Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

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  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 02:28pm


    Jim H

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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

Just like people fail to intuitively grasp the consequences of exponential growth, most people also fail at weighing evidence in support (or not) of a hypothesis.  Our entire Team Reality hypothesis regarding SARS-CoV2 boils down to just two points really;

1)  The mRNA vaccines are not safe, and not effective.

2)  Early treatments along with (immune system) terrain building work very well.

Here today we have a new data point to add to the “not safe” claim evidence.  You may have seen the story about the Indiana life insurance statistics for deaths in younger cohorts.  Our friend and math guy Igor Chudov did some due diligence in his Substack blog, and he adds some math detail that I had not seen elsewhere;


Speaking of a video clip that is embedded in the post, Igor says this;

Watch it from 21:00 seconds. This Scott Davison is NOT at all an antivaxer and he, in fact, starts his speech by mentioning that he will require all his employees to be vaxxed. But then he opens his mouth and says what Dr Malone is quoting — that deaths are unbelievably elevated. It is a “twelve sigma” increase in deaths according to him. (he said that 10% is three sigma and 40% is therefore 12 sigma event).

While the difference between, say, a 10-sigma event, and a 12-sigma event starts to lose meaning when we look at how rare each of these is predicted to be, for some context I can point readers to the fact that the discovery of the Higgs Boson was predicated on a 5-sigma signal in the data coming from the CERN large hadron collider;


So here then we have another data point, supportive of other all-cause-mortality data points we have seen, suggesting that something is amiss in 2021 that was not caused by Covid-19 itself (since that would have shown up in 2020).  Furthermore, Igor tells us;

You will see that this excess mortality after the winter wave only started in April, strangely coinciding with vaccine rollout for this age group.

That’s even more specific.  It adds gravity to the data… to the evidence.

We live in a world where many people form their opinions based on how many times they hear a “fact” transmitted to then via various filtered, biased media vectors.  Science doesn’t work that way though – rather it works the way we see illustrated in the Higgs Boson story, with anomalous data fitting to a hypothesis.

In the Higgs story we had a 5-sigma signal at a particular energy level that fit the energy level hypothesized.  That’s it.  One piece of data, at 5-sigma.  That was enough to call its discovery and award the Nobel prize in 2013.  Granted, this was an immense undertaking, with teams of physicists all over the world collaborating on data coming from two different detectors – one of which, a prof. at Columbia, was a fellow parent and friend in the community where my kids went to High School.  I was following the story in real time with great interest.

But again, how much evidence is enough to call a hypothesis true?  Is the vaccine safe or is it not?  Which statement is true?  I tend to think of evidence in stacks.. with each layer having some sense of independence from the others.  In the lingo of multivariate statistics, these are correlating data spread out in n-dimensional space.  The more independent and correlating layers, the more incontrovertible is the evidence.

What follows then is a non-exhaustive review of the layers in this evidence stack:

1)  Upon closer inspection of their tissues, it becomes apparent that > 90% of deaths proximate with vaccination likely ARE due to vaccination;


2)  Steve Kirsch has now outlined nine different means of calculating US vaccine deaths that all point to very large numbers, i.e. > 150K deaths;


3)  VAERS is signaling like crazy;


4)  Anecdotal damage and death reports.  How many anecdotal reports does it take before they become “data” in their own right?  How about one list with > 7300 reports?

5)  The mRNA vaccines are so wonderful they have an entirely new syndrome named after them!  That would be Vaccine-induced Immune Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia, otherwise known as VITT.


SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine–Induced Immune Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia

6)  The recent conference abstract that showed the results of PULS blood test imputed (5-year) heart attack risk rising from an average of 11% –> 25% post double jab, across a population of 566 cardiology practice patients.


7)  Those most cardio-stressed of athletes with the highest dose/weight ratios, the soccer players… yeah.. that signal;


8)  The myocarditis signal alone is both incontrovertible, and should have been enough already to shut down the entire world-wide mRNA experiment;


9)  Would it surprise anyone that, within VAERS, the number of reported AE’s tends to have a strong correlation to the number of injections given in that State?  Obvious you say?  If these were not real, then why else would the data look so real in this sense?


10) All cause mortality signals… different versions of the (life insurance) signal that started this rant;

11)  Rapid progression of cancers and latent viral infections after vaccination;


Wow.. that’s a lot of independent but correlating data.. and it barely scratches the surface of available data.  Should we win a Nobel prize for stacking all of this on top of the 12-sigma Indiana life insurance data signal to prove that the mRNA vaccines are dangerous?  Don’t hold your breath waiting for it.

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 03:01pm



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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

the video is hilarious.

“we must vaccinate”

“the number of people dying is not attributable to covid”

“we must vaccinate”


  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 03:07pm

    Mike from Jersey

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    Reply To: Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

I looked at the video of Insurance Industry forum and, especially the video of Scott Davison.

The amazing thing is that none of these people realize the significance of what they are saying. They assume that the “excess deaths” that they are seeing are unreported Covid deaths. They assume that – for those who have died – the death certificates are “wrong as to the cause of death” since they do not list Covid 19 as the cause of death. They assume that this massive increase in deaths must be Covid related deaths even though the records that they are reviewing don’t say that. And they have no idea that hospitals are financially incentivized to report cases and deaths as covid related – even if they are not. And that fact, in turn, means that the number of actual Covid deaths is probably overstated, rather than understated as these people assume.

And, even worse, based upon all their groundless assumptions, they push for more – rather than less – vaccinations to deal with the problem.

And these people give all appearances of being reasonably intelligent.

The extent of the brainwashing is incredible.

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 03:15pm



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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

on a related note. i had posted this on a “friend’s?” fb page who had posted encouraging people to get shot and wear masks. what i posted was the vaers data that showed over 20,000 people dead from the shots and well over 1 million adverse events as we all know this is grossly underreported.  i also suggested alternate means of protecting oneself including vit d , vit c, elderberry, saline nasal spray, listerine with essential oils and of course ivermectin. what follows is her response

“Don’t use Listerine bc it wipes out bacteria useful for processing your nourishment. There are contraindications for taking sambu/elderberry syrup in cases of covid too.
Your data on vaccines is tainted. Rather than research on the (biased/misinformed) web, check what peer reviewed science is saying. Everyone I know who is anti-vax on just covid ( that is, they and their kids have all the shots for measles, mumps, etc) and who would gladly take chemo for cancer are absolutely full of it as far as I’m concerned. If you don’t want to vax, please stay home and stop passing this plague around. Full stop.
Go preach on your page. I’m sticking with science. BTW, the climate crisis is also real.”

all are welcome to analyze that response. for me of note is a complete lack of data. a call to science and peer reviewed studies which oddly did not get provided. (surgisphere comes to mind). the raw emotionalism is front and center. the classic liberal tactics of logical fallacy and straw man arguments are front and center and shifting the subject to something extraneous like climate change. shockingly a mention of trump was absent.

i have not data to support what i think this represents just a gut feeling and observation of the above video and scanning social media like facebook.

i think it represents the majority of amerikaans .

there is very little effort at sense making


  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 03:26pm

    Primary Care_MD

    Primary Care_MD

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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

Jim, you are absolutely correct! This is so important, everyone needs to see this, and keep it front and center in their thoughts at all times. How can we preserve (lock in) this post / topic (keep it at the top), so it is always visible when anyone logs in to Peak Prosperity?  I don’t want it to get buried by the latest insanity from DC, MSM.  Repetition! Expand on it. Also, is there a way that PP members can “sign on”, meaning we give our full endorsement? Awesome job!

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 03:49pm   (Reply to #3)



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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

“The extent of the brainwashing is incredible”.

And frightening! How can so many ostensibly intelligent men come to such obviously erroneous conclusions? If it were not for this place and a few others, I’d have to conclude that “I” am the insane one. When I watch these guys I have to wonder just WHAT would wake them up? What data would suffice? A  close family member suffering a vaccine injury? Not necessarily. Too many stories of people who’ve been injured going back for more. Maybe a full confession on TV by Fauci admitting “I lied to all you suckers, ha, ha”. But maybe not even that. The hypnotized 30% seem to need this “pandemic” desperately. Some folks think the tide is turning and that reason is starting to prevail. But then I hear these guys, apparently sincerely believing that the only way out is more vaccination? If the Supreme Court upholds the mandates we’re done……

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 04:07pm

    Mael Duin

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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence

Great stuff Jim. I will bookmark this page in case I see an opportunity to win over a mind one of these days but it seems we all already know and the rest want to be ostriches.


Here is a very crude anecdotal experience of mine with recent covid infections.


A friend, double-jabbed, fell ill on 27th December and tested for positive for covid. Main troubling symptom on day one was an intense fever.

Having been to parties with him on Christmas Eve and Boxing Day he messaged me to let me know he had covid and so it might have spread.

On 29th December, me, unvaccinated but regularly supplementing with Vit D, Vit C, Zinc, Quercitin, comes down with a really bad fever the likes of which I’ve not had in over 10 years. I went from shivering uncontrollably to sweating profusely, suffering hardly any sleep and having terrible body aches and complete weakness. If Omicron is mild, it couldn’t be this, I thought to myself.


I struggled through a day in that condition, continuing the supplements but adding in 6mg of Melatonin and 50mg Niacin and I started to improve after one day. I felt better by 2nd January and feel completely back to normal today.


My friend, same age and fitness is still suffering from a cough. I never even got a cough. That for me is evidence of treatment beating vaccines.

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 04:14pm   (Reply to #5)


    Jim H

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    Many other Covid commentators are catching onto the gravity of this data

Thanks Primary Care MD… I agree that this is really game-changing data.  Many of our most cherished commentators do also.  Here is a new piece by Steve Kirsch, which also references pieces by Dr. Malone and Jessica Rose, PhD;


The kirsch piece has a great chart that shows, at least for two years, how predictable death rate data is once you get to large enough sample sizes (CDC data).  This is further illustration beyond the 12-sigma reference to how unusual a 40% rise really is.

And… statistician Matthew Crawford is weighing in as well… I particularly liked his take on how anomalous a 12-sigma event is;


Davidson described a 10% increase in mortality as a 3-sigma (standard deviation) event, so that makes 40% a 12-sigma event. That’s statistics talk for how far from ordinary unusual events are. For clarification, a three-sigma event should happen around once every 300 or so years and a six-sigma event should happen once every 300,000 or so years. We’re talking about the proportion of the area under a normal curve that is shaded in proportion to the total area. We would really need to zoom in on it quite a bit to detect with the naked eye.

A 12-sigma event is where geeky statisticians who have seen enough tables to know the round-numbers by heart have to look up the capacity of their software package to see if it’s well enough powered to perform the calculation. Whatever it is, it’s far more likely that an asteroid collides with Indiana tomorrow, ejecting 400 basketball-sized fragments as it falls that each make a perfect swoosh through the nets in every cornfield basketball hoop in the Hoosier state two seconds before destroying all of human civilization (really, I computed that in my head).

  • Mon, Jan 03, 2022 - 06:47pm



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    Of 12 sigma events and the weighing of evidence:sadly

no one gives a shit about data.

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