Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Login or register to post comments Last Post 55376 reads   258 posts
Viewing 10 posts - 191 through 200 (of 258 total)
  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 01:04am

    #192
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

The question is not just if, but how.  I would guess that DOD would want to bomb them heavily at the start.  That would include all the purported nuclear threat sites and probably a lot of infrastructure that arguably supports it.  Along with that would be infrastructure that doesn’t support it directly, such a water treatment plants, sewage plants, bridges, ports, military sites, etc.  That would be a strategy to inflict enough damage so that it would not be possible for them to recover in the near term whether or not they can export oil and gas.  It’s not necessary to put boots on the ground to make Iran a very unpleasant place.  The next question is how this would fly with China, India, and Russia, not to mention all the other neighbors and friends of Iran.  Iran might just be the instance of overreaching that puts the American Empire into a tailspin.  There’s already talk of making the US$ into a shunned currency.  All the billions of Fed money (debt) comming into circulation has already PO’ed enough nations to make them want to retalliate.  That money is heading for emerging markets where the returns are greater than they would be here in the US.  When the Fed talks about helping the economy, what they mean is helping banksters.  Bombing Iran might be the straw that causes some emerging markets to set up barriers to US$.  I doubt China’s currency would face such impediments.

Another question is whether or not Obama would pull the trigger.  Considering he’s a creature of the Fed, I believe he would.  His justification would be quite eloquent.  And bipartisan.

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 01:17am

    #193
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

My thanks to all contributing to this thread. 

littleone, you make an excellent point.  It is the steam engine of the out of control locomotive coming down the tracks at us.

Southerner

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 05:00am

    #194
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

[quote=DurangoKid]

The question is not just if, but how.  I would guess that DOD would want to bomb them heavily at the start.  That would include all the purported nuclear threat sites and probably a lot of infrastructure that arguably supports it.  Along with that would be infrastructure that doesn’t support it directly, such a water treatment plants, sewage plants, bridges, ports, military sites, etc.  That would be a strategy to inflict enough damage so that it would not be possible for them to recover in the near term whether or not they can export oil and gas.  It’s not necessary to put boots on the ground to make Iran a very unpleasant place.  The next question is how this would fly with China, India, and Russia, not to mention all the other neighbors and friends of Iran.  Iran might just be the instance of overreaching that puts the American Empire into a tailspin.  There’s already talk of making the US$ into a shunned currency.  All the billions of Fed money (debt) comming into circulation has already PO’ed enough nations to make them want to retalliate.  That money is heading for emerging markets where the returns are greater than they would be here in the US.  When the Fed talks about helping the economy, what they mean is helping banksters.  Bombing Iran might be the straw that causes some emerging markets to set up barriers to US$.  I doubt China’s currency would face such impediments.

Another question is whether or not Obama would pull the trigger.  Considering he’s a creature of the Fed, I believe he would.  His justification would be quite eloquent.  And bipartisan.

[/quote]

DurangoKid –

Interesting points raised, but let me offer a different perspective.  I seriously doubt any military action in Iran would involve an infrastructure attack such as you have outlined in your post.  There simply is no reason to do so.  Iran’s nuclear ‘capability’ – such that it is – is not a credible threat.  All this discussion in the media (I know, I know) of “The Bomb” is quite laughable.  Let’s assume for argument’s sake, that the Iranians have sufficient weapons grade material to fashion into some form of a physics package.  We can accurately state that they do not have a test program.  I would offer that a country seeking a viable nuclear arsenal AND starting from scratch would need to conduct testing to ensure the physical construction of the pit(s) would support fusion/fission detonation and ignition.  This is not a trivial technical hurdle.  You would also need to test various fusing and arming components to make sure they work.  Here’s the rub – that is the effort (immensely streamlined) to build a static weapon that could be lowered into a bore hole and tested.  I’m pretty sure no country is going to let the Iranians come in and drill a hole to put one of their ‘nukes’ in. 

Once you have a warhead design that works you need to mate it to a delivery system.  The US has at various times had several delivery methods.

Gravity bombs – these can/could be detonated in numerous ways.  Retarded Air Burst allows for selection of various Heights of Burst.  Laydown is exactly what it sounds like, the weapon is delivered to the surface where it sits for some amount of time before detonating.  An Earth Penetrating Weapon allows the weapon to get some distance into the earth before detonating so that the shock wave reflects off the surface and forms an underground mach stem via a phenomenon called ground shock coupling.

Cruise missiles – essentially the same as a conventionally tipped CM except a bigger boom.

Ballistic missiles – ICBMs like our MINUTEMAN IIIs or Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles on the US TRIDENT submarines.  Ballistic missiles come in three variants, grouped by range.  Short Range (SRBM) used intra-theater.  Medium Range (MRBM) – extra theater, country to bordering country, but not capable of intercontinental flight ranges and Intermediate Range (IRBM) up to about 800 miles.

Mating a nuclear warhead to one or more of these delivery systems is another level of technical challenge – one that also requires a robust testing program.

If you are still reading, you are no doubt asking what the point of this background info is.  The simple point is, the Iranians do not have any capability to deliver a nuclear weapon via any of the above methods.  While they do have the SHAHAB 3 which can range ~800 miles, they have not mated a nuclear warhead to one – mostly because they don’t have a nuclear warhead.

So back to your post.  Any attack on Iran would almost certainly consist primarily of surgical strikes to decapitate their military capability – C2I.  If the arms and legs can’t talk to the head because the head is gone, warfighting effectiveness of the arms and legs is greatly reduced.  Strikes to eliminate Iranian air assets and SAM sites to establish air superiority would also likely happen.  I seriously doubt the US would strike anything beyond military targets or power distribution feeding military sites.

I completely dismiss the notion that other posters have raised concerning the SUNBURN and YAKHONTS anti-ship cruise missiles.  The guidance sets haven’t been produced since 2004 and contrary to earlier posts, the Iranians don’t have 200 of them.  What they do have in inventory poses a degree of threat but it cannot sink the “entire US 5th Fleet” as stated in earlier posts.  Primarily because the entire US 5th Fleet is not in the Persian Gulf AOR and what is there can conduct combat operations outside the maximum effective range of the SUNBURN/YAKHONTS.

In your post you allude to the “friends and neighbors” of Iran in the region.  They have neighbors, but far fewer “friends”.  Their leadership despises the Saudis and the feeling is mutual.  The few friends they do have would be largely impotent in any kind of conflict.  The reaction from China, Russia and possibly India would be tough to predict with any degree of certainty, but you could assume a great deal of backroom deals to assure them their oil interests wouldn’t be threatened.  Otherwise, it would be reasonable to assume they wouldn’t too happy.  Unhappy enough to go hot?  Hard to say, but I doubt it would escalate to nuclear exchange and global war.

You talked about the ‘if’ and ‘how’ of an attack.  Based on my 32 years of active duty and retired service the how is probably less the all out infrastructure attack scheme you posited and closer to a surgical effort to eliminate most warfighting response capability.  I am more skeptical of the time frames some have come up with so the ‘if’ has a pretty low probability right now IMO – certainly not within the next 20 months (I adjusted for the length this thread has already been kicking around) as we have already seen one milestone come and go with nothing happening.

I think the real question is ‘why’?  I don’t subscribe to the “Because war is good for the bankers” theories too much.  If anything the ‘why’ would be the US engaging in a resource war – typical behavior from empires in decline throughout history.  That said, the fact that we are in the bordering countries of Afghanistan and Iraq, and have agreements in place to operate from Saudi Arabia, we can exert a fair degree of influence in the region whther we go into Iran or not.  Given that the leadership of Iran doesn’t truly represent the sentiments of the majority of Iranian people, I’m not so sure that we wouldn’t spend a lot of time talking and saber rattling and political posturing (sanctions) while in the background shadows we would try to incite civil uprisings instead.  All in the interest of maintaining access to energy.

As to political will to actually do something?  Obama doesn’t have the stones to take unilateral action and given the results of the recent elections, he has too much butt to kiss on both sides of the aisle.  He knows he’d get his ass handed to him by his base if he started another war.  I just don’t us doing anything anytime soon.

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 05:30am

    #195
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Those are all good points…

Would Israel ever take action against Iran?

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 02:17pm

    #196
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

[quote=Full Moon]

VF~

  Gee, After reading your posts on the wars, if I was not already a praying person, I would become one in a hurry. What are you planning to do to deal with these facts? I really do not see what else we can do. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. I do care.

 FM

[/quote]

FM,

Exactly as you are doing, but with a heightened awareness that everything offered up as truth should be questioned, no matter where it comes from, whether media, or even from me. I never, ever, ever believe anything I read, unless I’ve spent time personally studying it, and not just going along with someone else’s opinion.

I do concur with Dogs_In_A_Pile fully here, in regard to our agreed response to anyone elses assumption’s on this thread. That Iran has nuclear or military fire-power, able to match, or supposedly inflict, anything more than a very minuscule amount of damage upon errant circling forces surrounding its country. This understanding was only accomplished by ambitious and personal intensive study of the subject of the country in question.

There are several reason’s that I will never again take my eye off of the middle-east. The first was a near fatal experience in Israel. The second was the attacks upon the twin towers. A third was the realisation that 60% of oil remaining on the globe is inside a triangle in the middle east, no more than about the size of the state of Texas, which is exactly what all of those American bases are circling in the map I recently posted. The first I won’t discuss publically. The second is obvious. The third, is beyond obvious, but you’ll never hear an American president voice it publically.

Russian involvement in the manufacture of nuclear power stations in Iran, are a future threat for the US, since excess oil produced for export at the event that Iran has an online nuclear power source, would more than likely be directed to China, as a long term oil future program.

Worth noting, of course, is Sadam Husseine’s selling of his oil resources, accepting Euro’s instead of the pegged American dollar currency back in 2001. For a country such as the US, who have a sloppy habit of devaluing their global currency to extract cheap import of foreign goods and oil, is it any wonder that Iraq was invaded, simply with the knowledge of this alone? Also noteworthy, Iran taking the self same route in 2008, I can confirm.

If Iraq and Iran had continued being allowed to sell their oil using the Euro without being invaded militarily, the US would have had to sell something substantive so as to gain Euro’s to purchase oil from Iran and Iraq. The losses by the United States when after invading Iraq and returning the sale of oil back into accepting dollars instead of Euro‘s is noteworthy. Its status for the dollar remaining as the global pegged currency, as the currency of choice for all purchases of oil would have been seriously eroded if it had continued, with other countries appealing more to other currency baskets as a matter of course.

In regard to the history of Iran, I am in no doubt that the country is ordered and organised no differently from any other Statist perspective, more or less just like the UK and US, all be it on a smaller scale, but no less mineral rich. Remember again, that if Iran or Iraq exported carrots, would there be a need for the US government to use a percentage of the 54% of US yearly income-tax, to kerb or support energy related regimes, half the planets circumference away?

Since the 1953 Iran coup d etat that I insist readers here study the glowing link of, many many thousands of direct and indirect deaths were caused by, or on behalf of, the UK, and US, in Iran. With the use of the CIA on behalf of the British government, and using the late President Roosevelt’s grandson Kermit Roosevelt, thousands died, on are after the successful coup. Internal forces of Iran were manipulated to attack one-another. As a blow-back caused by the 1953 coup, The 1979 Iranian Revolution caused many many thousands of direct and indirect deaths, caused directly and indirectly by and on behalf of the causes created and laid out in the 1953 coup by the UK and US.

If it all seems so long ago, think again. There is growing concern that the coup attempt in the democratic election processes for Amedinijad in 2009, that caused the deaths of several hundred protesters, were caused, in no uncertain terms, with attempts by US involvement. If you question me, simply look into what US media has been doing for President Chavez of Venezuela, with the CIA involved 2002 attempted coup to oust him, and you will start to become as cynical as I, with proof of which, made in a deeply factual documentary by veteran journalist John Pilger : –

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3739500579629840148#

I am in no illusion what-so-ever that the world has been heading for World War Three since September 11th 2001,with the process speeding up and speeding up, along with our devolving and diminishing civil liberties. The above, is basically an attempt at yet another way of reading into the 3 E’s from a different direction and perspective.

What would I be doing right now?

Controversially, IMHO, if I were a member of the “special forces” ( tell me please what is “special” about them if they’re being ordered to kill people by and on behalf of corporation’s and banks?) and had a head-up on the information above, I’d go Absent Without Leave (AWOL). To hell with it. It’d be the lesser of two evils to end up in prison, than on a battlefield getting my head blown off, or ordered to blow heads off. That would be a start to my answer’s.

Yes, good is being done in places, but bad is more profitable. As I’ve said before, nothing so big and invasive does anything altruistically.

As a civilian, just as now, I would do my very best to corrupt and infect as many as I could to step out of the “profession”. If it isn’t a job in protecting the direct, physical and actual shores of the United States, to hell with it.

This post isn’t about stopping the banks or the war machine as a whole by the way, because that’s impossible, and too bloody late. It is just for protecting your nearest and dearest from harm.

Controversially, IMHO, get family out of debt fast. Make them default on their houses if they can’t pay them off within 30 months. They won’t be able to anyway, as the job situation is unstable and shrinking, and the oil energy that makes money possible, continues to shrink globally at 6.7%, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2008 figures state. 6.7% equals a 50% drop in current fossil energy levels in roughly ten years. How does that hold in paying back a thirty year mortgage, if you’re a twenty something, fresh out of college, and with tuition debts. The money they’re using right now to pay for a house they’ll never finish paying for, would be better used supporting you.

The infrastructure supporting the US way of life represents a quarter of the worlds resources, supporting just 5% of the population of the planet. Three quarter’s of all energy used daily is imported. 65% of all energy used daily is just for transportation. Who would’ve ‘thunk’ it could last?

~ VF ~

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 06:15pm

    #197
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

 VF~      It saddens my heart that our freedom and liberties are  going up in a puff of smoke and  yes   I  read a book on oil and the end times in the 90’s .      Sad to say our family is in he system and going underground will not be totally possible  .   There are loads of books Christian and secular that tell the  best way to prepare .   I believe as you say will come to happen and the course is set .

 We however do not know the day nor the hour but must prepare.and  be ready.   To seek out  likeminded folks to uplift and comfort one another .   For many our hope is not here anyway …. and may  we be found faithful .

 FM

  • Sat, Nov 06, 2010 - 11:32pm

    #198
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

FM,

 

I have no doubts in my mind at the internal struggle I have created within you, and of the pill that is hard to swallow that I’ve given. All too often on the forums, there are people who write, who’s very perception is blinded by what they percieve as a good and kind country that they were born into. But that is the very confusion in itself. They really were born into what could, and should be described as a good and kind neighbourhood; in a town that was mostly kind and considerate in the most part. The city, close by, held its secrets within by not visiting it too often, and the State these places were in, acted as mother and father to protect and support, all told, without much if any interference if one towed-the-line, and did right for their family, friend’s, neighbours, and of course, themselves. But that was back then, and even if it were merely thirty years ago. What I am talking about is now.

 

The propaganda that has become the news story in the US now leaves the truth as a whisper, or is no-longer mentioned, with an irrelevant story leading, where the relevant story should have been. By this process, there is an obliging ignorant type of bliss that has swept the nation. People may well sleep somewhat more contently in their beds in the most part, but they’ve lost all sight of the tools they should be using to protect what it was that made their early lives, and that of their parents generation, meaningful.

 

They worry only of triviality, and that of issues of other people; people they will never meet, who will never give more than a fleeting notice of them if they did, no matter that both are as irrelevant as the other; one a nothing fleeting star, and the other searching for meaning within those that are purely vacuous. There is no meat on the bone to tear ones teeth into anymore.

 

There is a commonality from my childhood I can just about picture from memory. It is of families laughter and involvement with one another as I past by the windows to their homes. By my mid twenties, something about that time has became even more obvious to me now, than it ever was then. The box in the corner had successfully begun to dominate, and the laughter in the room had turned to it, rather than amongst the five or so members of the family in the room. As winter drew on, the evening streets emptied, and through the windows of the houses, television as comforter, was where the owner of the house-hold sat, macramé’d into their sofas, with their bodies using less energy than sleep, focusing upon the screen, at eight pictures per second.

 

Posing a picture of my childhood, there was no family car, it was either my feet, a push-bike I built out of second-hand bits, or the bus, if I could afford it. School was a 3 mile walk, and I struck conversation up over time with people of all ages walking the same way. The stories I could tell you are from memories of the knowledge I gained from people older and wiser than I, that I was drawn toward as any child is, as they model themselves upon those that are older than their peer’s.

 

Now, in this modern age, children are taught to fear those adult role-models, even though statistically less than a single percentile of adults harm children. They are dropped off and picked up by car from school, no matter the distance, all told. Nothing in me calls this social progress. I would rather have corns on my feet walking in ill-fitting shoes, talking with a stranger at twelve-years old, than sat with an empty lacklustre mind in a car stuck in traffic, watching the back of my parent’s head staring at the back lights of the car in-front.

 

What knowledge then, of the bigger world out there, if the curiosity within is walled up under lock and key? My sense of self reminds me of the satisfaction of travel, and of the open road. Of every kind of wonderful; the sights and smells of strange cities around the world, with the names of streets so different to ours, but the children that played on them didn’t run away when they saw a stranger walking by.

 

But what I’m helping you to percieve of normality really isn’t. The year I was eight was the year that Saigon fell, and America ran with its tail between its legs after those umpteen years of tyranny upon Vietnam. The year I was twelve, Pol Pot had successfully led a campaign in Cambodia that had massacred over three million people as American blow-back to Vietnam. Vietnamese military rescued Cambodia from the regime, and the very communism that America was trying to crush from the world carried on. Nothing was resolved, and millions died, all from the results of the standing army war machine that Eisenhower warned of before he gave up his presidency to Kennedy in 1961.

 

The life I was living was manufactured within the manufactured streets of my home-town. They were built from the imported oil that was stolen by reparation and invasion of Iran. Therefore, there is nothing Great about Britain to me. What was good were its people. What would have been better for me would be fairness, and the sharing of resource. But that isn’t the present type of human nature, and has never been, even when the structure of church or state is added to the mix.

 

We’re still animals. All you need do is look at the curiosity of those around you when you witness a fight in the street between two men, to comprehend and understand the near joy that spilling of blood achieves for the audience, no matter how much they’ll say they disapproved of it after.

 

And what of the raging resource wars around the world, with the largest and most destructive weaponry ever known to man? It was the same when we only had sticks and stones. Remember, Rome was built on the back of violence also.

 

Finally, I was listening to a 2008 lecture at Chatham House in the UK by Dr Zbignew Brzezinski, who is a Polish American political scientist earlier today. I’ll leave you and others to translate his underlying message …

 

~ VF ~

  • Sun, Nov 07, 2010 - 07:42pm

    #199
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Dogs – Post 193

That was an excellent analysis.  I’ve studied military history and techniques since I was a kid and everything you said rang true to me.  I would guess you were a colonel with solid experience in intelligence and / or staff work.  Most likely Air Force.  Yes?  Thank you for your service.

Travlin 

  • Mon, Nov 08, 2010 - 06:16pm

    #200
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

[NYT] Obama Backs India for Seat on Security Council

“The just and sustainable international order that America seeks includes a United Nations that is efficient, effective, credible and legitimate,” the president said. “That is why I can say today, in the years ahead, I look forward to a reformed U.N. Security Council that includes India as a permanent member.”

Obama’s suggestion in the first sentence is that the UN is inefficient, ineffective, non-credible and illegitimate. Well, I wouldn’t argue with that. Unfortunately, Obama is saying that America seeks a new order who is just and whose reach is international as only they know how. Oh, and includes an improved [even more pro-US] UN. And if you’re not part of the order, you’re not just.

And would giving India a permanent seat really reform the security council? Really?

So what about Pakistan? Well, UN nations did arm them (amongst others). Then Obama warned them about armed terrorists, and then he bombed them. Then bombed them some more. Those mischievous Pakistanis. Them and their country strategically sitting between India and Afghanistan. And Pakistan will continue to be sold weapons because, let’s face it, they’re going to need them.

 

  • Mon, Nov 08, 2010 - 09:41pm

    #201
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1616

    count placeholder

    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Jumblies,

This film I believe you’re going to love …

[hat tip XrayMike79]

~ VF ~

Viewing 10 posts - 191 through 200 (of 258 total)

Login or Register to post comments