PM Daily Market Commentary – 09/18/2020
For you Armstrong and Hunter fans:
I don’t know what you guys see in this dude, but to each his own.
Have you seen “The Forecaster”? It’s the entire story around Armstrong. Seems beyond belief, but it’s there to watch. That’s one reason I tend to believe the guy. He had this figured out before and the Feds went through extraordinary lengths to get his program, but he wouldn’t budge. Like everything else, no one is right all the time, but interesting none the less. As for Hunter, he doesn’t seem that intelligent but some how gets decent people on his program.
As for Hunter, he doesn’t seem that intelligent but some how gets decent people on his program.
I’ve been listening to Adam’s weekly market updates with NH and a different guest every week. Adam has really grown in his role and does an outstanding job of asking good questions, letting his guest talk WITHOUT interrupting them, and asking great follow-up questions. I don’t understand why there isn’t more discussion following the interviews from peak prosperity members. And I really don’t understand how Hunter gets the guests he gets.
I hadn’t heard of it. I’m downloading the doc via a torrent right now.
I used to read his hand written stuff from prison way back in 09 I think. If you look at his archives, you will see how wrong he was with everything he was writing back then. I liked his cycle theories but unfortunately reality proved them wrong too.
Sorry to come off as an asshole, poo poo-ing everybody. I just have a limited attention span for this stuff and I have to prioritize my sources of information.
I really do think I will enjoy that documentary, however, so many thanks.
Well, Armstrong has been right about currency, when a crap-ton of really smart goldbugs have been wrong. Spectacularly wrong.
How many goldbugs expected the buck to turn into confetti (using these exact words) over the past 20 years? That would be – most of them.
By reading Armstrong, I was able to keep my mind clear. He has a good handle on currencies, and on the movements of international markets, and the importance of capital flows.
Also – how many really smart people thought the US equity market was going to crash any moment now over the past 8 years? Most of them?
Did that happen? Armstrong said it wouldn’t. He was right.
Again. When people are right, I tend to notice. Especially when a lot of really smart people I respect end up being wrong – about those exact same issues.
Not everyone is right all the time, but he’s right often enough to have my attention.
I “grew up” in a meritocracy. If the person’s code worked, it didn’t matter how wacky they were or what they looked like. “Yeah, but the code works.” That’s all that mattered.
Just watched the documentary. I enjoyed it, thanks.
I do have to say that only an egomaniac would value his work so much that he would give up the one thing we can’t buy; time.
His code is worthless and he gave up 11 years of his life for it. Unbelievable.
Just think about it, if his code really worked to make accurate predictions then he would be the most powerful man on the planet OR he would have been killed for it long ago.
Though what happened to him is a nightmare, his prison sentence was self-inflicted by believing his thoughts were more valuable than life. It is a classic ego trap.
Sorry DF I know you love the guy but I have to call it as I see it.
See for yourself: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/
There’s a case for a bit of bitcoin that I’m partial to myself. Dave’s called it a hedge against capital controls. But nhuville when I see you write:
Except established history of course, but that is easy to overcome
That just sounds very naive, and is what I sounded like when I was half my age. Human culture may seem to be in massive flux, but human nature hasn’t changed much for millions of years.
when it is more durable, divisible, portable, recognizable, and most importantly SCARCE.
As Dave has pointed out gold wins on the durability property. Recognizablility is another one, there are a lot of people whose eyes will light up if you place some real gold in their palm that wouldn’t take your bitcoin.
By all means hold some virtual gold too, but don’t dimiss the real stuff. If anything does happen to poster child bitcoin, where do you think all that crypto money will go? And of course go for the security of a property and land first if you don’t have those.
phusg, I think I phrased it wrong. What I meant was- it WILL be overcome. It’s not like being around for 5000 years is 500x better than being around for 10. Once bitcoin has been established for ~20 years there will be virtually no difference between it and gold with regards to confidence in it’s staying power.
Also I don’t dismiss real gold. Sometimes I do in conversation when I feel like Bitcoin is being totally underrated so I need to compensate. I think Gold isn’t going anywhere but that Bitcoin will overtake it as the #1 hard asset SOV in the world.
The great thing about Bitcoin’s existence is that our debate is meaningless. It is a real market test now! Place your bets fellas. I’m a little sad you don’t see my point of view yet, but you will. It’s not a matter of theoretical debate, it will just happen in real life.
You can talk all your “gold is more recognizable, durable, blablabla” until you’re blue in the face, but we will have facts on the ground soon. And within the next 10 years the market will side with me. I’m happy to bet on this vs you btw. I will walk the walk.
Hey nhuvelle –
Instead of holding quantum-vulnerable bitcoin, perhaps you could consider buying some of this quantum-proof bitcoin I happen to have lying around. I’m a miner of this coin. It is basically the same as bitcoin, except it can’t be stolen by a quantum computer, because it is protected by a quantum-proof crypto algorithm called Rainbow, which has currently passed 2 rounds of NIST qualification and is in the final round right now, with 2 other candidates. [Buy now, before Rainbow passes round #3!]
Once quantum computers appear, the current bitcoin will be toast. Between now and then, current bitcoin miners won’t want to change algorithms since it would require tossing out their existing mining hardware. Which won’t happen. Again – I’m a miner. I know.
Happy to sell you some quantum-proof bitcoin. As I mentioned, I have a fairly large supply of them. I optimized the mining code myself. I don’t pretend to understand Rainbow (I’m not a math guy) but I am good at making code go fast.
Anyhow, buy quantum-proof bitcoin now, before your quantum-vulnerable bitcoin all vanishes into the quantum smoke! 🙂
[In reality – when quantum computers do finally appear, bitcoin really will be hosed. Would this quantum-proof coin work? Well, NIST – the NSA – thinks Rainbow is reasonably strong, at least strong enough to make it to round #3. I’m not enough of a math/crypto guy to really know if it will pass or not. If it does, coin probably increases in value. If it doesn’t – maybe nobody cares about the coin anymore.]