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Percentage daily death rate/case increase don’t correlate

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  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 05:57am

    #1
    aineram

    aineram

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    Percentage daily death rate/case increase don’t correlate

Last night while trying to go to sleep I found myself having the urge to do some calculations. It dawned on me that over time the percentage death rate increase should correspond to the percentage case rate increase. I looked at two countries that I know are leading the way in testing- Germany and South Korea. I know you have to take the lag into consideration but over time it should be somewhat consistent? Both these countries are still able to give good care to those that need hospital care so death increase should not be down to that. Both countries consistently showed by quite a bit a higher percentage death rate increase compared to the case rate increase. This leads me to believe that even these countries are missing many cases. If I’m right the mortality rate is lower than we think. If I’m missing something I’d love to hear it? None of this of course takes away from our need to flatten the curve as hospitals are only going to get more overwhelmed.

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 10:01pm

    #2
    LarryNotGary

    LarryNotGary

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    Percentage daily death rate/case increase don’t correlate

They co-relate if you have a 15-21 day gap between infections and death

Germany and SK both seem to be doing something shady with their reporting

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