD [-0.65%].

The buck tried to rally today but failed. It remains right at support. The medium-term downtrend remains reasonably strong.

Crude climbed +0.09 [+0.22%] to 41.90 on moderate volume. The bearish doji star candle was neutral, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Crude just chopped sideways today – not much happened. Uptrend remains in place.

SPX climbed +14.08 [+0.39%] to 3581.87 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. SPX is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Energy [+1.61%] led, along with tech [+0.80%], while utilities [-1.01%] and sickcare [-0.07%] did worst. This was a bullish sector map.

The VIX fell -0.73 to 23.11.

Most of today’s move came near end of day; the candle print was weak, forecaster wasn’t happy, but the sector map was surprisingly bullish. Still – no bullish reversal for SPX.

TLT climbed +0.51%. The high wave candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster fell, but remains in an uptrend. TLT is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield fell -4.0 bp to +1.58%.

TY climbed +0.20%. The white marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. TY is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-Year yield fell -5.0 bp to +0.83%.

Bonds continue to do well. We see from the Fed weekly report (below) that it printed $80 billion last week, buying Treasury bonds ($32B) and MBS ($50B). Perhaps that’s why.

JNK climbed +0.36%. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. JNK is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes.

Crappy debt remains in an uptrend.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -1.75 tons, with 1217 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -4.03%
* PHYS -1.80%
* PSLV -3.81%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.55%
* silver [100 oz]: +5.64%

Discounts at physical ETFs remain wide; at retail, big bar gold premiums are really starting to increase, while the big bar silver premiums remain relatively low.

Economic Reports

Fed Balance Sheet: 7243.1B, +67.7B (+0.93% w/w), Liquidity Swaps: 7.1B, -895M, Reverse Repos: 192.2B, -2.6B, Treasury Securities: 4584.4B, +31.7B, MBS: 2051.2B, +50.8B. This month was all abouut Treasury and MBS – a large amount of both.

Summary

Gold, silver, and the miners all moved lower today once more. There was no short-covering, but there was some dip-buying at COMEX in both metals. No clear bullish reversal, but both items had some decently strong candle prints. Gold is right at support. If the metals rally tomorrow – going into the weekend – that would probably be a reasonably strong reversal pattern.

Platinum is definitely giving off some very bullish signals. While the rest of PM has been moving lower, platinum has been rallying, up 6 of the last 6 days. It is usually good for the metals when platinum rallies.

Risk assets mostly rallied; equities, crappy debt, and copper all moved higher, while crude was flat.

Bonds continue to move higher; the Fed is back to printing large amounts of money. The balance sheet has climbed steadily since July.

It still appears as though the market is waiting for that shoe to drop; perhaps the noises from Trump’s legal team are affecting things. Sidney Powell says she has already “released the Kraken” – she claims that Dominion Voting Systems software was first developed in order to alter election results for Hugo Chavez. True or not? She apparently has an affidavit on point. News conference in the link below:

https://www.brighteon.com/d28c2b61-7e0b-4d9a-aed0-fed8eb2ff020

Canada’s federal elections are all done with hand-counted paper ballots. This low-tech solution is very difficult to compromise.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4049932/canada-2019-election-hacking/

It’s a low-tech 19th-century system that isn’t likely to change anytime soon, in part for 21st-century reasons. The more complex, and electronic, a voting system is, the more vulnerable it is to attack, and the simpler and more paper-based it is, the more secure it is.

That’s what officials in the Netherlands decided in February of last year when they abandoned electronic voting in favour of what interior minister Ronald Plasterk called “good old pen and paper.”

It is well understood that the current voting systems are easy to hack. Given this, and all the fuss about “Russian interference” over the past four years, the only reason to continue having an electronic voting system is to be able to hack it for your own purposes. I used to wonder, why isn’t one party or the other making waves about this?

Then Trump came along, and everything became clear. The parties are simply a fiction. The current, deliberately hackable system is in place in order to assure that the properly corrupt, pliable candidate, from either side of the aisle, will usually be the one to win. The “Corporate America/Globalist/Eternal War/Defense Industrial” candidate, if you will. They will differ on the cosmetic “transgender bathroom/prayer in schools” issues, but not on stuff that really counts, such as sickcare at 20% of GDP, eternal war in Syria or Afghanistan, exporting jobs to China, and now – the Great Reset.

Deliberately hackable voting machines: Corporate America’s Best Friend. Will this come out? Wouldn’t that be something if it did?

We might consider “The Canada Solution” for our next election. Chris has been suggesting this very thing since, oh, 2006.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 01:50am

    #2
    phusg

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/19/2020

What, wait a minute, so when I read “Biden wins Georgia recount”, they’re not talking about actual recounting of paper ballots?! These much talked about postal votes are paper though no? What percentage of American votes are electronic?

You were losing me there for a minute Dave with all this election fraud theorizing, but this angle is quite persuasive:

The parties are simply a fiction. The current, deliberately hackable system is in place in order to assure that the properly corrupt, pliable candidate, from either side of the aisle, will usually be the one to win. The “Corporate America/Globalist/Eternal War/Defense Industrial” candidate, if you will. They will differ on the cosmetic “transgender bathroom/prayer in schools” issues, but not on stuff that really counts, such as sickcare at 20% of GDP, eternal war in Syria or Afghanistan, exporting jobs to China, and now – the Great Reset.

My only comeback would be that maybe the majority of voters are quite happy with the “Corporate America/Globalist/Eternal War/Defense Industrial” candidate, at least in the short (4 year) term. So less establishment conspiracy and more popular shortsightedness.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 01:50am

    #3

    davefairtex

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    bitcoin update

And in the latest – has bitcoin hit the top yet – update from my paint-still-drying code, which I continue to work on.  Here’s the 5-day forecast.  Looks like the code is projecting a new high now.  That’s true across most of the rest of the timeframes also.

Possibly: today’s candle print didn’t confirm yesterday’s bearish-looking event.

There aren’t many “long term tops” for the code to train on – the model is only as good as its history.  Which there isn’t much of.  Caveat emptor, YMMV, etc.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 02:24am

    #4

    davefairtex

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    recount fraud & hackery

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/12/judge-rules-fourth-time-switching-paper-ballots-georgia/

And this one too:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/georgia-recount-witnesses-saw-trump-votes-counted-for-biden-batches-of-suspicious-mail-ballots_3585027.html

I really don’t think this is just a Trump thing.  I mean – the printed Biden votes probably are, but that’s because they were desperate.  Mail-in voting was always seen as horribly fraudulent by everyone, right up until the machine became desperate to remove Trump from power.

So its a combination of voting-machine hackery, and it looks like “recount fraud”, and submissions of large blocks of mail-in ballots, uncreased, perfectly filled out, all for one guy.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 04:04am

    #5

    davefairtex

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    giuliani press conference

I just finished watching it.  Rudy was incredibly compelling.  Trump won this election.  Rudy has – he says – a thousand affidavits on the improper retroactively pre-dating absentee ballots that arrived late, improper (double, sometimes triple) counting of existing ballots, “over-voting” (i.e. more voters voting than there were voters registered in the district – in one case by 300%), ballot drops by the truckload that arrived early in the AM.

He points out that a large number of Americans have sworn out affidavits under penalty of perjury on this matter – Joe Biden himself has yet to actually answer questions on this matter, or really anything else, much less swear to anything.

He’s also alleging a grand conspiracy.  In 8 different cities, the same plan was executed:  Republican inspectors were put in pens, they were not allowed to look at mail-in or absentee ballots: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Las Vegas, Phoenix.  He’s alleging this was directed from the Biden campaign itself.

Biden did say: “We have put together the most extensive…and inclusive…voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.”  I’m not kidding.  He said this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0

Here’s the press conference.  I’m using brighteon because I’m worried youtube will remove it.  Play it in the background while you do the laundry.

https://www.brighteon.com/0c6eafec-69dd-44af-a1f8-2e69a3beb6e3

The “Smartmatic” voting machine technology has been used in a number of banana republics (of which, clearly, we have become) to assure the election of someone that a specific three-letter-agency wanted to get into power.

Allegedly.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 04:13am   (Reply to #5)

    #6
    RandomMike

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/19/2020

I’ve been a conspiracy fan for a while but I find this grand scheme too grandiose, it approaches paranoia IMHO. But, I’ll give you this…for Giuliani, it was a press conference to dye for.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 04:26am

    #7

    davefairtex

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    if not for the affidavits … and COVID … and Reset …

Yeah, I think it is an improbable event.  But I have to ask: did you actually watch the whole thing, like I did?  Did you review the evidence they presented in their “opening statement”?  Or did you just watch the 1-minute highlight blip provided helpfully by someone else?

Right.  So if not for all the sworn affidavits.  And the similar changes in vote counting patterns in all those places that took place at more or less the same time.

And if I hadn’t seen the US national medical establishment pretend there are no COVID treatments for 9 straight months – giving us only “hand washing” and “cloth-mask-wearing” and “lockdowns” when the evidence of successful treatment is so clear.  From the third world, no less.

If I hadn’t seen this COVID conspiracy, played out in front of me for the last 9 months, with hundreds of thousands dead, I’d have written off this fraudulent voting scheme as unlikely.

Think COVID.  All the Western democracies – no treatments.  And really, I mean none at all.  Not in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, the UK, or the US.  No treatments!  What are the odds?  Just by luck someone should have stumbled on something.  But no.

Add to that – some mysterious group of billionaires that – for some reason – want us all to own nothing.  And be happy about it.  Crazy stuff.  Great Reset.  The stuff of fiction.  Right around the time when oil is peaking.  And Biden has apparently signed on.  “Build back better.”

Except that too is real.

And now a grand election fraud, where the identical events happen simultaneously in only-Democrat-run cities, in the swing states.  Just enough to give Biden (Mr Build Back Better) the victory.  Right at the last minute, after everything is shut down.

Trump rallies had tens of thousands of people, five times a day, while Biden was lucky to get a few hundred.

But Biden wins.

“Are you going to believe my trustworthy computer, or your lying eyes?”

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 05:12am

    #8

    JAG

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    Bitcoin Update

Thanks for the bitcoin update. If I have any cajones I will sell the rest of my bitcoin at 19K. There looked to be lots of selling at 18K but we may be past most of it. Fear vs Greed is back down to 86.

It is fun to watch it go up though, even if I’m only half-assing it, lol.

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 06:01am   (Reply to #5)

    #9

    lambertad

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    Radommike

The floor is yours. Present the evidence or refute Dave’s evidence. What about his statements is factually incorrect?

  • Fri, Nov 20, 2020 - 06:55am

    #10
    tbp

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/19/2020

Trump rallies had tens of thousands of people, five times a day, while Biden was lucky to get a few hundred.

By the last months he was lucky to get 10, yes TEN, people, likely all paid. These people are biggest scammers America has ever seen.

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