PM Daily Market Commentary – 10/17/2016
Gold rose +4.30 to 1256.40 on light volume, and silver rose +0.05 to 17.48 on light volume also. The dollar made a new high in Asia, but then sold off for the rest of the day; this seemed to help gold and silver, at least to some degree. In truth, not much happened today.
On the chart, gold printed a bullish harami – 21-30% chance of a low, which doesn’t sound very exciting. Overall, gold appears to be forming a bearish pennant, which is a continuation pattern. That means the next move is likely down. Gold needs a close above its downtrend line and/or a close above that 200 MA to avoid this fate.
December rate-rise projection is at 64%.
Gold open interest at COMEX fell -6,652 contracts.
Silver printed a lame-looking spinning top candle which gives us no information about direction. Silver’s two-week pattern looks a lot like gold’s bearish pennant; unless we see a close above the downtrend line, silver will probably break down.
The miners managed to rally today, with GDX up +1.52% on light volume, and GDXJ up +1.65% on moderately heavy volume. However the gains were not enough to move the miners back above either the 9 EMA or the 200 MA. Like everything else in PM, miners remain in a downtrend.
Platinum fell -0.35%, palladium dropped -1.62%, and copper edged down -0.17%.
USD made a new high today in Asia, and then sold off for the rest of the day, closing down -0.12 to 97.88. Today’s price move does not appear to be a top in the buck, at least not yet anyways.
Crude fell -0.19 to 50.17; the trading range was large, but crude ended up moving very little. Candle print was a high wave, which didn’t end up telling us anything about what happens next.
SPX fell -6.48 to 2126.50. On the chart, SPX edged lower after last Friday’s spinning top – which actually ended up printing a low-grade two candle swing high (23-32%). Utilities did best (XLU:+0.54%), and cyclicals dropped most (XLY:-0.82%). Market still looks like it is headed lower; SPX is below both 9 EMA and 50 MA. VIX rose +0.09 to 16.21.
TLT rallied +0.64%, which sounds nice but was only enough to drag TLT back above its 200 MA. TLT remains in a downtrend.
JNK was largely unchanged, dropping -0.03% and coming to rest right at its 9 EMA. JNK is just a percent or two away from its all time high.
CRB fell -0.04%; it is also in an uptrend, and today’s move didn’t change this.
PM remains in its downtrend; the pennant patterns look bearish, as they generally tend to continue in the direction of their “flagpoles” (which in this case, is down). Really not much happened today.
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My guess is, the good news will pour in from the various miners who will now sue DB for damages based on their losses over the 17 years the fraud has been in operation.
Note this is “intraday” manipulation, which resulted in DB skimming money from their customers by hammering the price within 15 minutes of the fix so their customers got a worse price for their silver than they otherwise would have received.
However, this is not “trend manipulation” – i.e. this is not a smoking gun that proves the banks were setting price to whatever they wanted it to be over the long haul.