PEAK OIL A HOAX

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  • Sat, Jan 10, 2009 - 11:47pm

    #141

    DurangoKid

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    Re: PEAK OIL IS A HOAX

[quote=Ray Hewitt]

I wouldn’t accuse them of dishonesty or challenge their data. Their problem is that they weren’t looking for abiotic oil which has a different geology and is much deeper.

[/quote]

 

Abiotic oil?  I thought the argument over this had been settled.  It’s not real.  There is no methane comming from the mantel that forms oil deposits.  Exploratory wells looking for abiotic oil have never found it.  What hydrocarbons they’ve recovered were contamination or seeps from adjacent deposits.  Even if it were real, the rate of replenishment would be infinitesimal compared to demand.  Oil is energy from sunlight captured by plankton and cooked under very specific geological conditions.  Most of it formed during two periods of ancient global warming and anoxic oceans.  It’s finite.  It’s not being replenished by some fantasy abiotic process.  Can we please move on?

  • Sun, Jan 11, 2009 - 12:06am

    #142

    Ray Hewitt

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

This is a SCIENTIFIC issue, not a linguistic or logic or political issue. 

Things are not what they appear. Science was politicized at the beginning of the space program. The IPCC is a creature of the UN.

Doomsdayers will be lucky if they don’t get what they ask for, i.e. a government "solution." They’re the same people who brought us the global depression and the global war on terror.

In fact, there are enough studies out there to convincingly show that
the warming that is happening (even denialists admit that warming is
happening) cannot adequately be accounted for by any other observed
phenomena.  

Earth has been in a warming phase for 10,000 years.The doomsdayers are playing in the fact that CO2 is coincident with warming, treating it as if it is causal. CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas and human CO2 is about 3%, natural CO2 97%.

Who benefits from this alarmism? Government. Oil supplies are best rationed by pricing in the market economy. For the foreseable future, demand is falling faster than supply.

  • Sun, Jan 11, 2009 - 01:02am

    #143

    Damnthematrix

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    Skating on Thin Ice

Skating on Thin Ice

The freeze got me on my skates, and brought the loonies out of their holes.

 

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian, 9th January 2009

I have spent the last two evenings skating. Last night we laid
lanterns out across the ice and swooped and swung and fell flat on our
faces on this silent lake in mid-Wales, for hours by moonlight. I
should have been in bed – I have a chest infection and a cold – but I
wouldn’t have missed it for anything.

For the exhilaration of this primal game was shaded with sadness:
all of us knew that this time might be our last. It is many winters
since most of the lakes in England and Wales have frozen hard enough to
support a skating party; with every year the chances of another one
recede. The fuss this country has made about the current cold snap
reminds us how rare such events have become.

My friend John Mason, who has been photographing extreme weather
events in this valley for three decades, sent me some pictures of the
“Great Blizzard” that struck 27 years today – on January 9th 1982, with
a note explaining that my home town, Machynlleth, “was inaccessible by
anything other than helicopter for over a week”. His photos show cars
stuck on the roads, surrounded by snowdrifts.

I remember that winter well. I started work at an intensive pig farm
three days before the freeze began. The feeding system set like
concrete and for two weeks we had to run two buckets of feed a day to
each of the 1400 pigs. I would get home at seven and fall asleep in the
shower. By the time the system thawed, we were wading through a sea of
pigshit, as there had been no time to muck the units out. Some of the
sows in the farrowing sheds had died of cold and blown up like barrage
balloons. As the lowest farmhand, I had to climb over them, cut my way
into the body cavity and burst them, then dig out the remains with a
shovel. I’m sure there are worse jobs, but they don’t immediately come
to mind.

On one night during that winter I was tobogganing with a group of
friends on a hill outside our village in south Oxfordshire. Dragging my
sledge back to the top, I saw someone pointing, open-mouthed, at the
horizon. Great pillars of white light were shimmering up to the zenith
of the sky, swinging like crazy searchlights then suddenly collapsing.
Our theories ranged from military testing to alien invasion. Several
years later I read that the northern lights had been recorded that
night in southern Oxfordshire for the first time in a century.

The weather of the past few weeks would have been unexceptional in
the early 1980s. Today it is being cited as definitive proof that
manmade climate change can’t be happening. There’s a splendid example
of such blithering idiocy here: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_warner/blog/2009/01/07/global_warming_al_gores_convenient_untruth_freezes_over.
Gerald Warner, writing in the Telegraph, contends that the cold snap
lends more support to the idea of a new ice age than to global warming
theory. Were he to apply this reasoning consistently, he would have to
write another blog on Sunday showing that, due to the unseasonably warm
temperatures the Met Office forecasts for the UK this weekend, global
warming is definitely happening. And the following week, if there’s
another cold snap, he should predict a new ice age again.

Faced with a choice between global temperature records covering more
than a century, or three weeks of cooling in one small corner of the
planet, Mr Warner chooses the second dataset to identify long-running
global trends. Though he has evidently never read or never understood a
peer-reviewed paper on this subject in his entire crabbed life, he then
goes on to dismiss this whole canon of science as nonsense. Is there
any other subject on which journalists can make such magnificent idiots
of themselves and still keep their jobs?

When heatwaves strike, climate scientists and environmentalists
tend towards caution, explaining that though such events may be
consistent with predictions they cannot be used as proof that climate
change is taking place: only the long-running global trend is a
reliable guide. If anyone is foolish enough to present a heatwave as
clear evidence of manmade climate change, the deniers jump all over
them. The same critics then use every snow flurry or frozen puddle as
evidence of the collapse of global warming theory.

The thought that I might never skate outdoors again feels like a
bereavement. I pray for another cold snap, even though I know it will
bring all the nincompoops in Britain out of their holes, yapping about
a new ice age.

http://www.monbiot.com

  • Sun, Jan 11, 2009 - 01:04am

    #144

    EndGamePlayer

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX . . maybe and maybe not. . .

Hi Ray & All-

My understanding is – Oil Peaked in the U.S. in the 70s and they let the well "replenish" (letting the oil settle through the bedrock) for 15 – 20 years. I understand the North Sea ocean drills are also "sitting" for replenishing and this is where a large portion of Western Europe got gas/oil . . and they are now experiencing a long juggling act to fill a supply.

In the news this week – Venezuala has been reducing imports and Mexico Peaked some where around 2004’ish. These are US sources. Another is Canada, and of course, Saudi oil.

This is a problem for us (in the US) – since we import 2/3rd of our gas/oil. They need to the deeper drilling and in more dangerous conditions as well as  the tapping tar sands. Add the growing population to the demand for energy world-wide.

So Peak Oil is real . .  and there is plenty of oil but they have to drill deeper and side-ways or let it sit for years – while the demand continues to increase.

The Climate Change is an even more complex situation. . . not time to get into it all now but as I see it – most arguements as being correct and yet miss the point.

 

  • Sun, Jan 11, 2009 - 01:48am

    #145
    castlewp

    castlewp

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

I understand that there is a very passionate and heartfelt argument on both sides to this "climate Change" topic. And while I consider myself agnostic to the issue because of the complexity and disinformation on both sides, I believe that many in this debate have blinders on in that they are being used as pawns to a much bigger game.

This game has been rigged and TPTB have made this among many other issues a huge distraction that has pitted an unwinnable argument against each other.  Meanwhile nothing will be done about it except to impose taxes on every citizen and the animals they own who flatulates.  This debate is an exercise in futility and the only thing we know for sure about Climate Change is that big funded committees will keep going long after their use-by date.  Here’s the campaign slogan for this kind of government "Vote for us, we confuse cause and effect, mix up issues, and solve problems by tackling something else instead!"  Good policies need good science.  Everything else is random government.

As far as I am concerned (IMO) we are quickly breaking down as a country and a world.  And the change in the climate (which there always is naturally) is the least of our worries and (IMO) out of our control.  

There is data on both sides of this theory that is very compelling and interesting, but there will be few people who actually change sides.  It is an argument culdesac that goes no where.

We should be more passionate and heartfelt (again IMO) about how this controlled demolition of our economy is occurring and how to stop it.  There is a mountain of irrefutable evidence that I suppose we agree on.

 

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2009 - 04:42am

    #146
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

Has anyone read Lindsey William’s book The Energy Non-Crisis? 

Here is his lecture: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2009 - 06:12pm

    #147
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

[quote=castlewp]

I understand that there is a very passionate and heartfelt argument on both sides to this "climate Change" topic. And while I consider myself agnostic to the issue because of the complexity and disinformation on both sides, I believe that many in this debate have blinders on in that they are being used as pawns to a much bigger game.

This game has been rigged and TPTB have made this among many other issues a huge distraction that has pitted an unwinnable argument against each other.  Meanwhile nothing will be done about it except to impose taxes on every citizen and the animals they own who flatulates.  This debate is an exercise in futility and the only thing we know for sure about Climate Change is that big funded committees will keep going long after their use-by date.  Here’s the campaign slogan for this kind of government "Vote for us, we confuse cause and effect, mix up issues, and solve problems by tackling something else instead!"  Good policies need good science.  Everything else is random government.

As far as I am concerned (IMO) we are quickly breaking down as a country and a world.  And the change in the climate (which there always is naturally) is the least of our worries and (IMO) out of our control.  

There is data on both sides of this theory that is very compelling and interesting, but there will be few people who actually change sides.  It is an argument culdesac that goes no where.

We should be more passionate and heartfelt (again IMO) about how this controlled demolition of our economy is occurring and how to stop it.  There is a mountain of irrefutable evidence that I suppose we agree on.

 

[/quote]

In your first paragraph you state that

"[you] consider [yourself] agnostic to the issue because of the complexity and disinformation on both sides"

and

"many…are being used as pawns to a much bigger game".

How can you reconcile these two contradictory statements?

Your last paragraph implies that we’ll have an economy.  There can only be an economy if there are people.  There are only people if they have a chance to live.  If the world is snuffed out, where we all have to where gas masks because we live in a world of smog and dying resources, then we’ll be smoked out.  And even IF there is an economy that might be the last things on our minds.  Breathing fresh air will take priority hence the "AGW" proponents who want to minimize CO2 emissions.  Even if there is no "causal link" as so many profess, minimizing CO2 will minimize the pollutions that seems unbearable in cities like Beijing.  This pollution isn’t stagnant.  It travels to the U.S. believe-it-or-not.

These pictures (below) may not have ANYTHING to do with AGW!  But it does show that the smog is created by humans!!  Regardless of AGW– is this how you want to live????

Stop the pollution before it stops YOU.

  • Sat, Mar 21, 2009 - 02:02am

    #148
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

If we apply Noam Chomsky’s style of analysis to the Peak Oil issue, we discover some interesting things about oil, information, and the behavior of the propaganda system.  For starters, the really odd thing about oil production is that it is not a state secret in the US.  The information is there and it’s pretty good.  It has to be.  It’s the same information the elites are using to formulate all manor of policies and plans.  Just look where the US has its military engaged in actual shooting wars.  It’s completely consistent with Afghanistan being a future conduit for oil and gas out of the region.  Iraq is one of the few countries that can actually increase its oil production.  Is that not consistent with the US invasion and rewriting of Iraq’s contract law regarding foreign oil development?  And there’s the biggest and most powerful player in the region, namely, Iran.  Iran sits on a huge reserve of natural gas.  It’s oil is in decline and has been for decades.  Because it is one of the stronger players in the region and won’t kowtow to the Washington consensus, it is a threat and is being treated as such.

Notice also how the current military adventures in the oil rich regions of the Earth dovetail with the explicit declaration that the American lifestyle is not negotiable.  Parenthetically, one might ask just which class of Americans have a nonnegotiable lifestyle.  Be that as it may, it should be obvious that the elites know what is happening in the hydrocarbon energy sector and they plan to be the last man standing in the contest for oil.

So, we live in an information environment where there is a lot of good data out there and we are more or less free to dig it up and interpret it.  At first glance you might think this would undermine the propaganda system.  Not so.  In the US the propaganda system functions mainly by distraction and emphasis.  We have a lot of distractions here.  There is professional sports, celebrity worship, fashion, religion, lurid fascination with crime, consumerism, infotainment.  The so-called news outlets provide the proper emphasis on policy, car crashes, exaggerated danger, celebrity gossip, sports.  The information is out there but it presents no real threat because so many people aren’t looking at it and the few that do often don’t have the background or proper context to interpret it.  And it’s not just the uneducated that fall prey to this.  I’ve met many degreed engineers and other professionals who don’t have a clue about anything outside their career field.  Never underestimate the power of selectively presenting factual information without a proper context.

As far as I can tell from the technical material I’ve read, Peak Oil is real.  Most people are distracted by the media blitz and don’t know about it.  Of the remaining, the media emphasis toward the up and coming alternative fuels for their SUV’s keeps them from understanding the true scope and consequences of Peak Oil.  The small minority of people who do "get it" are pretty much marginalized.  We’re the "conspiracy nuts" and "bloggers" who spoil the conversation at cocktail parties and never get invited back.

Peak Oil is gradually gaining traction in the media.  It’s a slow process.  It’s possible that Peak Oil may be relegated to an irrelevant media trend like Princess Di or Mel Gibson’s Mad Max movies.  Peak Oil may disappear from the news, but it’s fundamental importance will keep it resurfacing from time to time.  The pundits will look for reasons for the economy not recovering as was expected.  The answers will surface gradually.  It’s about energy and the biggest source of energy humans have ever known.  Right on its heels will be the same old tactics of distraction and emphasis trying to hide the unhideable.  The strategy will be the same, too.  Keep the unwashed hordes away from any sort of policy formation.  Democracy is dangerous to the interests of the elites that want to control the last days of the Oil Age.

  • Sat, Mar 21, 2009 - 01:39pm

    #149
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: PEAK OIL A HOAX

I suggest everyone listen to the March 17 "Reality Check" interview of Matt Simmons by Richard Loomis.  I don’t think anyone has a better handle on PO than Simmons.  Toward the end of the interview he suggests that we start living in a manner very similar to what is the theme of this website.

http://financialsense.com/

  • Mon, Dec 28, 2009 - 08:41pm

    #150
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    take a look at Australian leadership…

New Liberal leader Tony Abbott did not know what peak oil is

Does he know it now?

In July 2008, at the Writer’s Festival http://www.themonthly.com.au/taxonomy/term/176?page=1

Hardly noticed at the time, this is the video of the day in crikey http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/02/peak-oil after Tony Abbott has now become new leader of the opposition. Here is a transcript of an excerpt:

newliberalleadertonyabbott_doesnt_konw_peak_oil  

Q: “Does the Liberal Party have a policy on peak oil?”

Tony Abbott:  “We like it to be cheaper, …. I suppose… look, look,….we like to see competition at every level in the oil industry both at the production level, the distribution level and the supply level and we think that that will give us the best possible price. ”

Q: “I’d like to ask if Tony Abbott understood the question about peak oil. Are you familiar with the concept of peak oil?”

Tony Abbott: “It’s not a term I have heard. Perhaps Robert has heard about peak oil. He is expert on arcane concepts…”

Robert Manne: “It’s a concept concerned with the point at which oil production is beginning to decline … where the exploration and production…. we realize we are over a point  and the production begins to decline. It’s actually an incredible complex notion. It’s one I am not  claiming to be an expert on. But I know it’s absolutely essential for the debate about energy”

Tony Abbott: “Ok, but the issue with oil is … supply is very much a  function of price and at a higher price all sort of things suddenly become possible. A whole lot of uneconomic deposits become accessible, turning all sorts of other things into oil become feasible. So this idea there is some fixed point, some fixed finitude I just find implausible.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCiHFyLIfu8

Read this again: “we like oil to be cheaper….at higher oil prices additional oil becomes available”.  So much for the logic of these arguments.

fig_1d_2009_08_nymex

So let’s have a look at what sorts of things happen when oil prices go up.

Up to around mid 2005, everything is fine, prices go up, production goes up. But then peak oil hits somewhere above 74 mb/d, prices go up, but production goes even down slightly. Then prices go down and production with it. Then prices skyrocket, Saudi Arabia pumps at maximum spare capacity and then the whole system crashes. There is clearly a singularity which means chaos for the economy. Right, “all sorts of things become suddenly possible”. Lehman Brothers and the rest of it. So much for the function supply=f(price). More oil price shocks will follow http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=430 , if demand in China takes off http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=525

And of course there is a delay between oil price signal, oil exploration and production, which makes it all so complex as Robert Manne is rightly saying.

And what happens with those previously uneconomic deposits? They stay in the ground because the oil price has come down as a result of the recession which was triggered by the financial crisis which in turn was triggered by peak oil.

Question: So what should be the oil price to unlock those deposits and to make other things turn miraculously into oil?

$100 a barrel?  $ 120? Certainly not $ 147 because then the economy would tank again.

Here is a case in point:

Griffin oil JV stops production

Resources: 27-October-09 by Rebecca Lawson

Japan’s Inpex Corporation says production will cease this month at its Griffin oil joint venture off the coast of Western Australia, 15 years after operations first started.

The Griffin operation, which includes the Scindian and Chinook oil fields, was the first Australian project Inpex has been participated in from exploration stage.

In a statement, Inpex said that after 15 years of production, the oil rate had reduced from 80,000 barrels a day to less than 4,000 barrels a day due to natural depletion.

“Considering the level of production and associated costs, the Joint Venture decided to cease the production this month prior to the commencement of the cyclone season,” Inpex said.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/76239/Griffin-oil-JV-stops-production/dba

griffin_oil_field Let’s have a look at the Griffin oil reserve history and cumulative production. Since 2000, P90 reserves have been in the order of 1-2 years production. In other words reserve growth was always just 1-2 years ahead of production. From hand into mouth. In 2008, high oil prices apparently led to a re-assessment in reserves, upwards. Which may have promptly been canceled with lower oil prices.  Cumulative production went indeed horizontal. But now oil prices are down and production has stopped – for good – because this is offshore and the platform is too costly to maintain.

Lot, lots more …

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