Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

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  • Wed, Jan 06, 2010 - 02:21am

    #11
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

ao:

If things go bad will it be easy to unload Maples here?  If so, I’ll trade my eagles in.  If 99.5 is the barometer why not have Buffalos that are recognized here but would be transportable to Canada?  I appreciate your comment on offshore accounts, I didn’t think of Canada like I would Switzerland or Bahamas, but your point is well taken.  There are so many scenarios to consider depending on the degree of collapse.  If its complete breakdown, PM’s wont be much help until some order is restored, goods will be more important, but if it’s  partial silver and gold will stil retain value.  I guess there will be a black market either way.

 

thanks

 

  • Wed, Jan 06, 2010 - 02:47am

    #12
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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

kcol,

I don’t think you’d have any problems unloading maple leaves here if TSHTF.  However, my sense is that eagles may be treated more favorably here by the authorities given the Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985 and the Liberty Coin Act of 1985.  Also, you can hold them in IRAs while you can’t hold maple leaves or other foreign coins, if I’m not mistaken.  That fact could result in an increase in their demand if and when folks might scramble for precious metals IRAs when paper assets start heading south. 

I think the same situation holds true for maple leaves in Canada.  While buffaloes qualify in terms of pre-requisite purity and should be OK, they’re still not Canadian.  The Canadian government can be very arbitrary (just like ours) and turn at the drop of the hat.  Witness the Canadian energy trust debacle for American investors … I know, I got burned a bit in that one.  Also, the trend is returning to protectionism so there may be some prejudice against non-Canadian coins on that account.

In the case of a full scale collapse, I think order of priority for tangibles will be cigarettes and whiskey first (the addicts will have to satisfy their need), guns and ammo second (guns and ammo can allow the criminals to obtain anything else they want and the law abiding to protect everything they have and, in rural areas, to hunt), food and other essentials third, precious metals fourth, and so on down the list.  That’s just my opinion.  

  • Thu, Jan 07, 2010 - 08:33pm

    #13
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

[quote=JAG]

Personally, if your asking me for a “safe-haven” right now, the USD looks like the best bet in the short-term, from a technical perspective of the currency markets. Eventually, the current rally in the dollar will run its course, and it will be time to move out of the dollar into a commodity-based currency like CAD or AUD.

[/quote]

Thanks JAG,

I agree, however, since the dollar is on a rally right now….my personal opinion is NOW is the time to buy foreign currency, if that is in your plans.  You get more foreign dollars for your money when the dollar is index is higher. 

If you hold dollars too long,  you will lose the buying power of getting the better exchange rate when the dollar starts to fall again.

For example:  Use  $5,000 US dollars now, while the dollar is “rally-ing” and get $5003 Australian dollars with that. 

If you wait until the dollar starts falling again…you won’t get the $5003 AUD back with your $5,000…more likely much less.

Hope I’m not too confusingUndecided

Buy when the dollar is in a rally, because it won’t last long..  Just my 2 cents 🙂

 

 

 

 

  • Sat, Jan 09, 2010 - 04:08pm

    #14
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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

where do you buy foriegn currencies?

  • Sat, Jan 09, 2010 - 04:15pm

    #15
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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

[quote=kcol]

where do you buy foriegn currencies?

[/quote]You can do it on Forex, but “if” it all goes (brokerages tank) then good luck. Schwab called me 2 days before I think it was Revco went chapter 11 and I just got our cash out in time.

It happens.

I think if I were cold on gold and wanted to hold other dollars I’d conclude that a better way would might likely be to hold the currency. Most international airports have exchange windows (banks) I’m sure all banks can do it was well, there is of course a fee.

Of course “if” the banks go I don’t know what good paper in another currency will do one. We now have about 576 banks on the troubled list and I myself have read that over 2,000 banks should be on that list.

  • Sat, Jan 09, 2010 - 04:53pm

    #16
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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

[quote=Mom-2-3-kids]

I agree, however, since the dollar is on a rally right now….my personal opinion is NOW is the time to buy foreign currency, if that is in your plans.  You get more foreign dollars for your money when the dollar is index is higher. 

[/quote]

I think we might differ in our expectations for the dollar rally. I’m looking for sentiment to be very bullish on the dollar before I scale out of it. I know many believe that day will never come, but I’ll wait for it. Patience, in this market in particular, will be rewarded. A flight to the safety-de jour will be punished, as always.

  • Sat, Jan 09, 2010 - 06:32pm

    #17
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    Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

 

I would put any significant amount of cash in US Treasury bills, or mutual funds that hold them exclusively (some have checkwriting features).

In a  truly global scare,   commerce and the general population  would probably and increasingly  refuse to accept  paper notes for payment, like in the US civil war.   Until some order is restored we will readily  trust gold, or at least direct obligations of the US Treasury ,  to facilitate commerce. After all we must still go to the grocer and buy food and necessities,   and that includes people in government.

Legal tender laws would be increasingly hard to enforce once  a significant portion of the economy starts functioning without federal reserve notes.

USD CHF
USD/CHF rose during the session on Monday as the markets bounced in the Dollar’s favor. The 0.91 level acted as support, and as a result we saw traders step in at that area. The area looks supportive all the way down to 0.90 or so, and we like buying as long as we can stay above that level, and show any signs of strength or support.

  • Mon, Feb 06, 2012 - 06:32am

    #19
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    EUR CHF Updates

EUR/CHF has so far proven successful as the pair has not only remained above 1.20, but has yet to even test it.Talks of the huge EUR/CHF demand from SNB – has filtered to demand, possibly in AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY as SNB diversify its reserves linked to the EUR/CHF "unlimited foreign currencies buying" pledge.EUR/CHF hit 4-month lows around 1.2025, its lowest levels since Sep 15 1.2015 – less than 10-days after then SNB President Philipp Hildebrand (former hedge fund manager). EUR CHF Updates (almost) inevitably into the intervention area, according to UBS analysts."Giving that EURCHF approaches the crucial line so slowly, almost sneaking, we see little danger that the SNB is caught off guard", says UBS team. 

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