PM Daily Market Commentary – 08/13/2020

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   8 posts
  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 02:19am

    #1

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder4+

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 08/13/2020

Gold rallied +37.12 [+1.93%] to 1964.84 on moderate volume, and silver screamed higher, up +2.00 [+7.76%] to 27.77 on very heavy volume. The buck moved lower [-0.10%], SPX dropped too [-0.20%] as did crude [-0.49%], and so did bonds [the 10-Year yield rose +2.0 bp].

Gold rallied early in Asia, and then continued chopping higher for most of the day. The swing low candle was a reasonably strong bullish reversal (49%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold is still in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Gold/euros rallied +27.85 [+1.70%] to 1662.73 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest fell -5.6K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 50% of global annual production, down -0.52% today. 31 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

Today’s candle print was a reasonably strong swing low; forecaster liked it too, but is not entirely convinced. There was some short-covering, but still not all that much. Most likely, this is a bullish reversal.

Silver rallied all day long, with most of the gains happening after 7am. The swing low2 candle was a likely bullish reversal (65%), forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. Silver is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest fell -624 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 113% of global annual production, down -0.36% today. 3 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio dropped -4.05 to 70.75. That’s very bullish.

There was no short-covering, but the rally in silver was very strong anyway. The candle print was very highly rated, and forecaster jumped back into an uptrend. Bullish reversal for silver, in case you didn’t know already.

Miners gapped up at the open, rallied in the first hour, faded a bit in the afternoon, but then rallied into the close. GDX jumped +3.57% on moderate volume, and GDXJ shot higher, up +4.46% on moderate volume. XAU rallied +3.44%, the confirmed bullish nr7 candle was neutral, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio climbed +1.59%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio climbed +0.85%. That’s bullish.

Some improvement for the mining shares, but no bullish reversal just yet.

Platinum climbed +31.49 [+3.21%], and palladium rose +45.80 [+2.05%]. Both are back in uptrends.

Copper plunged -0.09 [-3.12%] to 2.79 on heavy volume. The confirmed bearish spinning top candle was a reasonably strong bearish reversal (44%), forecaster fell, moving into a downtrend. Copper is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Hmm, that’s a new multi-month low for copper. Perhaps it really is reversing. Copper did manage to close above the 50 MA, but this is the second large decline in 5 trading days.

The buck inched down -0.09 [-0.10%] to 93.33 on moderate volume. The dragonfly doji was a possible bullish reversal (39%), and forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. The buck is still in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes.

There were no major currency moves today.

This could definitely be a bullish reversal for the buck – although its also more of a continuation of the double bottom pattern, which has yet to resolve one way or the other.

Crude fell -0.21 [-0.49%] to 42.57 on moderate volume. The short black/NR7 candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

Crude remains near the top of its recent trading range, but near-term trends are weak. We should go with the longer term trend, which remains positive.

SPX moved down -6.92 [-0.20%] to 3373.43 on moderately light volume. The doji candle was unrated, forecaster fell, but remains in an uptrend. SPX is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Energy [-1.98%] led the market lower, along with REITs [-1.17%], while communication services [+0.50%] and tech [+0.04%] did best. This was a bullish sector map.

The VIX climbed -0.15 to 22.13.

Doji usually means indecision, and that’s what we saw today. Uptrend remains intact.

TLT fell -1.07%. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. TLT is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield rose +4.0 bp to +1.41%.

TY dropped -0.16%. The spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in both the daily and monthly timeframes. The 10-Year yield rose +2.0 bp to +0.71%.

Bonds continue to plunge, below the 50 MA in both TLT and TY. Something is up. Fed bought its usual 16 billion in Treasury bonds, but it didn’t seem to matter this week.

JNK dropped -0.47%. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. JNK is in a downtrend in the daily timeframe.

Crappy debt appears to be heading lower. I believe this to be a coal mine canary. This was a new 3-week low. Unlike with equities, there is no indecision here.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand climbed +1.46 tons, with 1252 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -2.92%
* PHYS -1.70%
* PSLV -4.64%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.11%
* silver [100 oz]: +12.11%

While physical ETFs remain in heavy discount, shortages remain in physical PM – even after a $2 rally in silver, premiums remain above 12%.

Summary

PM continued its rebound today; silver is back in an uptrend, gold is trying hard, and the miners are lagging a bit. Still no real short-covering, but those premiums on physical remain in place. This should – eventually – translate into more deliveries at COMEX.

The treasury bond sell-off is continuing, and now it seems to have spread to crappy debt too. I’m not sure what is causing this, but it is a break from the past two months.

While equities remain near all time highs, today’s sell-off in copper is not a good sign. Likewise, the crappy debt reversal is also more-than-hinting at risk off for equities.

One issue I heard about; Treasury’s forgivable loans to small business program ended August 1. Now everyone in the service industry will have to face current economic reality. “Any restaurants not at 80% capacity in the coming weeks will probably have to shut their doors.” And of course many states remain shut down – even those that apparently have herd immunity. Defaults will start to happen, with more of them in those states.

The chains will be ok, at least for now. They can borrow in the bond market. And they’ll pick up market share from mom & pop once everyone figures out about the herd immunity thing – most likely, once the election is over.

Perhaps the crappy debt ETF is sniffing out that we are at peak post-pandemic money printing highs right now.

I have never seen a more effective mechanism for strangling small business, and transferring the wealth from regular people to corporate America, than a lockdown. And at this point it is pretty clear that lockdowns don’t even work.  Who is arranging this behind the scenes? Who benefits?  Who is in control?

I also get the feeling that we might have seen the high for equities.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 07:10am

    #2
    Nate

    Nate

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 456

    count placeholder4+

    binary

I have never seen a more effective mechanism for strangling small business, and transferring the wealth from regular people to corporate America, than a lockdown. And at this point it is pretty clear that lockdowns don’t even work.  Who is arranging this behind the scenes? Who benefits?  Who is in control?

When I ask friends about the lockdown, I get 2 distinct answers:  the first is group is scared to death of the pandemic and have no issues staying locked down.  Saving lives trumps the economy (most of these folks live on pensions and have no debt).  The second group says the lockdowns are all bullshit and will end after the election.  Most of these folks operate a small business or farm.

Another observation is that in 2016 everyone was scared to publicly support Trump.  I now hear a lot of individuals openly supporting Trump.

So who is behind this?  Armstrong points the finger at Gates and Soros.  Two dirtbags.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 09:28am

    #3

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder5+

    zinc & cancer

JAG, jmone:

Here’s a paper I stumbled across while sorting out what a “zinc ionophore” is.

Executive summary: cancer cells don’t like zinc.  They have a mechanism in place (called a “transporter”) to kick out all the zinc from within the cancer cell.  Thus, zinc + ionophore selectively kills cancer cells.  There is even a case study on point.

https://actascientific.com/ASCB/pdf/ASCB-04-0223.pdf

Here’s an earlier paper, by the same author, that goes into more detail as to why the industry has turned a blind eye to this situation:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5183570/

Author describes his mouse model here, using clioquinol:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4531383/

If my mom were still alive and dealing with her cancer situation, this is the very first thing I would try.

As to why this hasn’t been recognized before – well, chemo treatments are super expensive, patented, and so on.   Mom’s chemo treatments were about $8000.  And they were extremely toxic.  Zinc + ionophore is about $30.  We’ve seen this game play out with SC2.  Its likely the same playbook has been run, quietly, on zinc + ionophore for cancer too.

Zelenko is now thinking that zinc + ionophore could fix influenza too.

What else might it fix?

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 10:02am

    #4

    Jim H

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1199

    count placeholder6+

    PM Daily Market Commentary – 08/13/2020

DaveF said,

 We’ve seen this game play out with SC2.  Its likely the same playbook has been run, quietly, on zinc + ionophore for cancer too.

Like so many things, once you have seen it with your own eyes.. you can’t un-see it.  Question everything.

As I learned in my early (Covid-19) due diligence on Chaga mushroom, it is likely that compounds from mushrooms have much more medicinal value than we have been led to believe as well;

https://singularityhub.com/2014/11/12/exponential-medicine-paul-stamets-unravels-the-link-between-mushrooms-and-cancer-treatment/

In June 2009, Stamets said, his mother was diagnosed with late stage breast cancer. She was reticent to visit the doctor’s office, and when she did finally go, after a fearful phone conversation with her son, she was given three months to live.

The doctor prescribed a treatment of chemotherapy and Herceptin and noted a study into turkey tail mushrooms. Perhaps she could take some of those too. On the advice of the doctor (she had to hear it from him) and Stamets—she did.

Five years on she’s cancer free, the only survivor of a group of fifty patients taking Herceptin. According to Stamets, the turkey tail mushroom suppresses inflammatory response, enhances the microbiome, and may be a powerful adjunct cancer therapy. “We think it decloaks cancers for discovery by the immune system,” he said.

We’re beginning to discover a set of very complex molecules formed by mushrooms according to Stamets. Two coumarin compounds unique to a variety of Agarikon, for example, have been shown to help fight the bacteria that causes tuberculosis. Agarikon also exhibits antiviral activity against cowpox, swine and bird flu, and herpes.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 01:24pm

    #5
    Nate

    Nate

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 456

    count placeholder1+

    mid west storm

A high school buddy from Iowa contacted me regarding the massive storm that just hit the mid west:

The destructive storms laid siege to more than 10 million acres of Iowa’s corn and soybean crop, devastating farmers and capping off what has already been a difficult few years of farming for many.
Up to 43 percent of the state’s corn and soybean crop has suffered damage from the storms, a severe blow to a $10 billion industry that’s central to the Hawkeye State’s economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/12/iowa-derecho-corn-damage/

Here are some of his comments:

Beans are ok, corn is spotty. We have insurance with regards to extra harvesting expenses. Just spent 30k to get attachments that will help pick up down corn so can be gathered into the corn head.

A large % of their crop goes to Quaker Oats to make grits (use white corn) and a local ADM plant that produces HFCS and/or EtOH (whatever pays them more).  I wonder how long it will take to effect food prices.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 04:13pm

    #6

    JAG

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 485

    count placeholder3+

    Massive Midwest Storm

Thanks Nate for that info. I don’t watch much news so I had no idea.

Now I know why my DBA (AG fund) calls gained 30% in a day, lol. I thought I was just a lucky Texas dumbass.

DF,

I’ve been taking zinc + quercetin (an ionophore) for the last few months because of covid, but thanks for the links on cancer research.

I spent about a decade compiling medical research as part of my business back in the early 2000’s. One thing that I learned is that nutritional supplements rarely work as marketed, if at all.

I won’t take supplements if they are a “refined” product because nature just doesn’t work in isolation. Our physiology developed from the ecosystem we have inhabited over our history as a species.

All that being said, I find that life (or covid) has turned me into a hypocrite once again, thus the zinc + quercetin.

If you are interested in quercetin, here is a good review of the research.

Friday is here and it is BEER time, thank God.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 06:52pm

    #7

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder2+

    supplements

JAG-

I didn’t get the sense this guy (Leslie C Costello) is about supplements.  He’s about killing cancer cells. Oncology PHD.  He’s had a thing about zinc and cancer for the past 20 years.  I ran into him by accident when researching ionophores.  Clioquinol is the strongest zinc ionophore on the list.

His biggest annoyance – the common thread in his recent papers – is that nobody will fund his research; they always drag out this one “weak” reference from two decades ago about how some retrospective study that purported to show that zinc supplments tends to increase cancer risk.

In the old days I’d have gone along with this.  “Oh, scary, zinc increases cancer risk.”  These days, after the HCQ kneecapping, I’m deeply suspicious when funding is denied by NIH for a simple, inexpensive treatment for a condition which makes Pharma huge amounts of money.

He’s proved it in a mouse model now, and treated exactly one patient, who had a remission.  The latest paper is from 2020.  His earliest “hey!  zinc is involved in prostate cancer!” comes from 1998.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Leslie_Costello

Here’s his earliest paper on how zinc inhibits growth of prostate cancer cell lines, from 1999.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/12901560_Inhibitory_effect_of_zinc_on_prostate_carcinoma_cell_growth

It isn’t until 2015 that he encounters the zinc ionophore Clioquinol.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281056552_Evidence_that_Human_Prostate_Cancer_is_a_ZIP1-Deficient_Malignancy_that_could_be_Effectively_Treated_with_a_Zinc_Ionophore_Clioquinol_Approach

I found it instructive to go through his list of publications and see how he got to where he is today.

Sorry if I’m overselling this.  It just struck me as utterly fascinating that zinc + ionophore might be a generic anti-viral, and curiously, that zinc + ionophore might also be a generic anti-cancer treatment too.

I wish I had lots of money.  I’d fund this guy’s trial (after hiring a bunch of bodyguards) and we find out soon enough.

  • Sat, Aug 15, 2020 - 05:29am

    #8
    Nate

    Nate

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 456

    count placeholder1+

    Uncle Warren

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK BRK unloaded more than a quarter of its stake in Wells Fargo & Co. WFC and about 61% of its position in JPMorgan Chase JPM, while acquiring a new position in Barrick Gold Corp. GOLD, according to 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the period ended Jun 30, that were released Friday afternoon.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-berkshire-buys-gold-miner-barrick-slashes-wells-fargo-and-jpmorgan-stakes-amid-coronavirus-2020-08-14

Maybe the old man hasn’t lost it.

Viewing 8 posts - 1 through 8 (of 8 total)

Login or Register to post comments