Peak Oil is Baaaack
A great report published last year by HSBC called:
Global oil supply – Will mature field declines drive the next supply crunch?
They make a good many points frequently hammered on by Chris:
Based on our supply model, we estimate that 81% of world liquids production is already in decline, excluding future redevelopments. However, on a more benign definition we estimate the figure at 64%, or 59mbd vs global supply (excluding biofuels/processing gains) of 91mbd.
The remainder of output is accounted for by 1) new conventional fields or large fields in ramp-up or plateau, 2) natural gas liquids (~13.5mbd globally, where production is often associated with long-plateau gas output, typically for LNG), tight oil (~5mbd) and biofuels (~2.3mbd).
If we assume 5-7%pa decline rates on a benign estimate of 59mbd of global post-peak output, the supply lost between 2016 and 2040 amounts to 41-48mbd. For context, this is broadly 4x the current crude oil output of OPEC’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia (c.10.5mbd). Assuming all other pre-peak production is held constant, this is the amount needed just to keep supply flat.
To provide in addition for the expected rise in global demand over the period, the additional supply needed could be closer to 55-60mbd.
They forecast a supply crunch in the 2018 time frame:
Impending supply constraints are a key factor behind our USD75/b long-term (2018e and beyond) price assumption.
I have a folder that I call "reliable documents of peak oil" and it is pretty full! This one is going in it.
When I first started reading about peak oil a lot of what I came across did not have much of a pedigree, as time has gone on, some pretty well known folks have written some pretty amazing stuff on the subject. The one thing that seems to have been changing is the timeline, It seems to be getting closer and closer!