PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/16/2020
Gold fell -3.76 [-0.24%] to 1557.78 on moderate volume, and silver moved down -0.05 [-0.28%] to 17.99 on moderately light volume. The buck climbed [+0.10%], SPX climbed [+0.84%], crude climbed [+0.83%], while bonds fell [10-Year yield rose +2.0 bp].
Gold chopped lower today in a relatively narrow range. The short black/NR7 candle was unrated, and forecaster fell, moving into a downtrend. Gold is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.
COMEX GC open interest fell -5.5K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 74% of global annual production, down -0.51% today. That looks like some short-covering for gold, which I think is a positive sign.
Silver also chopped lower in a narrow range. It too printed a short black/NR7 candle, which was a bullish continuation. Forecaster moved higher, but remains in a slight downtrend. Silver is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.
COMEX SI open interest fell -1.0K contracts. Current open interest for SI: 135% of global annual production, down -0.60% today.
The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.03 to 86.59. That’s neutral.
Miners gapped down at the open but recovered much of the losses by end of day. GDX dropped -0.42% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ fell -1.04% on moderately light volume also. XAU fell -0.56%, the doji/NR7 candle was unrated, and while forecaster moved lower, it remains in an uptrend. XAU remains in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.
The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.18%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.63%.
Platinum fell -18.30 [-1.81%], palladium rose +36.51 [+1.65%], while copper fell -0.01 [-0.46%]. That is – yes – yet another new all time high for palladium.
The buck moved up +0.10 [+0.10%] to 96.92 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. The buck remains in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.
There were no major currency moves today.
Crude rose +0.48 [+0.83%] to 58.57 on moderate volume. The swing low candle was a likely bullish reversal (65%), and forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. Crude is now in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes. Today appears to be a reversal for crude – the rating on the swing low print was extremely strong.
SPX rallied +27.52 [+0.84%] to 3316.81 on moderate volume. This was yet another new all time high for SPX. The white marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. SPX remains in an uptrend in all three timeframes.
Tech [+1.33%] led, along with industrials [+0.98%], while energy [+0.17%] and staples [+0.27%] did worst. This was a bullish sector map. So much for the prior signs of potential reversal – today SPX looked quite strong.
The VIX fell -0.10 to 12.32.
TLT dropped -0.32%. The doji candle was a bullish continuation, and while forecaster moved lower, it remains in an uptrend. TLT remains in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes. The 30-Year yield rose +3.0 bp to +2.26%.
TY fell -0.17%. The long black candle was neutral, and forecaster ffell, but remains in an uptrend. TY is still in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes. The 10-Year yield rose +2.0 bp to +1.81%.
JNK moved up +0.06%. The spinning top candle was unrated, and forecaster dropped, moving into a downtrend. JNK is in now a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. That’s pretty odd, given that JNK closed at a 2-year high today.
CRB fell -0.24%, with 3 of 5 sectors falling, led by agriculture (-1.57%).
Today was Fed Balance Sheet Update day: headline $4,175.9B, +26.3B (+0.63% w/w) (prior -0.58% w/w). Last week’s drop has been erased, with a little bit extra added on for good measure.
Retail Sales: headline +0.35% m/m (prior +0.40% m/m), retail sales (ex-autos): +0.74% m/m (prior -0.05% m/m). This is a reasonably strong sales number, especially the ex-autos number. This report is not recessionary.
Money printing is back, to the tune of $26 billion dollars this week. It appears that last week’s drop in the balance sheet was not a sign of things getting better in any permanent way.
Equities continue to race higher. Today the sector map looked bullish; when tech is in the lead, that’s a positive sign, and that’s what we saw today. It is all about money flows. Perhaps it was from the Fed’s $26 billion that “needed to be put to work?” From the cheap seats there is no way to tell.
Retail sales continues to look reasonably strong; this report was expansionary.
How’s that PM reversal coming? It took a bit of a pause today. Gold is looking weak – daily forecaster is suggesting it might be about to reverse back downhill again. Bonds also looked a bit weak. Currently the market is more interested in chasing the equity market higher. For now anyways.
Industrial production comes out tomorrow.
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Maybe I missed it but I’ve been surprised how little discussion there’s been here with regards to the stratospheric palladium and rhodium prices. Anyone know, for certain, what’s driving it? Also, any good suggestions on dealers who will buy it back not too much under spot? One I’ve dealt with isn’t buying rhodium now and is getting iffy on palladium while another I’ve dealt with is still buying but gave off vibes that left me uncomfortable.