PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/08/2021

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  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 03:53am

    #1
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/08/2021

Gold fell -18.59 [-1.09%] to 1681.65 on heavy volume, while silver dropped -0.11 [-0.43%] to 25.18 on moderately light volume. The buck rallied [+0.39%], SPX fell [-0.54%], crude plunged also [-2.37%], as did bonds [the 10-Year yield rose +4.0 bp].

Gold fell for much of the day, starting in Asia, finallly making the day low at around noon in New York. The long black candle was neutral, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Gold/euros dropped -8.88 [-0.62%] to 1418.21 on heavy volume. The long black candle was a bullish continuation, but forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in both the daily and monthly timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest rose +15K contracts. That was 5 days of global annual production in new paper added to the market. Current open interest for GC: 45% of global annual production, up +1.41% today. 506 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

Gold made a new 12-month low today; we are back in April 2020 territory at this point. There was a lot of shorting today; that is quite unusual with prices down this far. It feels as though “someone” wanted gold even lower. D/W/M RSI-7=19/20/40, which is oversold in the D/W timeframe. There was no bullish reversal today.

Silver shot higher in Asia, up almost $0.70 at one point, but then sold off during the London session, and then chopped sideways for the rest of the day. The long black candle was a low-percentage bearish reversal (28%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest fell -1.4K contracts. Current open interest for SI: 87% of global annual production, down -0.78% today. 25 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.44 to 66.79. That’s bullish.

While today looked like a failed rally for silver, it did not make a new low, and there was actually a small amount of short-covering. This is a sharp contrast to what happened in gold. In spite of the better performance, however, there was no bullish reversal for silver either.

The miners opened lower, chopped sideways for most of the day, and fell into the close. GDX dropped -1.23% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ fell -2.00% on moderate volume. XAU fell -1.40%, the closing black marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, dropping into a downtrend. XAU is in an uptrend in the monthly timeframe.

The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.14%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.78%. That’s somewhat bearish.

No new low for the miners today. In spite of the sizable drop in gold, the miners largely avoided any large moves down. There still seems to be buy-side support for the mining shares right now, which I read as suggestive that we are nearing a low for gold. I know I keep saying this, but the big money wouldn’t be moving into the high-risk miners if they thought gold was going substantially lower.

Platinum rose +7.91 [+0.69%], and palladium fell -21.39 [-0.93%]. Both items remain in short-term downtrends.

Copper fell -0.03 [-0.73%] to 4.07 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a reasonably strong bearish reversal (46%), forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Copper is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Copper tried to rally today but failed, but neither did it sell off hard. Copper remains below the 9 MA, and in a mild short-term downtrend.

The buck climbed +0.36 [+0.39%] to 92.34 on very heavy volume. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. The buck is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Major currency moves included: EUR [-0.48%], JPY [-0.59%].

Another strong rally for the buck today, which broke out to a new 4-month high. The dollar uptrend looks quite strong right now.

Crude plunged -1.57 [-2.37%] to 64.60 on moderate volume. The closing black marubozu candle was a reasonably strong bearish reversal (45%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Crude rallied in Asia, but then spent the rest of the day selling off, closing at the lows. The candle print was quite bearish, and forecaster plunged – not quite enough for a downtrend. While crude remains above the 9 MA for now, today’s price action definitely looked bearish.

Here are two articles talking about the state of affairs in crude oil today: an unexpected, voluntary production cut by Saudi Arabia, the drop of 3.1 mbpd from US shale production, and a missile attack on a Saudi tank farm.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Surprise-Cut-May-Have-Lasting-Effect-On-Oil-Prices.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Falls-After-Spiking-Due-To-Missile-Attack-On-Saudi-Tank-Farm.html

SPX fell -20.59 [-0.54%] to 3821.35 on moderately heavy volume. The long black candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. SPX is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

Tech [-2.48%] led the market lower, along with communication services [-1.35%], while utilities [+1.39%] and materials [+1.32%] did best. This was a bearish sector map.

The VIX moved higher, up +0.81 to 25.47.

Equities tried to rally today, but the rally failed. The sector map was also fairly bearish, what with tech leading lower and all. That said, NYSE Advance Ratio was 60%, which says that the decline was just a few large issues, and not the overall market. Basically,Big Tech, miners, and sickcare were hit, while the rest of the market moved higher. “Sector rotation.”

TLT dropped -0.78%. The black marubozu candle was a possible bullish reversal (38%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. TLT is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield rose +4.0 bp to +2.32%.

TY dropped -0.36%. The short black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in all three timeframes. The 10-Year yield rose +4.0 bp to +1.60%.

It was a new low, and a new closing low for bonds today. It looks like money is moving to “cash” from the longer-dated issues. Anything >= 1 year duration fell: 6M: -1bp, 1Y: +1bp, 2Y: +2bp, 5Y: +7bp, 10Y: +4 bp, 30Y: +4bp. (Note: rising rates = falling bond prices. Who wants low-yielding bonds in a rising rate environment? Not me, certainly).

JNK dropped -0.70%. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. JNK  is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Crappy-debtholders are now starting to look a bit worried. Rising rates are bad for them too, and so the sell-off in JNK is starting to pick up steam.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -5.83 tons, with 1063 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -4.43%
* PHYS -1.30%
* PSLV +0.24%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.81%
* silver [100 oz]: +15.62%

While the gold physical ETFs remain in discount, PSLV is back in premium once more. Big bars premiums at retail remain high.

Trading volume of PSLV has fallen to 9m/day, which is 3.6x normal, but well down from the 46m/day record set back on Feb 1.

Interesting video (but long, and technical; h/t wotthecurtains) on the details behind bankster manipulations of the commodities markets. The presenter reads from chat log transcripts where the banksters literally conspire to wang the prices of the metals around. Banksters were fined – of course, nobody in that industry ever goes to jail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmJ9uWTN3bM

Summary

Gold, silver, and the miners all moved lower today. Gold made a 12-month low, the miners look a bit better (they remain near an 8-month low), while silver just made a six-week last Friday, but remains well above the 200 MA, and in a longer-term uptrend. Silver seems to have a reasonable amount of support at around $25.

Risk assets all moved lower; SPX, crappy debt, crude, and copper all moved lower. That said, the drop in SPX looked like sector rotation to me. Even though the index fell, 61% of all issues moved higher today. This says it was just the big stocks that pulled the index lower. Basically – big tech. That’s my “pandemic is ending” trade coming true again. Airlines did especially well: AAL.N [+4.99%], DAL.N [+3.61%], LUV.N [+6.38%], UAL.N [+7.01%]. [FD: I’m long AAL].

Bonds fell once more – the 10-year has been moving steadily lower (10-year yield: moving steadily higher) for the past 7 months. The 10-year yield hasn’t been here [1.60%] since February 2020. If we are expecting a deflationary crash, it certainly isn’t showing up in rates. In fact, bonds are saying exactly the opposite

The buck rallied all day long, which mostly mirrored gold’s plunge. While money is flowing into the dollar, it isn’t going into bonds. Or – mostly – equities. That leaves cash

About that “pandemic end” situation – Big Money sure seems to think the end is coming sooner rather than later:

Ah, but what does Two-Mask Fauci say? The 80-year-old lifetime bureaucrat, with a guaranteed government salary (and the prospect of some very attractive “post public service” employment opportunities, possibly in the Pharma area) gave an interview on CBS:

The US recently has averaged about 60,000 to 70,000 new coronavirus cases reported each day.
Dr. Anthony Fauci told CBS on Sunday that this was “not an acceptable level.”
Another surge in cases with levels already so high would be “risky,” he said.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-warns-us-coronavirus-case-plateau-unacceptable-2021-3

Yes. Does anyone remember “Two Weeks to Slow The Spread”, back in … March 2020?

How long do we think Dr Doom will be able to keep this game running? How many younger people in those unfortunate Blue States will end up dying deaths of despair while he continues to shill for his true constituency?

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 04:53am

    #2
    VTGothic

    VTGothic

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    “About that ‘pandemic end’ situation…”

…frankly, I’m done with it all.

We are planning a neighborhood open-invitation party in mid-June. (Gotta let the snow melt and the ground dry out first.) It will be outside, and therefore possible for guests to keep as much distance as they each think is necessary but, as with Joel’s farm visit, we will suggest that those who have problems with non-masking might better choose to skip it.

We took Covid-19 very seriously last February and March, when we didn’t really know what might have been coming. Then, because my wife has a chronic condition that nearly killed her twice some years ago, we remained careful through the summer and fall, gradually relaxing as we learned more, embraced the prophylactic practices, and became more certain where the charade in the narrative is located. (For the record, she’s been on hydroxychloroquine for almost 30 years – something we learn has given her a sheen of protection better than I have; a recent Covid test required for a minor procedure confirms she is clear.)

By New Years we were confident we’re fine, the game’s highly rigged, and all we need is normal flu season precautions – which basically means don’t spit in each other’s faces. Since then we’ve had several dinners with friends and will have more.

Our life is returning to normal as spring arrives no matter what the official guidance urges. Or demands. We’ve had enough.

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 05:45am

    #3

    sand_puppy

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    Mountain Rural Virginia — No COVID in the EDs

COVID is really fading out here in the rural mountain communities of Western Virginia where I’m working this week.  Wise, Norton, Appalachia, Big Stone Gap, Hot Springs.

I had decided that I might need to demonstrate antibodies to SC2 to be admitted to some of my more traditional family members’ homes.  I’m not going to get a vaccine without published safety data.  So I needed to get the infection.  But, a mild case!

So my strategy changed to seeking a mild exposure to SC2, to be followed within 24 hours with full blast double strength ivermectin treatment x 5 days.  (And a couple of others off Covid19Crushers twitter list.)  But that intention has been foiled as I can’t find any infected patients in the ED all week!

I am totally done with all this locking down and isolation, too.  I also feel nothing but contempt for the national health establishment leadership.

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 05:52am

    #4

    JAG

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    Ivermectin versus Vaccine Advice Wanted

I’ve been taking the dreaded horse paste as a preventative measure for some time now. I take it twice, separated by a day, every 10-day period. Don’t ask how I came to use that schedule, but it seems to be working (knock on wood).

My immediate family got COVID at Christmas and they seem to have gotten through it ok, though my wife had to go to the hospital for a few days and my daughter had a myriad of post-COVID complications.

The question now is do I stay on my horse paste or do I get the vaccine?

I’m much more inclined to stick with the horse paste but now that the vaccine is available to me I thought I should at least consider it. My father and brother have gotten the vaccine and they have been nagging me incessantly about it.

I often made it a point to go against the “crowd” in my life. I’m getting absolutely murdered in the markets using that approach right now, though I have deleveraged a bit. Do I want to bet my actual life on if Ivermectin is going to (or continue to) work?

The science behind both Ivermectin and the vaccines seem legit to me, and I’ve put my due diligence in on both. The research on non-COVID applications of Ivermectin are astounding. And of course, we have no idea what the long-term consequences for either Ivermectin or the vaccines are (other than there will be some kind of consequences).

Anyone care to offer some feedback? Thanks in advance.

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 05:57am

    #5
    davefairtex

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    hard vs easy again

Here’s a repost of the updated “Hard vs Easy” table – on request from a member.  What the Oligarchy wants us to do (and what their media water-carrier-narrative-drivers tell is is “good”), vs what they kind of don’t want us to do.

 

 

What is easy What is hard
Financial Tesla Exxon-Mobil
Digital Money Cash
Equities Gold & Silver
COVID19 approval for on-patent meds approval for HCQ/IVM
Vaccination Nutritional Supplements
functioning immune system
publishing studies on expensive compounds that don’t work publishing studies on cheap compounds that work
Masks – 2 masks – 3 masks! Exercise
MRNA vaccine Inactivated RU/CN vaccine
Lockdowns Herd Immunity
School closures In-person learning
vaccinating children children dont get COVID
Life Zoom Face-to-face human interaction
Video Games Family gatherings
Online entertainment In-person learning
Phone addiction Church
Human/Machine interfaces Gyms & Exercise
Drones Travel
Internet of Things Bars & Restaurants
Renting Ownership
Amazon Small Business
white privilege Private firearm ownership
“mostly peaceful protests” white supremacist insurrections
Family abortion children
sperm count/obesity
sperm count/marijuana
sperm count/pthalates & BPA
Child gender reassignment
birth control
Information facebook/twitter/youtube parler/gab/bitchute
Fact checkers inconvenient facts & science
mainstream media context
questioning vaccines
deplatforming questioning climate change
Ministry of Truth anything off-narrative
“for the children” strong encryption
surveillance privacy
You-are-the-product
Government Mail-in ballots Identifying voters
Dominion Voting Systems Paper ballots
BLM-Antifa Local law enforcement
FBI Local law enforcement
Technocrat government Populism
Anti-Racism Deplorables + Bernie Bros
Globalization Nationalism
Open Borders jobs for americans
Energy Climate Change Fossil Fuels
Wind & Solar Fracking
Food Synthetic Meat Beef
Factory Farms nutritious food
nutrient mining/soil depletion regenerative farming
pesticides/herbicides
  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 06:12am

    #6
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    IVM vs vaccines

A vaccine that plays with my cellular structure to emit frankenstein-like fragments that annoy my immune system in ways that have been tested for about 3 months – I mean if you aren’t planning on living many more years, then sure why not?  Limited downside, because you’re about to die anyway.

I’m not at that point.  I figure I have another 30-40 years of fun left.  I’d rather not roll the dice on stuff that still has the paint drying on it.

I still haven’t upgraded my mac to Big Sur.  Because, well, I just don’t do that sort of thing.

And – there’s the incentive structure.

1) they have no legal liability

2) it is so exciting and attractive, they are trying hard to make it mandatory.  (Have they ever made “ice cream” mandatory?  Not so much.)

3) you will need a new shot every year.  maybe two.  because, variants.

4) If you are older, there’s about a 30% chance it will do nothing for you.

5) and its about 100x more lethal than the flu vaccine, given same number of targets.

Vs ivermectin which has been given 3 billion times for 40 years with virtually no side effects

And – here’s a thought – just relax, live your life, and if you happen to get the freaking virus, spend the 5 days with ivermectin, get over it, and then you have antibodies.  That’s a well-tested vaccine – i.e. your natural immune system – which has been evolved over millenia to deal with threats just like this.  And if not – well – you’ve lived your life.  That’s not a terrible outcome.

BTW, long covid – supposedly IVM helps with that as well.  FLCCC had a video on that one.  Also: niacin too, according to the long hauler blog.  Worth a shot.  All you have to lose is your LDL cholesterol.

Not medical advice, etc.

Yup. I’m over it all as well. I’m a life long resident of South Dakota and we had 7, yup, 7 positive cases yesterday statewide. I honestly don’t know if there was some reporting issues or something because we’ve been 100-200/day for last couple weeks. Yawn…

on a side note: we passed a bill yesterday where girls can only play girls sports and boys can only play boys sports so there’s that

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 07:05am   (Reply to #4)

    #8
    EddieLarry

    EddieLarry

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/08/2021

JAG, I am taking orange juice, sun for Vitamin D, zinc and quercetin from blueberries and strawberries.  I feel great.  In my humble opinion, healthy people are resistant to CV.  Unfortunately, we have a lot of people who are told they are healthy but they are not.  I don’t know why people need invermectin until they actually get CV.  But that is just me.  Stay well.

PS, just last week I got my first Moderna vaccine.  So far so good.

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 07:10am

    #9
    EddieLarry

    EddieLarry

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/08/2021

“Not medical advice, etc.”

True!  Stay well.

  • Tue, Mar 09, 2021 - 09:42am

    #10
    hail

    hail

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    Power to the people.

After listening to wotthecurtains‘ video it seems futile to invest in silver.

We need more participation. so, besides PSLV I’m supporting billboards.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/silver-squeeze?qid=cbfba04e7a43883f0ed40ac5d5092b42

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