Omicron Data Update
Below are four charts relating to the Omicron Variant. The statistics come from the World Health Organization Website. They all relate to South Africa where the Omicron variant started.
I had posted data and charts last week. The charts have now been updated (with one added) through the week of December 13th. As before, the first chart shows the increase in number of weekly “Cases” (Gray Colored Bar) contrasted with increase in weekly “Deaths.”(Red Colored Bar). As you can see the since November 15th the number of Cases have increased exponentially. (Gray Colored Bar). The Red Colored Bar indicating Deaths is just to the right of the Gray Colored Bar for cases. As with my first post on this, if you can’t see the Red Colored bar, don’t worry. The number of Deaths is almost invisible on the graphs since they have stayed relatively flat. If you look very hard you can possibly see a very small red smidge to the right of the Gray Colored Bar. That red smidge represents deaths. They are virtually non-existent.
To show the relationship of deaths to infections, I added three more charts. The chart labeled “Recapitulated Deaths” takes the deaths from the first chart and displays them without reference to the the huge number of increasing infections. Looking at the first chart, you can see infections going up exponentially. Looking at the second chart you can see that the deaths do not go up exponentially, but rather seem bear little relationship to the gigantic increase in infections.
To make graphically clear the low the ratio deaths to infections in the Omicron Variant I did a third graph comparing the “Case Trend line” with the “Death Trend line.” The Case Trend line is in red, the Death Trend line is in purple.
The Case trend (Red line) are clearly increasing. But the Deaths (purple line) shows no increase at all.
Finally, with more data I have calculated the case fatality ratio. That ratio is figured by compared cases to those deaths occurring two weeks later (two weeks being the time generally necessary for the disease to run a fatal course). The case fatality rates for the first three weeks are:
4.97 for the week of 11/15/2021,
.52 for the week of 11/22/2021
And, finally, for the week of 11/29/2021 the case fatality rate is .37.
The last chart shows the CFR Trend line.
I am assuming that the continuing decline in case fatality rates over the three weeks is, in part, represented by the displacement of the Delta variant by the apparently less dangerous Omicron variant.
The last Case/Fatality ratio works out to about 1 death in 300 cases. The Infection/Fatality ratio would necessarily be lower, but it would just be a guess as to how much lower.
Don’t take my word for all this. Go to the WHO website for South Africa and see for yourself.
In any event, if this trend continues, the Omicron variant may end the pandemic. Omicron seems to be a highly infectious but relatively mild variant. Once it spreads through the population it will broadly distribute natural immunity. That should end the pandemic.
If these trends continue Public Health authorities should consider:
1) Ending travel restrictions throughout the world, to enable this opportunity to end the pandemic to “play out.”
2) Halting all mass vaccination campaigns so as to end adverse events.
As before, I under no illusions about this. There are powerful people who do not want this pandemic to end. They want it to continue.
Finally, some caveats about the apparently decreasing Case/fatality ratio. Remember that these numbers come out of South Africa. It is now summer in South Africa and the Vitamin D levels of South Africans would probably be higher than those of Europeans or Americans. Next, remember there is a very low vaccination rate in South Africa. Since South Africa has a low vaccination rate the potential problems of original antigenic sin and antibody dependent enhancement would be much less. But if one or both of those problems arise in Europe or America, Omicron could ravage the vaccinated population. It could happen. I hope not. I want the pandemic to end. But unfortunately, there is already evidence that the vaccinated are more vulnerable to infection than the unvaccinated.
Two other facts about South Africa (picked up from a substack and not verified)
- They have had a higher case fatality rate than other African nations. Same as Canada
- The seroprevalence (sp?) of covid in the general population is really high. (ie vast majority of them have had covid.
The Phylogenetic Tree. The spontaneous emergence of a VERY different virus suggests a non-spontaneous, non-natural process.
An indicator of mild severity is the “discharged from the ICU in <7 days metric.”
The analysis el gato malo uses here is a bit complex. But the trend seems right to me. The vaccinated do worse with omicron than the unvaxxed.
This argues for:
- The vaccine effectiveness against this strain is bad.
- The Original Antigenic Sin mechanism is in play.
Once the immune system is targeted on the original strain by the vaccine, its ability to target newer strains is impaired. Original Antigenic Sin and Dengue.
small horses of 200# need 8 notches each day for 5 days.
Been a while. I stay in Northeast Scotland, near St Andrews. The following is anecdotal and as yet there is insufficient data to back up my claims – so take this with what ever pinch you like. My partner and I, and half the village that we inhabit ( pop. 7500 ) have had O, has it been verified? NO. Symptoms? as generally reported, moderate to heavy cold , although I did experience some alimentary discomfort. ( Stock up on TP and ice ) This my friends is the sad part, NO ONE is sick, NO ONE is dying, EVERYONE wants a positive LFT so they can shit faced . There is absolutely no threat here, its complete Jackson Pollocks. ( Top tip, if you get O put your TP in the fridge.)
Thanks for starting this thread, Mike. Gotta be armed with good data for the debates. Omicron looks like a fine opportunity to either end this, or at least have TPTB be revealed as unconcerned about any pandemic and merely using it as a smoke screen for the power grab…