PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021

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  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 05:05am

    #1

    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021

Gold fell -2.22 [-0.12%] to 1872.99 on moderate volume, while silver inched up +0.10 [+0.39%] to 26.03 on moderately light volume. The buck fell fairly hard [-0.38%], SPX was unchanged [+0.03%], crude likewise [+0.13%], while bonds inched lower [the 10-Year yield rose +1.0 bp].

Gold chopped mostly sideways with a lower bias today. The bearish harami candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Gold remains in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Gold/euros dropped -7.42 [-0.48%] to 1541.55 on moderate volume. The bearish harami cross candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Gold/euros is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest fell -3.2K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 51% of global annual production, down -0.29% today. 3 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

Hmm. While the tea leaves say all is well for gold, this is on a day when the buck dropped fairly substantially. And gold moves lower? Gold/Euros is now back below the 50 MA.

Silver chopped sideways today also, but it looked more positive. The short white candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Silver is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest rose +825 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 97% of global annual production, up +0.48% today. 115 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.36 to 71.96. That’s bullish.

Not much happened today with silver – it did a bit better than gold, but it was only enough to stay even given the drop in the buck.

The miners fell in the first few hours, but managed to recover some of the losses by end of day. GDX fell -0.92% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ dropped -1.33% on moderately light volume. XAU moved down -1.40%, the opening black marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, but forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.80%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.42%. That’s bearish.

Forecaster didn’t like today’s decline for the miners; neither did I. XAU ended the day below the 50 MA, which was a bearish sign. Miners tend to lead, and they continue to look weak, and this doesn’t bode so well for the metals overall.

Platinum rose +13.68 [+1.21%], while palladium fell -23.82 [-1.00%]. Platinum staged a big rally, which mostly failed. Platinum made a new 5-year high just today. Palladium continues moving lower; it too had a failed rally, but it ended the day below the 50 MA.

Copper was unchanged at 3.64 on moderate volume. The doji candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Copper didn’t do much today – narrow trading right, just above the 9 MA, and it remains relatively close to its recent high.

The buck dropped -0.34 [-0.38%] to 90.11 on moderate volume. The opening black marubozu candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. The buck is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Major currency moves included: EUR [+0.36%], GBP [+0.51%].

Today’s drop took the buck below the 9 MA, which is a bearish signal. The buck remains in a downtrend. The falling dollar didn’t seem to help gold at all today.

Crude rose +0.07 [+0.13%] to 53.01 on moderate volume. The southern doji candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Crude is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Crude just chopped sideways today too. Like many other instruments, crude traded in a narrow range.

SPX rose +1.22 [+0.03%] to 3853.07 on moderately heavy volume. The short black candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. SPX is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Tech [+1.27%] led, along with discretionary [+0.46%], while energy [-3.50%] and materials [-1.49%] did worst. This was a mildly bullish sector map.

The VIX dropped -0.26 to 21.32.

SPX tried to rallly in the futures markets overnight, but the rally failed. As with most everything else – it traded in narrow range today.

TLT dropped -0.70%. The confirmed bearish nr7 candle was neutral, but forecaster fell, dropping into a downtrend. TLT is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield rose +3.0 bp to +1.87%.

TY inched down -0.11%. The long black candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. TY is in a downtrend in both the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-Year yield rose +1.0 bp to +1.11%.

Bonds appear to be edging lower now. TLT is back below the 9 MA. It feels like they’re moving back into a downtrend.

JNK dropped -0.06%. The spinning top candle was unrated, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. JNK is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes.

No material change in crappy debt today.

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand was unchanged at +0.00 tons, with 1174 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -3.76%
* PHYS -1.75%
* PSLV -2.51%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.50%
* silver [100 oz]: +3.30%

Physical ETF discounts have fallen somewhat, big bar premiums for gold at retail look reasonable, while big bar premiums
for silver continue to weaken.

Economic Reports

Fed Balance Sheet: 7414.9B, +81.0B, Liquidity Swaps: 10.9B, -241M, Reverse Repos: 209.8B, +7.0B, Treasury Securities: 4743.6B, +19.8B MBS: 2099.8B, +60.3B. Wow, that was a lot of MBS.

Summary

Gold and the miners moved lower, while silver inched higher. This, on a day when the buck fell, suggests weakness for PM, at least to me. XAU dropping back below both the 9 and 50 MA lines is not a good sign.

As mentioned, the buck fell. It now appears to be moving lower with slightly more enthusiasm.

Bonds are also moving lower, although not as rapidly.

Risk assets did almost nothing.

Not much happened today. The hints of bad news from the PM complex came after two strong rally days. Maybe they just need a rest.

Perhaps the country is holding its breath. Rumor is, the troops “guarding” DC (after undergoing “loyalty checks”) were bored, rather than “on edge”, as were the police and secret service. The Army appears to have been used strictly as backdrop in a theater production.

Below find a list of the Biden Donor Executive Actions. I wish I had the time to sort out who gets the goodies, and who gets hosed. Many of them seem to be cosmetic. Many are not. Here is the subset that caught my eye:

* Re-engage with the WHO
* Rejoin Paris Climate Agreement
* Revoke permit for Keystone Pipeline
* Extend eviction and foreclosure moratoriums
* Extend student-loan pause
* Illegals will now be counted in the census – affects seats in Congress
* DACA reinstatement
* Masks required on all Federal property, and by all federal workers
* Eliminates “terrorist country travel ban”
* Establish COVID19 Pandemic Testing board, expands testing [1]
* Revoke Trump’s EO-13768 re: Illegals within the US – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13768
* Sets goal: 100 million [vaccination] shots in 100 days – Federalizing at least part of the vaccination campaign.
* Improve collection/analysis of COVID19-related data [2]
* Requires facemasks at airports & transport
* Establish a COVID-19 Health Equity Task force

[1] construct a plan to ensure for surveillance tests at locations, like schools.
[2] Centralizing control of COVID19 data flow might improve it. It also allows the government to…make adjustments to the data to suit its policy requirements.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-of-president-bidens-key-executive-orders-in-one-chart-2021-01-21

Below find a rough list of all the EO’s regarding “stopping the pandemic.” Which, since we may well have reached herd immunity ten days ago, could all be moot. But who can say? If herd immunity has been reached, this will give Old White Joe the opportunity to claim that he defeated COVID-19 with all these fantastic policies.

Any treatments mentioned? Not that I saw.

https://www.aha.org/special-bulletin/2021-01-21-president-takes-executive-actions-aimed-containing-covid-19-pandemic

And from the rumor mill:

There is talk of a split within the Republican party. When a small number of “neocon” Republicans (the old-style “country club” Republicans that don’t really like their new base so much) volunteered to throw Trump under the Impeachment II bus, I started to hear this sort of chatter.

Likewise, the Democrats may well be showing similar signs. The AOC wing of the party is repelled by the thought of a Domestic Terror bill. [Perhaps they remember how Bernie “lost” both the 2016 and 2020 primary races. And HRC’s purchase of the DNC in 2016. Such a bill could well be applied to them too come 2022. There is absolutely no way the Biden Donors want anyone in the Bernie Wing of the party to win any more elections.] The race-baiting and faux-wokesterism employed by Brennan and the rest of the Biden Donors may not be enough to keep them toeing the line.

The real threat to Washington & the Donor class: if the Sanders & Trump wings of both parties ever get together. So far its just a faint possibility. But it is something I’m watching. It would be a revolution if it occurred.

Lastly, I believe that Ivermectin is becoming more and more likely to become standard of care in the US. Thank the FLCCC for this. The current NIH recommendation – “neither for nor against” – is the same recommendation they provide for Remdesivir, Convalescent Plasma, and Monoclonal Antibodies. A prescription for ivermectin-as-prophylaxis might not be so difficult to get. Supposedly, IVM prescriptions have jumped from 5k/day to 35k/day over the past few weeks.

The NIH statement:

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/statement-on-ivermectin/

The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) has determined that currently there are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19. Results from adequately powered, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.

Check out the bitcoin-like move in the # of IVM prescriptions for IVM in recent weeks. Once the news breaks, it may well become impossible to find.

https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1349841399768875009

 

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 06:28am

    #2

    JAG

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021

I bought a couple more TLT call options yesterday. I feel like it was a dumb move but I have to stick with the plan of buying overt weakness.

At least they were super cheap so I won’t lose much.

I almost bought bitcoin again last night when it hit 29K. I decided to be patient. I’m sure the market will make me pay for that decision too.

The breadth measures in the stock markets have been unbelievably good. What is so weird about them is that you only see breadth thrusts like this immediately after major bottoms, not at all time highs like we are seeing now.

I would say the markets are being manipulated, but it’s more likely that I just suck at trading.

These Robinhooders don’t seem to have any trouble trading:

 

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 08:33am

    #3
    wotthecurtains

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021

That ivermectin prescription graph is really cool.

I just re-upped my stromectol prescription at great cost.   I have the horse paste but the wife is not sold on the apple flavored Vaseline part of it so we get the pills too.

Was funny to see Chris write the Ivm is gonna be the N95 Mask of 2021 because I was thinking the same thing when I ordered.  I worry about the coming shortages.

That horse paste is gonna be hella expensive soon.  I would never think to try to resell at a profit but its interesting to think what a hero you could be to someone in need when that stuff is $200 a tube and unavailable anyway and you can just give them one from your stash.

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 10:57am

    #4

    davefairtex

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    social capital

wot-

Yes.  Think: social capital.  If you have some extra ivermectin for your friends in the middle of the pandemic, once it is blessed, and supplies run low, they’ll almost certainly remember it.

That’s my theory anyway.

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 11:11am

    #5

    davefairtex

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    bitcoin

I think trading bitcoin right now – you have to be pretty nimble.  Its hard to know if “the top is in, and goldman has sold all their inventory at the highs” (like usual) or if this is just a brisk correction in bitcoin’s inexorable rise to a $billion per coin.

I’d be willing to bet that 29000 is an interim low.  How long that holds is anyone’s guess.

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 11:59am

    #6

    jturbo68

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021

Likewise, the Democrats may well be showing similar signs. The AOC wing of the party is repelled by the thought of a Domestic Terror bill. [Perhaps they remember how Bernie “lost” both the 2016 and 2020 primary races. And HRC’s purchase of the DNC in 2016. Such a bill could well be applied to them too come 2022. There is absolutely no way the Biden Donors want anyone in the Bernie Wing of the party to win any more elections.] The race-baiting and faux-wokesterism employed by Brennan and the rest of the Biden Donors may not be enough to keep them toeing the line.

The real threat to Washington & the Donor class: if the Sanders & Trump wings of both parties ever get together. So far its just a faint possibility. But it is something I’m watching. It would be a revolution if it occurred.

This scenario would be the bulk of the people (left & right) in the country realizing that their lot in life is to be against the elites.  For 2020 the mass of the democrats were scared into going Biden vs Bernie.   From what I can tell, the dems learned enough from the 2016 Republican and Dem Primaries that they cannot let a populist candidate get up a head of steam and they cannot split the votes amongst multiple corporatist candidates.

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 02:30pm   (Reply to #5)

    #7
    Mots

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/21/2021 Bitcoin

Dave, thank you for continued comments about bitcoin speculation/evaluation.

I wonder what you think of the fact that most bitcoin is bought via an apparently fraudulant organization “tether” that just prints up dollars of fake money to buy bitcoin. see https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

Also, what do you think of the fact that a bitcoin transaction costs 8$.  see https://privacypros.io/tools/bitcoin-fee-estimator/

This is a big cost savings over sending money via a bank (I have to pay 15$, so bitcoin transactions are only half as expensive).  But because bitcoin is very volatile, I dont mind paying the extra 7 dollars to send money internationally via a bank that does foreign currency transactions as part of the sending.

Bob Maloney does a great service by exploring the crypto space.  In particular, I really like the idea of a distributed ledger to keep track of information integrity.  In a (coming) world wherein a 100$ software can be used to contrive/spoof entire video of people giving speeches, we really really need cryptos such as hashgraph to solve serious problems of tracking information such as basic communications to make sure that they are genuine.  I predict that within 2 years Chris and Adam will incorporate a distributed ledger “currency” as part of using this site to maintain and increase fidelity and quality.  The “currency” would be used to verify each transmission in a manner similar to the use of SSL certificates to help verify websites.  Heck, this might be a good angle to get more people to pay monthly.

I wonder which crypto you favor for these extremely important new applications.  I understand that this was the basic promise of etherium but that the transaction costs of etherium are way too high for such routine use for documenting histories of information and flow of material goods.  My basic take home message from Maloney’s videos are that distributed ledgers (while not blockchain per se) are up to the task.  But, anyone can build their own ledger for these uses without having to buy someone else’s shitcoin. So, the need to buy and hold shitcoins seems unnecessary for most of the real important uses of crypto.

I think that the meaning of this new technology is way more profound and needed than the bitcoin acolytes realize.  We already have gold, platinum, silver, private contracts etc to invest in and bitcoin does not obviate big brother’s watching and taxing us (physical gold works better).  And, (except as an advertising ploy) we cannot use bitcoin directly for the many direct payments for day to day things like a coffee, haircut etc.  The miners have made it clear that fees will only increase more as new bitcoins run out.  Bitcoin already uses 1% of all generated energy on the planet to run a tiny percentage of financial transactions.  “Energy is everything” as CM points out and is needed for things like making food……

The problem of fake communications and fake data is addressed by the new cryto technologies.  It seems to me that this is where the technologies will greatly improve our freedom by helping us find and maintain truth.   I hope that our precious minds/energies are spent on these applications.  Enough with the get rich quick schemes.

  • Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - 09:01pm

    #8

    davefairtex

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    digital signatures

Mots-

One fix for deepfakes: cameras (phones, etc) could have their own crypto keys which will be used to apply a digital signature to videos taken.  Perhaps not frame-by-frame, but segment by segment.  If you want to produce authenticated video,  you flip the switch, the camera applies the signature to all the frames.  Video apps will be able to check whether the video was taken by a valid phone or camera from that manufacturer; manufacturers could store all the keys in a server, much like email providers provide keys for email digital signatures for the emails they serve.

The deep fakes won’t have a registered crypto key, and so they (like websites these days that don’t have an up-to-date site key – resulting in warnings from the browser) will cause an alert by the video players.

In other words, this can be fixed w/o blockchain tech, but using similar technology.

Once deepfakes start to be an issue, the phone and camera manufacturers will fall all over themselves to provide this feature.  Just my guess.  Same thing happened in the email space decades ago.

This is why the Podesta Emails – and the emails stored on the Hunter Biden laptop – could not be disavowed.  Thanks, digital signatures.

Does that sound novel and non-obvious?  🙂

  • Sat, Jan 23, 2021 - 07:39am

    #9
    hotsauce

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    digital signatures

That would mean the signing key must be stored in the camera. You could extract that key and use it to sign any video file.

On another note, I personally bought some Ivermectin horse paste a few weeks ago. I’m only keeping it in case I need it as a treatment. At the time I thought I had bought more than enough.

Now, with it being officially allowed in the US, and with more news that people can contract the virus more than once I’m wondering if I bought enough. I never imagined people I know might be desperately trying to get a prescription filled. I thought it would be money making vaccines or nothing for the general public.

It also just occurred to me to find out what companies manufacture both forms of the drug (human and horse) and see if they are publicly traded. Any company can manufacture Ivermectin, but it takes a while to get setup. Whoever is making it right now is going to be swamped with orders soon.

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