PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/02/2021

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  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 03:24am

    #1
    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/02/2021

Gold made a new low in Asia [to 1704], then chopped steadily higher for the rest of the day, finally closing at the highs. The long white candle was a possible bullish reversal (37%), forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. Gold is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Gold/euros climbed +7.47 [+0.52%] to 1439.69 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a possible bullish reversal (38%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest rose +1.5K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 43% of global annual production, up +0.14% today. 939 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

Well. Now that first notice day has passed, it looks like the beatings from the banksters have stopped. While the candle print was just mildly bullish, forecaster thinks gold is back in an uptrend. Open interest in gold has fallen to a new 18-month low. This is important because long-term open interest lows tend to happen around longer-term lows in price. That’s just how things usually work out.

Like gold, silver sold off in Asia, but the low for silver [25.82] came earlier, and the rebound seemed stronger. The takuri line candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest fell -102 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 90% of global annual production, down -0.06% today. 69 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.02 to 64.75. That’s neutral.

While the tea leaves aren’t calling this a bullish reversal, it looks like one to me. Once again I’m going to point at the low in open interest, which lines up with first notice day, and often lows in prices. Today’s print had a huge lower shadow, which I take as a positive sign – traders definitely bought the dip in Asia, and then some.

Miners opened higher, then rallied sharply for the first half of the day, chopping sideways in the afternoon. GDX climbed +3.43% on moderately heavy volume, and GDXJ rose +3.51% on moderately heavy volume. XAU moved up +3.46%, the swing low2 candle was a reasonably strong bullish reversal (48%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. XAU is in an uptrend in the monthly timeframe.

The GDX:gold ratio climbed +2.50%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio climbed +0.08%. That’s bullish.

It was a good day for the miners, possibly even good enough for a bullish reversal. Forecaster isn’t quite there yet, and the miners remain below all 3 moving averages. Let’s call this a hopeful sign.

Platinum rose +19.25 [+1.59%], and palladium rose +11.31 [+0.48%]. Both platinum and palladium are back in mild uptrends.

Copper shot up +0.11 [+2.68%] to 4.21 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a possible bearish reversal (30%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Well it looked for a moment as though copper really was going to correct, but today’s rally wiped out half the losses from the “correction.” Today’s candle print was very mildly bearish; I’m not sure it means anything. Copper remains above all 3 moving averages, and in a strong longer-term uptrend.

The buck dropped -0.24 [-0.26%] to 90.78 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a low-percentage bearish reversal (25%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. The buck is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Major currency moves included: CAD [+0.35%], EUR [+0.32%], GBP [+0.35%], AUD [+0.69%].

The buck staged a big failed rally today; tea leaves suggest it wasn’t quite enough for a bearish reversal, but it sure looked unpleasant to me. The dollar reversal didn’t coincide specifically with the PM rally, but the move did seem to help overall.

Crude fell -0.73 [-1.21%] to 59.39 on moderate volume. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Crude is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Crude continues to fall. This is looking more like a top for crude – at least a short-term top anyway.

SPX dropped -31.53 [-0.81%] to 3870.29 on moderate volume. The dark cloud cover candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. SPX is in an uptrend in the monthly timeframe.

Tech [-1.61%] led the market lower, along with discretionary [-1.17%], while materials [+0.55%] and staples [-0.17%] did best. This was a bearish sector map.

The VIX rose +0.75 to 24.10.

While the candle print wasn’t bearish (in spite of the ominous name), forecaster wasn’t happy. Price also closed back below the 9 MA, which is a bearish sign. NYSE advance ratio was 43%, which isn’t a hugely bearish rating. However. This could end up being a lower high. And weekly forecaster is on the fence. I think SPX could go either way here.

TLT inched up +0.01%. The short white candle was unrated, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. TLT is in a downtrend in the weekly timeframe. The 30-Year yield fell -4.0 bp to +2.19%.

TY climbed +0.21%. The closing white marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in all three timeframes. The 10-Year yield fell -5.0 bp to +1.40%.

Bonds had a good day today, but it was still not enough to pull the 10-year back into an uptrend, or back above any of the 3 moving averages, because the plunge last week was just that unpleasant. The 10-year futures (TY) remains below all 3 moving averages. It looks as though the 10-year is getting a bit more love than the 30 year right now.

JNK dropped -0.22%. The long black candle was unrated, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. JNK is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Crappy debt appears to have run into resistance at the 50 MA. This sure looks like a bearish chart to me. This could be partially about the correction in crude (lots of those shale drillers have crappy debt owned by JNK), but I also think its about the threat of rising rates in general.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand climbed +2.62 tons, with 1087 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -3.00%
* PHYS -0.82%
* PSLV -0.08%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.77%
* silver [100 oz]: +14.43%

Physical ETFs are now both in discount; premiums on the big bars at retail for both silver and gold remain elevated.

Volume on PSLV fell to less than 10M shares today – that’s the lowest level in several weeks, but still 4x higher than normal. With PSLV in discount, Eric Sprott will be unable to buy more bars for the fund. At this moment, it appears that this phase of the “silver squeeze” may be coming to an end – right as the banksters have removed their knee from the neck of the SI contract at COMEX.

So to speak.

Summary

Gold, silver, and the miners did well today, with the miners recovering the most. There were hints of bullish reversal across the space; all of the metals did well today.

Watching what happened last week in the metals markets, it felt as though there was a “whole of market-segment” action to suppress the silver squeeze. My guess: that’s because any success by the little people in this small market would then be immediately applied to other, larger, more important markets. Money always moves in anticipation of events.

The “dominance” of the banksters is a fragile one. We believe they control things, and so they can. This paradigm of enforced helplessness is writ large across the entire society.

The truth is, there aren’t very many of them. And there are a whole lot of us. That is why they must crack down so very hard, across all these markets – in all these different areas – in order to make sure that “the silver squeeze” doesn’t succeed today. Hope breeds hope, after all. I honestly think its just a matter of time before it all blows up. That’s where we are in the story right now. But the destruction of the bankster short position in silver will not happen today. They managed to push that off into the future. For how long? That all depends on us. And, of course, on the generalized inflation which seems to be increasingly baked into the cake, which will end up being a forcing function in the due course of time.

You can’t inject money into the system, while killing off productive business, preventing people from working using “health” policy (because – pandemic), resulting in higher prices for everything, without people noticing eventually and taking action to compensate. Is this whole plan just a way to inflate away the debt? US Debt/GDP is at 127%. We are at banana-republic levels.

Risk assets were mixed today; equities, crude, and crappy debt fell, while copper rallied. How long can crazy copper continue moving higher with the rest of the risk assets correcting?

Bonds did well today, a counter-trend rally. It was still not enough for a bullish reversal, but it was an improvement after the big crash last week. Dead cat bouncing, I think.  Unless there is a deflationary crash, rates go higher from here on out.

The buck may have reversed direction today; it needs confirmation tomorrow. The reversal happened in London, and the follow-through came just after 10:30 am in New York.

And the news items that caught my eye:

Texas has decided to reopen. No more statewide mask mandate. All businesses can reopen.

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1366846908480815106

There was an immediate wave of pretend-shock-and-horror across all of Team Apocalypse. CA Gov French Laundry immediately called the move reckless, shortly after being spotted at a dining establishment (again!) where – he insists – he wasn’t actually dining. CA has banned dining indoors. Because, pandemic. Exception for Governors, of course. Perhaps His Excellency is on Ivermectin prophylaxis, which I’m told is incredibly effective.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-appears-to-post-tik-tok-inside-restaurant-in-county-where-indoor-dining-is-not-allowed

The pandemic is slowly inching towards its predictable, premature-for-the-Reset-Gang ending, even without the benefit of Ivermectin, which “somebody” with a great deal of power and influence is trying mightily to suppress. From what I can tell, the suppression effort looks similar to what happened in the Silver Squeeze – an “all of society” suppression effort that has been remarkably successful to date. Especially in England, as the following 3-part hour-long interview lays out:

Anna Brees 3-part 1 hour interview:
* David Rose (senior journalist; Guardian, Daily Mail)
* Dr. Tess Lawrie (British Ivermectin Research Discussion lead)
* Dr. Pierre Kory (FLCCC)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP36UgVjMPk

Article by David Rose:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9297449/Drug-used-treat-lice-scabies-drug-cut-Covid-deaths-75-research-suggests.html

The three things that the interviewer, and the three interviewees all have in common is humanity. They care. You can see it in their eyes. Dr Lawrie at one point is clearly quite disturbed. “I feel somewhat culpable”, she says. “I’ve known about this for several months. I feel I should find a way to communicate this more effectively.”

She blamed herself. Not Pharma. Not NIH. Not NHS. Not the rampant corruption, not the Great Reset gang, not the amoral and sociopathic centers of power who clearly don’t care about the deaths and fear and societal dislocation and life-years-lost by using all their levers to torpedo this cheap drug. No. She blames herself.

This pandemic is a mirror. It shows us – and the whole world – who we are. Where do we stand on the important issue of the day? Are we human? Do we have a moral compass? Or are we – something else?

So, here’s a message to those who are engaged – actively or passively – in suppressing the presentation of this evidence: I ask you the following question: what will you tell your child when she asks, “Dad, what did you do during the pandemic?”

If your honest answer is, “I helped suppress the release of evidence that would have saved millions of lives” – because, say, you were long MRNA, MRK, or PFE, or your succumbed to some sort of other financial pressure or inducement. If your friends and family find out what you did, they will step slowly away from you, ashamed to be associated with someone whose actions led to the deaths of who-knows-how-many people. Worst will be your own self-assessment. You will know the truth of what you did. You will have to live with it for the rest of your life.

Of course you might try to say you were “just following orders.” Or “everyone was doing it.” Or “you had no idea.” But inside you will know the truth. We are going through the most meaningful – and revealing – event of this generation. You can still be the hero. There is still time.

Not much, though.

I leave you with a picture – worth 1000 words – of where our utterly bankrupt national “health” establishment wants to lead us:

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 05:32am

    #2

    lambertad

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    effort against IVM

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/frontiers-removes-controversial-ivermectin-paper-pre-publication-68505

After being contacted by The Scientist, the journal posted a statement from Frontiers’s chief executive editor, Frederick Fenter, saying that “Frontiers takes no position on the efficacy of ivermectin as a treatment of patients with COVID-19, however, we do take a very firm stance against unbalanced or unsupported scientific conclusions.”

In comments on Twitter and in an interview with The Scientist, the organization’s president, Pierre Kory, describes the move as “censorship.” He adds in the interview that the paper had already successfully passed through multiple rounds of review. In reversing the paper’s acceptance, the journal is “allowing some sort of external peer reviewer to comment on our paper,” he says. “I find that very abnormal.”

The propaganda is palpable. They refer to Dr Kory, by his first name and leave out the title Dr., lest you lend some credibility to what he has to say. The whole article reads like a propaganda piece. I’m sure the internet is full of other pieces just like this. Not worth my time to search for more, but just highlighting the bias we all already knew existed.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 08:32am

    #3
    davefairtex

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    ownership

I wonder who owns these magazines?  I mean, if I wanted to control the flow of information, owning the mag seems like a really good idea.

Bezos owns WAPO. Hmm.

https://blog.frontiersin.org/2018/04/05/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-joins-frontiers-list-of-open-access-funders/

I think its time to create a new set of magazines.  Ones not owned by Pharma.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 09:02am

    #4
    Grover

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    Make a Stand

davefairtex wrote:

So, here’s a message to those who are engaged – actively or passively – in suppressing the presentation of this evidence: I ask you the following question: what will you tell your child when she asks, “Dad, what did you do during the pandemic?”

If your honest answer is, “I helped suppress the release of evidence that would have saved millions of lives” – because, say, you were long MRNA, MRK, or PFE, or your succumbed to some sort of other financial pressure or inducement. If your friends and family find out what you did, they will step slowly away from you, ashamed to be associated with someone whose actions led to the deaths of who-knows-how-many people. Worst will be your own self-assessment. You will know the truth of what you did. You will have to live with it for the rest of your life.

Of course you might try to say you were “just following orders.” Or “everyone was doing it.” Or “you had no idea.” But inside you will know the truth. We are going through the most meaningful – and revealing – event of this generation. You can still be the hero. There is still time.

Dave,

I really appreciate your bottom line thoughts here. I’ve found in life that it doesn’t matter so much what happens to each of us … it matters how we respond. We can either become victims or do something about it. Victimhood is an inherently weak position that usually invites more suppression.

Texas is opening up. Their governor has stood up for what he believes to be right. They’ll be the guinea pigs. Unless the virus makes a strong comeback, other States will follow suit. Too bad Governor Abbot doesn’t use the bully-pulpit to talk to his people about vitamins, minerals, and IVM as prophylaxis. That would ensure a more positive result.

I’m doing my part to share pertinent information with friends and colleagues. I tell them that science from poorer countries shows the efficacy of these treatments. It is only in the rich countries that big Pharma has commandeered our so-called representatives (through lobbying and campaign contributions) and mainstream media (through threatening to remove advertising dollars.) As a result, we are driven to accept their solutions that enrich big Pharma even more … so they can influence our once-hallowed government and media even more.

Grover

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 09:20am

    #5
    davefairtex

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    free will

Grover-

I really appreciate your bottom line thoughts here. I’ve found in life that it doesn’t matter so much what happens to each of us … it matters how we respond. We can either become victims or do something about it. Victimhood is an inherently weak position that usually invites more suppression.

I agree 100%.  We cannot control events.  The only thing we can control is our reaction to said events.  This is the essence of free will.

How we choose to react is everything.

We are many.  They are few.  That is our advantage.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 10:26am

    #6

    thc0655

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – Oh Dave, you’re such an optimist!

Dave wrote,

If your honest answer is, “I helped suppress the release of evidence that would have saved millions of lives” – because, say, you were long MRNA, MRK, or PFE, or your succumbed to some sort of other financial pressure or inducement. If your friends and family find out what you did, they will step slowly away from you, ashamed to be associated with someone whose actions led to the deaths of who-knows-how-many people. Worst will be your own self-assessment. You will know the truth of what you did. You will have to live with it for the rest of your life.

Dave I know you know better than this because I’ve read you closely for a decade. “Bad people” don’t think or feel like us. They have consciences “seared as with a hot branding iron.” (1 Timothy 4:2) Of course I’m talking about the psychopaths, sociopaths, narcissists and others on whom social shaming and a guilty conscience have absolutely no impact. They can commit all kinds of literal atrocities in cold blood and feel not the least twinge of remorse or guilt. Their behavior can only (barely) be controlled by the fear of imminent physical suffering, punishment or death, but that’s about it. In nearly all cases, they are irredeemable though I’m enough of an optimist to have tried several times with the worst of the worst. (I believe the worst of the worst should be confronted with their transgressions and given a chance to repent and reform. Those who do that kind of work must realize the incredibly low odds of success but be idealistic enough to give it a try.)

If we can’t hope that our tormentors feel really guilty or get publicly shamed (and perhaps straighten up and fly right), do we have any hope at all? Yes, we can hope for proportional justice in a court of law, but I’ve mostly given up on that since 2008 in the US. It seems Cloud People don’t have to face the “just-us system” like us Dirt People do. Personally, I have one last hope: Almighty God will conduct a final accounting of every single human being and all those scoundrels will be found guilty of every hurtful word, every harmful action and even every destructive thought. There will be no bribes, plea bargains or anything of the sort to thwart ultimate justice. And then the guilty-and-unforgiven will be cast into eternal, constant, unimaginable suffering. I rest myself on that assurance no matter how much they get away with in the here-and-now.

Gratefully, most people have never interacted significantly with a sociopath or psychopath, and I’ve seen how hard it is for a “normal” person to accept that these people exist and what they’re like. You really have to meet them in person to feel the evil and have the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. However, this prison video of Richard Speck comes close to the real thing. Now imagine a man like Richard Speck but with an IQ over 130 with a fabulously successful career and smart enough not to give an interview like this. Imagine that man as a US Senator, a corporate executive, or a billionaire investor.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 10:36am

    #7
    davefairtex

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    sure

Tom-

We outnumber them 99:1.

We will win in the end.  We are many, and they are few.  That’s why they are afraid.

That’s not to say we should sit back and do nothing.  We need to be brave and take a stand where we can.

Here’s the thing: we don’t need to win every battle.  Just 1 in every 100.  Because we outnumber them so badly.  My sense.

That’s why they are so scared.  Fences around the capitol.  National Guard.  Etc.  Its all a projection of weakness.  Not strength.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 11:07am   (Reply to #7)

    #8
    stevedaly

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 03/02/2021

Do you trust in Big Government to protect you? Is the great American adventure coming to an end?  Or does God have a way forward for us that hasn’t yet been revealed?

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 11:31am

    #9
    davefairtex

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    the American adventure

Do you trust in Big Government to protect you? Is the great American adventure coming to an end?  Or does God have a way forward for us that hasn’t yet been revealed?

Well, I just focus on what my inner nature tells me to do.

I have always been guided.  If you are quiet and listen, I suspect you too will hear what you need to hear.

If you study American history you might wonder at all the unfortunate things that “America” has done at the behest of the money interest.   I’ve always felt like the vision of American Exceptionalism is pretty cool.  Unfortunately it has been hijacked by a bunch of evil scumbags.

That doesn’t detract from America’s promise.  Well, not for me.  We just need to remove the scumbags from positions of power.

I really do think America’s exceptionalism remains.  “The city on the hill.”  There are a thousand implementation details that stand between this concept and reality, but the concept remains.

  • Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - 12:49pm

    #10

    thc0655

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – Agreed

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