PM Daily Market Commentary – 02/25/2021

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  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 03:12am

    #1
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 02/25/2021

Gold fell -35.11 [-1.94%] to 1770.41 on heavy volume, and silver plunged -0.58 [-2.07%] to 27.49 on moderate volume. The buck inched lower [-0.02%], SPX dropped hard [-2.45%, crude was mostly unchanged [-0.02%], while bonds absolutely cratered [the 10-Year yield rose +15.0 bp]. Cratered — bonds absolutely cratered today.

Gold sold off all day long today, ending the day at the lows. The opening black marubozu candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Gold is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Gold/euros plunged -37.36 [-2.51%] to 1449.53 on heavy volume. The opening black marubozu candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. Gold/euros is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest rose +128 contracts. Current open interest for GC: 45% of global annual production, up +0.01% today. 2531 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

There was no big spike down today, just a steady move lower from the open to the close. Also, there was no short-covering. I’m not sure what that means. Deliveries at COMEX were moderate – but a “real” delivery day (say the one that happened last June) will have more than 30k contracts standing for delivery. We will have to see what happens tomorrow. Definitely, a plunge in price immediately prior to FND encourages anyone thinking about standing for delivery to bail out. Today’s candle print was bearish, and forecaster is bearish too; gold ended the day well below all 3 moving averages, which is bearish. The tea leaves are not predicting a low for gold.

Silver looked a bit different – it chopped sideways in Asia and London, only starting downhill at about 8 am, then selling off for the remainder of the day. The long black candle was neutral, forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. Silver remains in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest rose +1.1K contracts. Current open interest for SI: 99% of global annual production, up +0.64% today. 5904 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.08 to 64.40. That’s neutral.

Silver’s intraday chart didn’t look nearly as bearish as gold. While silver did close below the 9 MA, and forecaster dropped into a downtrend, the longer term uptrend remains intact. The 5904 contracts standing for delivery was a large number, but is about half as many as we need to really terrify the bankster shorts. Front month OI (SIH21) yesterday: 28,342, today: 16,093. So we could definitely see some fireworks tomorrow if the front month open interest sticks around.

Miners gapped down at the open, tried to rally in the first 5 minutes, then sold off through end of day. GDX dropped -4.07% on very heavy volume, and GDXJ plunged -5.39% on very heavy volume. XAU fell -4.18%, the long black candle was a possible bullish reversal (32%), forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in both the daily and monthly timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio dropped -2.21%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -1.40%. That’s bearish.

Well it was a bad day for the mining shares; it felt as if they were dragged down by the overall plunge in equities, as well as by the drop in gold itself. The miners dropped through all 3 moving averages, wiping out the gains of the past week. Could this really be a bullish reversal like the candle suggests? The rating isn’t very high – so probably not. Where the miners go almost certainly depends on what happens in the silver squeeze.

Platinum fell -52.11 [-4.25%], while palladium fell -39.82 [-1.66%]. Palladium remains in an uptrend, but not by much, while platinum appears to have tipped over into a downtrend.

Copper plunged -0.12 [-2.78%] to 4.20 on heavy volume. The long black candle was a possible bearish reversal (36%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Did copper just reverse direction? Maybe so. The bearish candle print had a high rating (although this specific candle type isn’t generally all that dangerous). And yet – copper has done a lot of this over the last 10 months. Too soon to tell, I think, for copper.

The buck inched down -0.02 [-0.02%] to 90.12 on very heavy volume. The high wave candle was a possible bullish reversal (32%), forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. The buck is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

Major currency moves included: EUR [+0.58%], JPY [-0.41%], AUD [-0.31%].

The buck recovered from a reasonably strong sell-off today; most of the gains happened in the afternoon in New York. The candle print was positive, and forecaster really liked the action too. We’ll need confirmation tomorrow to see if this is a real reversal.

Crude fell -0.01 [-0.02%] to 63.39 on moderate volume. The spinning top candle was a low-percentage bearish reversal (27%), forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Crude just chopped sideways today. No change in trend for crude.

SPX plunged -96.09 [-2.45%] to 3829.34 on moderately heavy volume. The strong line candle was neutral, forecaster dropped, dropping into a downtrend. SPX is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Discretionary [-3.86%] led the market lower, along with tech [-3.62%], while utilities [-0.91%] and sickcare [-1.01%] did best. This was a bearish sector map.

The VIX screamed higher, up +7.55 to 28.89.

Oh doctor. NYSE Advance Ratio: 13%. Everything moved lower today. The selling started early in London (in the futures markets overnight), SPX tried to rally at the open, failed, and then the market just chopped lower for the rest of the day. Today’s move was enough to drag both daily and weekly into a downtrend. SPX did seem to find support at the 50 MA. The sector map was incredibly bearish: when tech and discretionary leads lower, with utilities doing best, that’s a classic bearish sector map.

This is starting to look like the real thing. Curious that it is happening right at the same time as “the silver squeeze.”

TLT fell -1.63%. The long black candle was a possible bullish reversal (33%), forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. TLT is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield rose +6.0 bp to +2.30%.

TY fell -1.26%. The opening black marubozu candle was a possible bullish reversal (39%), forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in all three timeframes. The 10-Year yield rose +15.0 bp to +1.53%.

Bonds just got crushed today; a +15 bp move for the 10-year is a really large move, especially over the last 10 years. The 30-year didn’t do as badly – there was some buying at end of day that kept it from getting crushed also.

JNK dropped -0.86%. The strong line candle was neutral, forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. JNK is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Wow crappy debt looked worse than equities – it just sold off all day long. I’m guessing it was pulled down by the wave of selling in the treasury market. Crappy debt is now in a strong downtrend.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -6.12 tons, with 1100 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -3.39%
* PHYS -0.57%
* PSLV +1.43%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.81%
* silver [100 oz]: +15.31%

Physical ETFs continue to diverge; PSLV is moving higher into premium, while PHYS remains in discount. Sprott has more ammunition to buy more of those big silver bars. Premiums at retail moved higher for both gold and silver.

The last post by Sprott on PSLV was Feb 25th, where he said he picked up 1.5m oz of silver. Maybe he’s one of the people standing for delivery at COMEX? If not him, then his buying on the open market is almost certainly helping.

Cross-posting the Silver Squeeze thread: over there, they are talking about how to stop your broker from lending your shares out short by – say – putting in a limit order to sell your PSLV significantly above the market. Does that do anything? I don’t know! My best information is that that turning your account into a non-margin account does actually work.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/silver-squeeze-is-this-the-big-one/

Economic Reports

Fed Balance Sheet: 7590.1B, +32.7B (+0.43% w/w), Liquidity Swaps: 6.8B, -1.4B, Reverse Repos: 203.5B, -1.6B, Treasury Securities: 4844.6B, +20.5B (+0.42% w/w), MBS: 2180.7B, +10.1B (+0.46% w/w). This week was about Treasurys and MBS. Nothing special – just $1.5 trillion in printing, annualized.

Durable Goods, new orders: headline +3.30% m/m, capital goods new orders (excl aircraft): +0.49% m/m, shipments: +1.94% m/m. All the elements moved strongly higher this month. All are now well above pre-pandemic highs.

Summary

Gold, silver, and especially the miners fell but – in truth – just about everything sold off today.

Silver’s chart remains relatively strong, while both gold and the miners are looking quite weak. Gold could easily make new lows tomorrow. The miners are a bit stronger, but not by all that much.

How many of the current 16k SIH21 contracts will finally stand for delivery? We just don’t know. The more that do, the more scared the banksters will be. That’s a nice thought.

Risk assets were largely down; equities, crappy debt, and copper all had really bad days, while crude managed to stay flat.

Bonds were crushed also today – relatively rare to see both equities and treasury bonds selling off hard on the same day. Looking at the moves intraday, the 10-year sold off all day long – in the futures markets overnight, right through to the close in New York. Apparently there was a “bad auction” today, which led to a nasty-looking spike lower at 13:02 Eastern, which lasted just one minute. Was that rapid bounce back due to the Fed stepping in to “assure smoothly functioning markets?” Gee, ya think maybe? To me this speaks to some serious underlying weakness in the Treasury market. I’m not sure if now is the time to buy those long-dated treasury bonds.

The buck was unchanged, although under the covers, there was a big rebound in the buck just minutes prior to the unpleasant treasury auction – the dollar rally started at roughly 12:55 pm, through about 1:30 pm. Likewise, equities bounced after that “unpleasant auction” at 1pm.

I’m not sure what to make of all this. Higher rates, certainly. But a day when everything sells off? It looks and sounds like a “move to cash.” Traders aren’t fleeing the buck, and the equity sector map does suggest selling in the leading sectors – which is always a bearish sign. So far at least, it seems like a move to cash. With some Silver Squeeze/First Notice Day shenanigans in there for fun.

And – for the stories that caught my eye:

In a wild and previously unthinkable departure from 76 years of US nuclear deterrence and international relations, a bunch of congressional Democrats sent a letter to Old White Joe asking the alleged Commander in Chief to relinquish his sole command over the nuclear arsenal of the country.

“As president, two of your most critical and solemn duties are the security of the country and the safeguarding of its nuclear arsenal,” the letter reads, noting the president’s sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons assures keeping them under civilian control.

“However, vesting one person with this authority entails real risks,” Panetta and Lieu continued.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/25/democrats-ask-biden-to-give-up-power-to-launch-nuclear-bomb/

Indeed. Especially when it is Old White Joe with his trembling finger on the button. Who knows what he might do – and then promptly forget that he actually did it. Just A Sign of the Times? Was it all about the Bad Orange Man? (If so, why wasn’t this in the raft of executive orders that dropped into place the day of the Inauguration?) Or maybe – a stopgap measure prior to the upcoming Operation 25th Amendment? Perhaps there some event that we don’t know about that got everyone nervous? Will we ever know?

Whatever the cause – It is NOT a sign of strength and confidence in the new Administration. It is yet another sign of breakdown in the current order. I think Old White Joe only lasts another month. Maybe two. Who gets to be the new VP after Harris takes over? What does this do to the buck – and the treasury market? Anything?

The Daily Mirror published a semi-pro-Ivermectin article today!

Scabies and head lice drug could be ‘global solution to the pandemic’ says study

According to a study more than 30 trials across the world show that ivermectin causes ‘repeated, consistent, large magnitude improvements in clinical outcomes’ at all stages of the disease.

The latest study, soon to be published in the US journal Frontiers of Pharmacology, claims the evidence is so strong that the drug should become a common therapy everywhere.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/scabies-head-lice-drug-could-23561927.amp

Hey, guess what? The Mirror article referenced a study which was…written by Pierre Kory, Paul Marik, and 8 other people!! Wow!!

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.643369/abstract

Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19. [Provisionally accepted. The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon].

There was an interesting line buried deep into the comment section:

Michael Lardelli If this article was accepted for publication on 13 January, why has the final, formatted article not been published after nearly 6 weeks?! Usually it takes only days for final publication at Frontiers. Why the delay?

Why Indeed? Like the mystery of the prospect of Biden having the nuclear codes removed from his uncertain grasp – after more than 70 years of the Commander in Chief retaining this responsibility – even the Bad Orange Man – why has this paper by Kory et al not been published after (presumably) passing peer review after six long weeks? This is yet another mystery.

Perhaps the Resetters needed a few popular press articles to cast some shade on the report – “a scabies and head lice drug!” – and have those articles make it into the popular consciousness prior to actual publication. Narrative framing: “sure there’s a study, but this can’t possibly work. This drug is for head lice. You don’t have head lice, do you? Ewww.”

Head lice & scabies drug now, but four years ago, the consensus was “a multifaceted wonder drug”:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ja201711

Clearly, Pharma – the Resetters – whomever – continue to fight their rear-guard action against Ivermectin. Meanwhile, thousands of First World citizens continue to die without treatment, which even the poorest people in India can get for RS 2.

https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/ziverdo-kit-23045672448.html

[Not medical advice. Not a product recommendation. But if you lived in India, you could buy this OTC. Just saying.]

Here’s the thing: they wouldn’t need to be staging a rear guard action if their position wasn’t about to be overrun.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

It feels to me like it is getting ready to happen.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 04:25am

    #2
    RandomMike

    RandomMike

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    Doctors wondering

I bet that scabies story has a lot of doctors scratching their heads.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 05:28am

    #3

    sand_puppy

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    SDR Starting–PMs and BTC as escapes

Similar to a post by thc0655 yesterday, an article at ZH today reports:

US Treasury head Janet Yellen [and former Fed Chair] called on the G20 for new allocations of fiat IMF SDR notes in a letter today [Feb 25, 2021].

Likely the coming SDR notes will have a $500 billion per year allocation. And they will likely be issued for many years upcoming.

Congress has no say in the matter, given that the US portion of the loan is under the $120 billion per five-year threshold. …

But this is possibly the start of an IMF SDR liquidity injection into the global economy that sets off the “Great Reset” of the world monetary order and global financial structure.

And a Tweet By David Collum:

A ban on cash is equivalent to locking the nightclub door before you set it afire.  BTC and Gold are rational responses to this.

I would like to point out that BTC functions differently than most digital money.  For example, a digital version of the US Dollar FRN is nothing but a FRN.  It is really important to not conflate a digital dollar with BTC.

Bitcoin’s supply cannot be increased, its ledger does not live in the banking system, and it is permissionless:   ie — it requires no permission to be sent to nations being punished by sanctions, to cross national boundaries or sent to support political movements under suppression by the oligarchy.

Yes absolutely the oligarchy could persecute this form of money and make its use difficult.  It can also persecute cash and PMs.

Store of value:  I am thinking of removing BTC from the exchanges, dividing it into several portions, then putting each portion on a separate hard wallet that is disconnected from everything.  The wallets would be numbered and moved to separate physical locations for physical hiding.  It would be quite difficult to steal or raid the entirety of this stash.

 

 

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 05:51am

    #4

    thc0655

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – Signs the pandemic is winding down

https://www.aier.org/article/how-does-all-of-this-end/

There is a sense in the air that the pandemic is winding down, and the toxic culture of division, fear, and hatred along with it. Cases are down dramatically. Deaths too. Hospitalizations are no longer irregular. Restrictions are being repealed. You can follow all the action daily at the CDC’s new and unusually competent landing page on the virus (it only took them a year to build this).

Despite all the talk of a new normal and infinite mandates, there is hope that it could all unwind quickly, pushed by force of public impatience and frustration with restrictions, and a political scramble to avoid responsibility by running away from all that they did for the last year.

The list of signs and symbols could be made very long.

The politicians who overreached are suddenly being held accountable, with both Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom on the hotseat. Calls for governors and mayors to resign consume state and local news. There is clearly major political tumult building.

The Great Barrington Declaration scientists can hardly keep up with the requests for respectful interviews, now that it is becoming clear that they were right all along.

The experience in open states like Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, and so on, makes it impossible to ignore the grim truth that the lockdowns achieved nothing for public health but did harm health, businesses, liberties, law, and civilized life.

The push to open economies, by the same people who locked down the economies, such as Boris Johnson in the UK, is an implicit repudiation of the nonsensical ZeroCovid movement. Everyone seems now to agree with what AIER has been saying for a year: humanity must deal intelligently with pathogens and stop pretending that political forces can control them.
AIER visiting senior fellow Naomi Wolf had a hit just last evening on the Tucker Carlson show, and they spoke as allies in the reopening efforts after years of ideological sparring.

There is growing weariness of Anthony Fauci’s daily word salads that have massively mixed up the public health messaging for a full year, to the point that Meghan McCain has called for his firing.

A year ago, Slate was making sense until the virus became political and they joined the lockdown mob. Now the publication is back to making sense again, with this excellent piece.

British medical journal The Lancet is publishing excellent short pieces on the cost of lockdowns, including this riveting letter from Martin Kulldorff.
A prestigious European journal of public health has published a blistering attack on the very idea that a power government should ever be trusted with virus mitigation….

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 06:16am

    #5
    MGRS

    MGRS

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    JM Bullion’s lowest premium silver round

In other news, JM Bullion’s lowest premium, in stock silver round is:

https://www.jmbullion.com/1-oz-biden-build-back-better-silver-round/

I wonder why demand is so low???

Want one just for the irony, but can’t bring myself to pay for it and encourage production of more.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 07:21am

    #6
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    they sure do want gold lower

Its really amazing to see just how hard gold is being h it right now.  This is as severe as it gets.  No “cause” for it.  Just trying to stop the silver squeeze.  My sense anyway.

Bonds?  Equities?  Other commodities?  Currency?

Nope.  Just gold & silver.

This is the banksters and the Fed, fighting back.  They really, really don’t want you to take delivery of those pesky molecules.  They are trying to pound price to convince all the front-month longs to liquidate, so as to preserve the ounces they have in their vaults.  It will be interesting to see what things look like at end of day – how many did they rinse out, vs how many stuck it through.  This was a big hit.

Gold -50 [-2.76%] silver -1.32 [-4.79%].  Just incredible.

Still first hour though.  What I mean by that – if you are looking to try and “buy the low” – wait until after the first hour.  And sometimes after the first 90 minutes.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 07:45am

    #7
    MGRS

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    PM’s – BTFD?

Anybody buying?  Any strategy to it?  I’m thinking of adding more PHYS, maybe SILJ and gold miner ETFs.

I get the beatings may continue until morale improves, but I never thought I’d see gold at 1730 again.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 07:56am

    #8
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    a bit more

I picked up some PHYS down here at what I thought were the lows.  I know its not silver, but the OI for gold has been just wiped out.  It should be near a low at some point.  Certainly the commercial shorts are suggesting we’re near a low anyway.

At some point.

It isn’t a perfect indicator.  But it is looking more like buy than sell.

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 08:19am

    #9

    JAG

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    PMs

I gave up on PM’s and the miners awhile back, figuring that we wouldn’t see a trend change until after another liquidity crisis in the larger markets.

I keep one long-term (2022-23) call option each for SILJ, GDXJ, PAAS, SLV and GOLD just so I can track the option market pricing easily. They are getting creamed today.

This same thing kinda happened last year, with gold and silver tanking before and with the larger markets.

One would think that with all the inflation fear that gold and silver would not be selling off, but markets don’t make sense on purpose. The market’s only purpose is to take the little guy’s money and give it to the big guy.

One lesson from last year is that if you are hoping to buy physical during a crash you won’t be able to.

 

  • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 08:22am

    #10

    sand_puppy

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 02/25/2021

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF currently has a NEGATIVE PREMIUM and the BTC price is down.

 

bought some GBTC, PHYS and PSLV.

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