PM Daily Market Commentary – 10/1/2015
I'm with you. No information there. They just follow the recent trend.
When I studied economics as an undergrad, I was completely turned off. I think some part of me knew that stuff was just made up crap. Now that I have real data to work with, and I'm free to discover what things actually matter, I find it fascinating…too fascinating, truth be known…
Easy there, guys. You want me to survive the weekend, don't you?
I was asked to start teaching economics this school year, and while it was my undergraduate major, I have always taught other things. In my program, the students have to take an externally graded test after finishing the two year course. The course content and exam is Neoclassical Synthesis (+ a little Monetarism) straight up.
So, I went from teaching an international politics course designed for the students at our school, with a two month limits-to-growth curriculum built in, drawing on the Crash Course at a few different points, to an externally imposed curriculum of mainstream economic theory that does not adequately account for the economic effects of money, debt, energy, irrational behavior and instability with a high-stakes exam at the end, meaning that I deviate from the syllabus at the risk of my professional record and the students' peril, in terms of exam results, anyway, which is something that they care about a lot.
So, my efforts to make my courses more relevant and applied to the big shifts we face have seen a setback, and most of my colleagues and bosses are congratulating me on my promotion. Ah, the short-term rewards of being a specialized worker bee.
Needless to say no credit is given in this orthodox econ. syllabus to the economics of the Austrians, Neo-Keynesians, or ecological/thermodynamic/biophysical economists.
And traders? Er, sorry, Dave, but if we were to let the likes of you into the ivory tower, it would be actors and courtesans next. (Actually, one of your chart has already made it onto the whiteboard, during our short real-world economics discussions at the beginning and end of class.)
Nonetheless, Keen, Tverberg, and most certainly Martenson have found their way off of the Forbidden Shelf once or twice already. Alaklett, Tainter, Roubini, James Hamilton, Reinhart & Rogoff, Mauldin (who is still insightful in many ways, in spite of his energy cornucopianism), and Falk may have their day in the sun as well. We'll learn the required stuff so that they can ace the test and still find some time to learn about economics that does a bit better in terms of describing the world as it actually is.
Dave, please also run Palladium once every couple weeks. As I had said before, its behavior right now seems very interesting right now.
To be more specific, if my interpretation of Elliott analysis holds right now, I think we’re looking at a sharp sustained rise up to 40 % over its previous drop from 900->600, or in the middne thousand range (1050). That’s if the actual bottom, 500, was overshoot induced by manipulators.
My apologies if there is some confusion between this post and last post two above, there is definitely a range in this, and it’s hard for me to judge. One judgement is the conservative judgement, the other is the more liberal judgement. I don’t find Elliott to be so useful at picking endpoints, just at picking large trendse
In any case, I’ll probably get out about that time, to wait for the peak and the first correction, because I expect a pennant pattern after that.