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Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

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  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 06:05pm

    #1
    gbell12

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

In Australia, we’ve performed 261,000 COV-19 tests, but only have 4,976 cases. This is a tiny 1.9% rate of positive test results, which seems odd because I don’t think the testing is widespread or precautionary yet.

I think they’re only testing suspected cases – people who are exhibiting symptoms or have had contact with those exhibiting symptoms. So maybe we’re having a hell of flu season already (autumn here)?

I’m wondering if anybody has any ideas what this means.

  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 08:57pm

    #2
    susanmf

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

I wonder if they have done multiple tests on individuals, as isn’t there a fair bit of false negatives?? depending on how well the test is conducted?

But not really sure.  Do you have access to the flu-tracker data?  Which isn’t large numbers but there does seem to be some flu activity, but not being routinely tested to determine what type of viral infections.

  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 09:48pm

    #3
    dsouth

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

They are only testing here if you’ve been in contact with someone confirmed, are returning from overseas or have unexplained pneumonia. There’s no effort to test beyond that currently.

  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 09:54pm

    #4
    jmone

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

It’s early days for us in Oz.  Australian are only just starting to get half serious about isolation.  We only a week or so behind the US/UK and three weeks behind Italy.  Lets hope we used this extra time to have both prepared and also to change the curve.  I doubt the latter (and if so we will be under prepared as well).

  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 10:10pm

    #5
    jmone

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    Reply To: Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

The best exponential analogy I can think of is that we are all in a very slow moving train that is going down an increasing slope that then goes off the end of a cliff.

– The first few carriages are already over the cliff.

– Australia is several carriages back, just one or two carriages behind the US.  Initially it feels fine, a bit of a slope but nothing too bad.   Some ruckus towards the front of the train but that does not affect us in our carriage.

– As we get closer to the edge, the slope gets a bit worse and we now see a few of the conductors running around doing stuff and telling us this is going to be bad but not to panic, it’s all under control… passengers are starting to get an uneasiness feeling but… everything still feels fine and anyway, “we are different and will avoid the worst of this”.

Wait till the first wheels go over the edge and the pace really picks up.

  • Thu, Apr 02, 2020 - 03:19pm

    #6
    gbell12

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

That has nothing to do with what topic I’m attempting to start. The topic is the exceedingly small positive test results in a population of suspected sick people – not the population at large.

  • Sat, Apr 04, 2020 - 12:52am

    #7
    LarryNotGary

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

Australia has an extremely limited number of tests available. Overseas some people have needed 5 tests before one came back positive. I doubt Australians are doing multiple tests per person, as a thought

  • Mon, Apr 06, 2020 - 01:07am

    #8
    gbell12

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

Exactly. Focused testing, yet a 1.9% hit rate.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

  • Mon, Apr 06, 2020 - 04:01am

    #9

    davefairtex

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    Only 1.9% positive COV-19 test results in Australia?

When the test isn’t reliable, supposedly you can do a CT scan to look for the characteristic signs of damage to the lungs.  This is what they did in Wuhan, IIRC.

 

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