PM Daily Market Commentary – 11/17/2020
Gold fell -8.66 [-0.46%] to 1884.99 on moderately light volume, and silver dropped -0.31 [-1.24%] to 24.66 on moderately light volume. The buck moved lower [-0.25%], SPX fell too [-0.48%], crude was mostly unchanged [-0.14%], while bonds rallied [the 10-Year yield fell -5.0 bp].
Gold chopped sideways in a narrow trading range for most of the day, selling off a bit in the afternoon in New York. The nr7 candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, falling into a state of no-trend. Gold is in an uptrend in the monthly timeframe.
Gold/euros fell -10.07 [-0.63%] to 1588.97 on moderately light volume. The nr7 candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, falling into a downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.
COMEX GC open interest rose +3.2K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 52% of global annual production, up +0.30% today. 59 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.
I’m not sure why gold took a dump at end of day, but it does appear to under pressure right now. Shorts are increasing. Even a moderately large drop in the buck wasn’t enough to rescue gold today. Gold/Euros is sitting just above the 200 MA. Gold isn’t bearish per se, but it does look weak.
Silver moved slowly lower for most of the day. The opening black marubozu candle was unrated, forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.
COMEX SI open interest fell -16 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 93% of global annual production, down -0.01% today. 159 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.
The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.60 to 76.44. That’s bearish.
The tea leaves suggest silver is now in a moderate short term downtrend. Looking at the chart, it doesn’t look all that terrible, but silver did end the day below both the 9 and 50 MA lines. Forecaster is projecting bad news ahead.
Miners gapped down at the open, tried to rally in the first 20 minutes, but then sold off for most of the rest of the day, ending at the lows. GDX fell -2.17% on moderate volume, and GDXJ dropped -2.12% on moderate volume. XAU fell -1.51%, the short black candle was a possible bullish reversal (34%), forecaster fell, moving deeper into its downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.
The GDX:gold ratio dropped -1.75%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio climbed +0.05%. That’s bearish.
The miners continue to move slowly downhill – the tea leaves are suggesting the medium-term downtrend is now fairly bearish. The miners are also well below both the 9 and 50 MA lines.
Platinum rose +1.74 [+0.19%], and palladium fell -10.96 [-0.47%]. Platinum: uptrend, palladium: slight downtrend.
Copper dropped -0.01 [-0.31%] to 3.21 on moderately heavy volume. The dark cloud cover candle was a possible bearish reversal (36%), but forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.
The candle print wasn’t too seriously bearish, and forecasters all continue to point higher. Copper remains in its uptrend.
The buck fell -0.23 [-0.25%] to 92.36 on moderately light volume. The spinning top candle was a possible bullish reversal (39%), forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. The buck is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.
Major currency moves included: GBP [+0.34%], JPY [+0.32%].
The buck continues moving lower. While it has yet to break below support, it is not far from doing so. The candle print was reasonably highly rated. It might bounce again.
Crude fell -0.06 [-0.14%] to 41.61 on moderate volume. The doji candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.
Crude sold off during the London session, but then bounced back, recovering most of its losses by end of day. It looks like traders bought the dip today in crude.
SPX dropped -17.38 [-0.48%] to 3609.53 on moderate volume. The long legged doji candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. SPX is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.
Utilities [-2.00%] led the market lower, along with staples [-0.71%], while energy [+1.01%] and REITs [+0.05%] did best. This was a bullish [-5] sector map.
The VIX rallied +0.26 to 22.71.
All of the losses occurred in the futures markets overnight, but it wasn’t a very large move down. SPX remains in an uptrend.
TLT climbed +0.65%. The gap up doji candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. TLT is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield fell -5.0 bp to +1.61%.
TY climbed +0.23%. The confirmed bullish high wave candle was a probable bullish reversal (59%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. TY is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-Year yield fell -5.0 bp to +0.86%.
Bonds continue to rally. Hmmm.
JNK inched up +0.09%. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. JNK is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes.
Crappy debt remains in an uptrend. That’s risk on.
The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -8.02 tons, with 1226 tons remaining in inventory.
ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -3.33%
* PHYS -1.06%
* PSLV -3.85%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.34%
* silver [100 oz]: +5.26%
Physical ETF premiums remain wide; retail gold premiums are moderate, while the retail silver premiums remain weak.
Retail Sales: headline +0.29% m/m, retail sales (ex-autos): +0.21% m/m. The stimulus-fueled retail sales boost appears to be at an end.
Industrial Production: headline +1.07% m/m, manufacturing: +1.03% m/m. INDPRO was down maybe 20% peak to trough;
recovery has slowed significantly, but it does continue to improve.
Gold, silver, and the miners all fell today; all items are now in medium-term downtrends, with the miners looking the weakest. Premiums at retail suggest there is little goldbug demand. There is no current pattern of short-covering. Given the drop in the buck today which should have helped – but didn’t – the PM group is looking pretty weak right now.
Risk assets were mixed; SPX moved lower, crude and copper were relatively unchanged, and crappy debt inched higher. Really, not much happened in the risk asset space.
Bonds actually had a reasonably good day. They continue to move slowly higher after bottoming out last week.
Retail sales numbers shows that the stimulus-fueled spending momentum is probably now at an end, while industrial production continues to slowly improve, but remains well short of pre-pandemic levels.
The market appears to be waiting for the next shoe to drop. What might it be?
Near term, it would seem to be about the resolution of the flock of legal challenges to the election corruption in the swing states.
There is a great deal of uncertainty ahead. We are in a Dark Winter, with COVID19 hospitalizations in the US now at record levels, but only because our national medical leadership has abandoned the country to its fate, providing only the 1918-era “hand-washing” policy after 8 long months, sucking up an absurdly high $47 billion annual budget to do it. I place every 9 out of 10 daily deaths at their feet. Early treatment is the key, but they refuse to acknowledge the science.
Member Tycer posted the latest treatment protocol document, which originally came from Eastern Virginia Medical School. I will re-post it here. This professor should be in charge at NIH. Give him the $47 billion per year this organization receives. 9 out of 10 lives could be saved, hospitalizations avoided, and so on. If you find it tl;dr, skim to page 17 for the good stuff.
As Chris says constantly – it doesn’t have to be this way.
From Coindesk.com comes a discouraging finding of the new Mac OS Big Sur. It is a privacy nightmare for its users collecting user actions and reporting them (over unencrypted networks) to Apple’s main servers.
I suspect that this will impact cryptocurrency users as all actions, online and off line, are now available to the oligarchy.
New Mac Update Leaves Users No Room to Escape Data Collection
Nov 17, 2020 at 8:00 a.m. EST
Apple’s most recent update, Big Sur, makes a feature that logs device activity for offline (and online) applications practically impossible for privacy solutions to bypass.
The monitoring is yet another example of Apple’s privacy-compromising design choices, despite the company’s efforts to present itself as a privacy ally.
VPNs and other firewalls cannot circumvent the feature.
Security researchers suggest that users who care about their digital privacy explore other, open-source alternatives.
On Nov. 12, Mac users complained their computers were acting sluggish. This sluggishness coincided with the release of Big Sur, the latest Mac update from Apple.
After the update was released, a technical error disrupted the servers Apple uses for OCSP requests, the packets of data that verify a computer’s SSL certificate when it accesses online applications. Apple devices were shutting down because these OCSP requests weren’t reaching Apple servers
As some users looked closer, it became very clear why the devices failed when the OCSP servers were failing: Every time a user opens an application (even an offline one), that action is being tagged and traced by Apple’s OCSP servers.
This feature was introduced in Apple’s Catalina update, but certain tools (like Little Snitch) could be used to bypass it. Now, with Big Sur, there’s no practical way for average Mac users to thwart the feature.
Apple has touted itself as pushing privacy as the core of its mission, perhaps most publicly by rebuffing law enforcement demands to unlock one of the San Bernardino, Calif., shooter’s iPhones after the December 2015 attack.
But these new revelations demonstrate some of the inherent flaws in centralized data collection – you have to trust Apple not to share this information (or trust them to not be coerced into revealing it to a government agency). In this case, though, Apple’s siloing of data through Big Sur may not even be the primary issue because these OCSP requests are transmitted unencrypted, meaning the contents can be read by any surveilling party that intercepts them.
Damn it. I just updated to Big Sur-veillance . I thought I was updating to get those new Finder windows with rounded corners (lol) and I got Big Brother instead.
This sucks (I didn’t mean that Apple). No seriously, this sucks.
I don’t like you anymore SP.
Guys, this spin on MacOS is mostly FUD. It makes it sound like OCSP is something nefarious. It’s not a bad thing for most users that don’t understand security and are careless with installing software from the internet on their computers.
Meanwhile, Apple has already communicated that a fix is in the works, bringing encryption and the ability to opt out :
Thanks Sandpuppy. I need to do a bit more research, but this pokes a big hole in the illusion that Apple is better than Microsoft for privacy. May be time to take Linux from a curiosity to a daily driver.
Dave, or any other privacy and security minded people, what do you recommend? Thoughts?
edit: Thanks dreinmund too. Good to have some cold water thrown on my otherwise chicken-little reaction.
Still wouldn’t mind any thoughts or testimonials about how y’all approach security. 🙂
I decided to share the COVID paper at work since my company has some efforts supporting the USG in relation to COVID. Not much response yet, but the first one:
This site smells a bit funny… and paper is not peer reviewed. My $0.02:
©2020 FLCCC NOTICE: The information contained or presented on this website is for educational purposes only. Information on this site is NOT intended to serve as a substitute for diagnosis, treatment, or advice from a qualified, licensed medical professional. The facts presented are offered as information only in order to empower you – our protocol is not medical advice – and in no way should anyone infer that we, even though we are physicians, or anyone appearing in any content on this website are practicing medicine, it is for educational purposes only. Any treatment protocol you undertake should be discussed with your physician or other licensed medical professional. Seek the advice of a medical professional for proper application of ANY material on this site or our program to your specific situation. NEVER stop or change your medications without consulting your physician. If you are having an emergency contact your emergency services: in the USA that’s 911.
This time it’s different.
Will there won’t there be a major price correction for BTC and thus all crypto?
I would bet Chart Meister Dave is the bear in the story. Inquiring minds want to know what Dave’s secret sauce charts reveal for BTC.
Hodlers are just waiting for the pot of gold at the end of the “Rainbow Chart” . Only question is , ” how much digital gold will be in the pot?”
There is a dip coming (maybe it already happened) so maybe time to break out the powder.
Another response to the COVID paper:
Based on their twitter account and the size of this coalition, my final opinion is: “snake oil”
[I guess it is easy to throw rocks and almost pretend that it does not exist since it did not come from a big publication. Clearly the respondent is not qualified for a peer review, but a twitter review is just as good!]
This is where it originally came from.
I’ve read dozens of studies. This is not snake oil. There is evidence behind each thing they advocate. The studies aren’t hard to read. It just takes diligence. You too can do this. So can your friends. Most people won’t take the time.
I’m guessing from your response that the people you spoke with haven’t actually taken the time, and they aren’t familiar with the evidence.
Chris has read the papers. So have I. This really isn’t that complicated.
Here’s a sampling of the papers supporting just the vitamin-D section – cross-posted from another forum. I have more than these. Note: this evidence was apparently strong enough for the UK to ship vitamin-D to all their vulnerable population. There is evidence just like this for every treatment recommendation.
A high dose of Calcifediol significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19; 2% admit to ICU (treatment group), vs 50% admit to ICU (control group).
Bolus vitamin D3 supplementation during or just before COVID-19 was associated with better survival rate in frail elderly. (82% treatment, 44% control)
Population study from Israel; “We observe a highly significant correlation between prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 incidence.”