PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/13/2021

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  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 03:10am

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    davefairtex

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/13/2021

Gold dropped -9.96 [-0.54%] to 1848.01 on heavy volume, and silver plunged -0.44 [-1.71%] to 25.27 on moderately light volume. The buck moved higher [+0.30%], SPX climbed too [+0.23%], crude fell [-0.75%], wihle bonds rallied strongly [the 10-Year yield fell -6.0 bp].

Gold chopped sideways with a slight negative bias, then sold off at end of day, closing near the lows. The short black candle was unrated, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Gold is in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes.

Gold/euros fell -7.02 [-0.46%] to 1518.86 on heavy volume. The dark cloud cover candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Gold/euros is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

COMEX GC open interest fell -4.0K contracts. Current open interest for GC: 51% of global annual production, down -0.37% today. 36 GC contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

Gold traded down in a narrow range today. The strong dollar rally did seem to pull gold prices somewhat lower. Trends right are weak. I have no clear picture of where prices go next.

Silver fell in Asia and London, making the day low around 8 am; it tried to rally, but failed, finally ending the day near the lows. The bearish harami candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. Silver is in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

COMEX SI open interest fell -691 contracts. Current open interest for SI: 97% of global annual production, down -0.40% today. 120 SI contracts stood for delivery at COMEX today.

The gold/silver ratio climbed +0.86 to 73.13. That’s bearish.

While silver was weaker than gold today, and it remains in a slight downtrend, it is still above both the 50 and 200 MA lines – that’s much stronger than gold, longer term.

Miners chopped sideways in the morning, then fell into the afternoon, closing at the lows. GDX dropped -1.11% on moderately light volume, and GDXJ fell -1.46% on moderately light volume. XAU moved down -1.67%, the long black candle was a possible bearish reversal (39%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. XAU is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

The GDX:gold ratio dropped -0.58%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.36%. That’s mildly bearish.

The miners looked pretty unhappy today – the close wasn’t great, and they ended the day below the 50 MA, which is a bearish sign. While it wasn’t a new low, it didn’t avoid this fate by much. The miners remain in a modest downtrend in all timeframes.

Platinum rose +22.98 [+2.08%], and palladium rose +8.53 [+0.36%]. For whatever reason, platinum is charging higher – it is back above the 9 MA, and in a reasonably strong uptrend. This is a strong divergence from gold & silver.

Copper fell -0.02 [-0.55%] to 3.61 on moderate volume. The opening black marubozu candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster climbed, moving higher into its uptrend. Copper is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

Copper remains in its uptrend, although it did manage to close below the 9 MA today, which is a bearish sign.

The buck climbed +0.27 [+0.30%] to 90.32 on moderate volume. The piercing candle was a bearish continuation, forecaster dropped, dropping into a downtrend. The buck is in a downtrend in all three timeframes.

Major currency moves included: CAD [+0.39%].

Right now it looks like the buck is struggling for direction; most of today’s move took place in Asia & London. The weekly chart looks a little clearer – the buck is in the process of forming a swing low, although it really needs to close a bit higher than the current price for it to be a solid one.

Crude fell -0.40 [-0.75%] to 52.89 on moderately heavy volume. The long black candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, but remains in an uptrend. Crude is in an uptrend in all three timeframes.

EIA report: Crude -3.2m, gasoline +4.4m, distillates +4.4m.

Crude made a new high (53.93) in Asia, but then fell for most of the rest of the day. A mildly positive EIA report was not enough to derail the retreat from the highs. The tea leaves say that the candle print wasn’t bearish, even though it looked like it to me. Forecaster retreated, but remains in an uptrend.

SPX climbed +8.65 [+0.23%] to 3809.84 on moderate volume. The spinning top candle was a bullish continuation, forecaster dropped, dropping into a downtrend. SPX is in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.

Utilities [+1.92%] led, along with REITs [+1.35%], while materials [-1.03%] and industrials [-0.87%] did worst. This was a bearish sector map.

The VIX fell -1.12 to 22.21.

No real change for SPX today; the sector map looked a bit unpleasant: when high-yielding utilities do well, its not a great sign. Forecaster now sees SPX in a short-term downtrend, even though it remains above all 3 moving averages. The RSI-7 for SPX isn’t all that horrid: 68/74/74; SPX is not particularly overbought.

TLT rallied +1.13%. The swing low candle was a likely bullish reversal (70%), forecaster climbed, rising into an uptrend. TLT is in an uptrend in the daily timeframe. The 30-Year yield fell -6.0 bp to +1.82%.

TY climbed +0.29%. The swing low2 candle was a probable bullish reversal (57%), forecaster climbed, but remains in a downtrend. TY is in a downtrend in all three timeframes. The 10-Year yield fell -6.0 bp to +1.09%.

A pair of solid swing low patterns; might bonds have put in a low? It sure looks like it. Given the stimulus and money-printing that’s going to hit soon, does this make sense? Hmmmm.

JNK climbed +0.28%. The swing low2 candle was a probable bullish reversal (58%), forecaster dropped, moving deeper into its downtrend. JNK is in an uptrend in the weekly timeframe.

Crappy debt also printed a bullish reversal, and it ended the day back above the 9 MA. Party time again for crappy debt?

Physical Supply

The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -10.50 tons, with 1171 tons remaining in inventory.

ETF Discount to NAV:
* CEF -2.55%
* PHYS -1.95%
* PSLV -2.94%
Gold dealer big bar premiums:
* gold [1kg]: +1.23%
* silver [100 oz]: +3.73%

Physical ETF discounts are rising, and big bar premiums are low – and falling at retail. This doesn’t look great.

Economic Reports

CPI All Urban: headline +0.37% m/m, CPI less-food/energy: +0.09% m/m. Thats an annual run rate of 4.4%, at least for headline inflation. CPIAUCSL is far above the pre-pandemic highs – and seemingly accelerating.

Summary

Gold, silver, and the miners all fell today, with silver in the lead. While prices didn’t move that much, I’m starting to get concerned at the low premiums at retail for both gold and silver. It does not look like goldbugs are “buying the dip” in the metals. This will encourage the banksters to pound price with impunity at COMEX. This suggests lower prices ahead.

Risk assets were mixed; both SPX and crappy debt moved higher, while crude and copper both fell. Even so, all risk items remain quite close to their recent highs. Today’s moves were very modest.

The buck did well, recovering most of yesterday’s decline. The buck is slowing working on a bullish reversal. On the weekly chart, we are seeing a swing low slowly forming. This probably isn’t helping the metals very much.

Surprisingly, bonds did well also today; the swing low prints were strong, and it does appear that bonds have put in a low, at least for now.

— JAG, look at anything below this line AT YOUR OWN RISK!!! Please sign the release form below. —

So The Bad Orange Man is slated to leave office just 7 days from now. But, of course, things just can’t end normally. Not now. So where are we? Civil war? Armed insurrection? 25th Amendment? Impeachment? Arrest & persecution upon departing office?

* A State of Emergency was declared in DC. DC Mayor Bowser said: “Don’t come to the Inauguration!” This makes it unlikely that anyone will show up. Whew. Otherwise we might be treated to a few dozen people in cars attending, tooting horns, and it would be generally supportive of that seditious “Trump Won By A Landslide” narrative.

* Pence has refused to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the Bad Orange Man.

* Pelosi’s Impeachment II is up and running; they are charging the Bad Orange Man with sedition, and 10 Eternal War Republicans [Liz Cheney, et al] have voted along with the Democrats to do so. Eric Swalwell is one of the “Impeachment Managers”; Mr Swalwell is best known for his years-long affair with a CCP “honey pot” agent. Incredibly, Mr Swalwell is also on the top-secret Intelligence Committee.

* McConnell formally rejected calls for an early start to the Senate impeachment trial. Perhaps he ran a focus group and it tested poorly. Or, maybe he did them math, and realized there would be no Republican Party if he did such a thing.

* Eternal War cheerleader Lindsey Graham observed: “Supporting the impeachment of President Trump under these circumstances will do great damage to the institutions of government and could invite further violence at a time the President is calling for calm.”

* Dershowitz said: “The case cannot come to trial in the Senate. Because the Senate has rules, and the rules would not allow the case to come to trial until, according to the majority leader, until 1 p.m. on January 20th, an hour after President Trump leaves office.”

* The Bad Orange Man gave a speech yesterday in Alamo, TX, at “The Wall.” He talked only about the success of the wall, and nothing about the election fraud.

* TWTR CEO Dorsey – after his stock dropped 12% – tweeted that banning Trump was divisive and set a dangerous precedent. This observation came comfortably after his competitor Parler was wiped off the Internet with the help of his fellow digital oligarchs at AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN. Dorsey did not say when he would permit the Bad Orange Man to speak again. Dorsey has been criticized by leaders around the world: Merkel and Macron among them. “Whoa. He could do that to me too.” I guess they’ve read Neimoller.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1349510772871766020

* Parler is not sure when it will return. They have filed suit against Amazon. What AWS did – chapter and verse is available in the lawsuit below – sure looks offensive to me.

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.wawd.294664/gov.uscourts.wawd.294664.21.0.pdf

* It is becoming progressively more clear to me that “Q” is – most likely – some sort of False Hope Operation. My guess: Q will not long survive the exit from office of the Bad Orange Man.

My guess: a deal was cut. Trump must stop talking about election fraud, and his weasely “friends” in the Senate will prevent the impeachment from taking place. This will keep the Republican Party together. The Senate voting for an Impeachment of Trump would have absolutely destroyed it. No Republican could have won an election for dog-catcher if that happened. In exchange for going along with the election fraud, Trump can run again in 2024. At age 78.

What’s happening now, is that the media is milking “the last seven days of Trump” for ratings. Fear sells. Once Trump leaves, what will they talk about? Joe Biden’s socks? No criticism of Old White Joe will be permitted by the Biden Donors. Eventually, talking breathlessly about Ex-President Trump will get old. Ratings will vanish.

While its too soon to predict the End of Days for Twitter, I predict an exodus off both TWTR and FB platforms for other places. Nobody will soon forget what happened – no sane person who invests in building a social media following will ever rely on Dorsey ever again. I’d short TWTR on the bounces. Amazon too lost big. Ripping the supports out from under a business at a critical juncture is not likely to reassure your customers. Live by the cloud, die by the cloud. Companies around the world will probably do a rethink now. If they’re smart, they will anyway.

That’s it for now. A deal was done – no near-term civil war. A quiet exit for the Bad Orange Man. That’s – I’m guessing – what the bond market and the buck are sniffing out. The banksters are the first to know these things.  Graham and McConnell are the two (Deep State) players to watch.

Don’t get me wrong – there’s a lot more to come. The Biden Donors have a plan.

But this phase, I believe, is over.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 03:43am

    #2

    davefairtex

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    “Battleground” Impeachment Poll – Its Not Popular

This is another indication that Impeachment II is just political theater targeting Pelosi’s base.  Perhaps – hmm – they are planning to hose some large number of supporters in some way, and so this is the red meat they are throwing in advance of this move?

An “Impeachment II” consolation prize?  “See we really do care about you.”

Then Boom – a big giveaway to the Biden Donors!

Its probably also to keep the threat alive on Trump’s way out the door.

—————

The survey of 800 battleground state voters “matches the actual turnout from the November 3 election” and took place on January 10th and 11th.

* 60 percent of voters view impeachment as a “waste of time and money,”

* 77 percent of all voters feel “dealing with Coronavirus” should take precedence.

* 74 percent of all voters agree that efforts by Pelosi and the Democrats to try to impeach the President after Joe Biden was sworn in would be politically motivated to prevent the President from running again, stripping his Secret Service protection, and preventing him from having a Presidential Library

* 74 percent feel that “Twitter, Facebook and Google can censor and take away the President’s right to free speech they can take away the right to free speech for any American.”

* 70 percent of voters agree that companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Amazon “have too much power and need to be regulated to protect the freedoms and privacy of Americans.”

* President Trump retains a 49 percent job approval rating (in those states)

* the “generic vote for Congress favors the Republicans over the Democrats 49%-42%.”

https://thenationalpulse.com/breaking/impeachment-tech-poll/

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 05:20am

    #3

    sand_puppy

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    Lagarde — BTC is for criminals

BTC is for criminals.  (familiar Meme reiterated by Christine Lagarde)

The former head of the IMF, … Christine Lagarde, … accuse[d] Bitcoin of being heavily embroiled in criminal activity.

“(Bitcoin) has conducted some funny business and some interesting and totally reprehensible money laundering activity,” said Lagarde.

The ECB head went on to call for Bitcoin to be regulated by financial authorities.

“There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon […] at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used,” she said.

Globalists and technocrats have long begrudged Bitcoin because it is decentralized and therefore impossible to come under the control of centralized financial institutions.  The cryptocurrency has also provided a refuge for dissidents who have been deplatformed by regular financial services and institutions over their politics.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 07:52am

    #4

    davefairtex

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    Gab: Copy of Bad Orange Man’s Twitter Account

Just in case you want to see all the “seditious” things that he said leading up to the wave-in at the Capitol.

https://gab.com/realdonaldtrump

That Gab CEO seems like a pretty smart cookie.  I wonder how many other accounts he has hoovered up in his database.  Man.  Smart guy.

I’m guessing that part of the Bad Orange Man’s (unannounced) agreement with McConnell is – no more tweeting.  But that will probably just last for the next week or so.

And then TWTR will just get clobbered, if Trump’s 80 million followers join Gab and stay there.  I mean, this could really be a huge move.  Earth-shaking.  Monumental.

Going forward, why on earth would you ever put work into an online presence on TWTR (basically creating content for them – for free) if you could just get wiped off the service for basically no reason?

I shorted TWTR in the premarket this morning.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 08:07am

    #5

    Cold Rain

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    DC Guard Build-up

Why are they continuing to increase military presence in DC?  The count is what, 15,000 now?  Up from 6, up from 2.  Reports are even greater numbers are possible/likely.  All for a quasi-virtual inauguration, probably attended by 100 people lol.  All this because of an anonymous memo about a potential armed protest?  When have we seen massive troop movement to a place because of a memo like this?  Also, I don’t recall the FBI publishing a threat like this either.  There are reports of troops in other areas of the country too, but that’s hard to verify.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 10:10am

    #6

    davefairtex

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    well

If you don’t have the popular support, you can always substitute military force, I suppose.  It seems very Venezuela to me.

Without the troops there, I agree, he’d probably only have a few hundred people in cars at the inauguration – tooting their horns in approval.  So this is one way to get a crowd.

It is definitely theater of some sort.  What kind, I don’t know.  Maybe its an attempt to say that “those Trump supporters are just this dangerous.  We need 20,000 troops to keep them from overrunning the place.”  They’ll look a bit silly when nothing happens.

Amusingly, I wonder how many of the troops voted for the Bad Orange Man.  A bunch, probably.

I’m really glad I’m not part of that elite group.  They are probably terrified at this point.  Scared of their own shadows.

The latest: they’re going to start the Impeachment after the inauguration!  Let’s remove Trump from office – after he’s out of office!

TWTR: -2.82%.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 12:01pm

    #7

    sand_puppy

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/13/2021

DaveF,

Can you explain to us non-financial types what are the implications of the 10Y bond yield rising to 1.12?

I understand that this means that the price of the 10Y is falling significantly.  Is this an inflation expectation?  What else does it imply?

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 06:31pm

    #8

    davefairtex

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    10Y & the buck

In some sense, the 10Y rate is capital voting on whether or not it thinks the US is still a safe haven.  This is combined with the dollar itself.

So the Fed can print infinite amounts of money to stop the 10Y rates from rising.  But if it does that, foreigners may well just decide to bail out on dollars.  So there is an effective limit to Fed printing.  If they printed 30 trillion dollars tomorrow, the 10Y rate might go to zero (the Fed would own all the outstanding treasury bonds), but the dollar would just crater – foreigners would flee the buck.

So its a complicated signal.  If the Fed isn’t printing, it is simpler.  We only know at end of week how much they printed this past week.

The rates jumping above 1% could be an inflationary indicator.  It could also be a lack of confidence in the buck too.  It could be both.  It does signal that there is more “native selling pressure” than the Fed is absorbing with their weekly treasury purchases.

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 08:06pm

    #9
    EddieLarry

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    PM Daily Market Commentary – 01/13/2021 – Hey what years is it?

And what is happening.  Why it is 2021 and the pandemic is ending. Hmm, what the heck happened after the end of the Spanish Flu epidemic?

  • Thu, Jan 14, 2021 - 09:15pm

    #10

    davefairtex

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    if you want to see an insurrection…

Here’s what one looks like.  This guy (John Sullivan) was interviewed by CNN post “insurrection”, saying he was just there to record the event.  He “stormed” the capitol along with the rest of the group, and filmed the shooting death of the unarmed female protester Babbit.

Some context about Mr Sullivan: a short speech, recorded in a separate event – explicitly demanding an armed revolution.  50 seconds.  For however long it stays up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBcL9whXi2w

“We out there strapped. We out there ready to burn that shit down. We got to F rip Trump out of that office right over there. We got to fucking pull him out that shit. We are about to get that motherF.”

Not all the people “storming the capitol” were Trump Insurrectionists.  How many other BLM/Antifa people were there?  We just don’t know.

Original post – more detail – h/t Tom:

https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/breaking-fbi-arrests-left-wing-anarchist-leader-john-sullivan-for-inciting-riot-in-capitol-siege/

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