Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

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  • Sat, Jul 10, 2010 - 10:57pm

    #1

    George Karpouzis

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    Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Check out the latest poll re Americans and Iran,

Americans, not surprisingly, are highly aggressive when it comes to using military force against Iran, the poll says, with 66 per cent in the US supporting the option.

http://gulfnews.com/opinions/editorials/negotiation-is-the-way-ahead-with-tehran-1.643347

Also, consider this Gallup poll in Feb 2010,

A Gallup poll finds 61% of Americans viewing the military power of Iran as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests over the next 10 years. An additional 29% say Iran is an important, though not a critical, threat to the United States.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125996/View-Iran-Critical-Threat-Interests.aspx

So, with the above info and all the other news, sanctions, drum beating, etc, what probability do you put on the US attacking Iran in the next 24 months?

I put it at 95% chance. I reserve a 5% chance of it not going down in the event that some sanity comes back in the picture. The latest sanctions, the amount of media focus, public support of military action, all lead me to believe on the 95% forecast.

Please put forth your views and why. My concern with Iran is (1) people will die (2) more spending/deficit (3) oil prices will shoot through the roof in the event of a attack.

 

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 12:54am

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

The buzz acronym for justifying the invasion of Iraq was ‘WMD’.

Of course we now know that this was bullsh*t.

However the ‘sheeple’ are still so f*cking completely stupid that all that is required to fool them yet again is to still use the WMD excuse except avoid using the actual term ‘WMD’… just in case something registers in their tiny pea brains.

However I wouldn’t bother even doing that. Just call it ‘WMD’… don’t worry ‘sheeple’ have an extremely short attention span.

Just tell them Bin Laden is now living in Iran and that will do it.

Oh that ‘s right, Mossad has already made that claim!

Okay then, just get on with wiping Iran off the map so we can all get back to celebrity worship!

I think from now on I’ll reserve the term ‘useless eaters’ for the ‘sheeple’!

I really can’t be f*cked anymore!

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 01:51am

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

I think Obama is distancing himself from the Israeli’s to provide plausible deniability when the Israeli’s take Iran out.

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 05:22am

    #4
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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

[quote=docmims]

I think Obama is distancing himself from the Israeli’s to provide plausible deniability when the Israeli’s take Iran out.

[/quote]

Great point, the disingenuous creep!

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 10:44am

    #5
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

100%

In fact, I’d give it a 50% chance that it’ll happen before the November elections. 

And as for the Israeli’s and Obama, good points but in all reality, it’s a farce.  I watched a little of Obama/Netenyahu in the white house.  When Obama would speak, Net would be staring him down to make sure he said the EXACTLY proper words.  Net is quite a few grades higher than Obama (in the pyramid), so he was in total control of the events. 

IMO, Israel will attack first….Iran will respond……US will respond under the “gotta protect our Israeli friends” story……..What China and India do after that is the kicker.  It sounds like Russia is in the bag already. 

I feel very bad for the Iranian people.  They are one of the most beautiful, kind, intelligent, educated people on this planet.  And Americans have zero knowledge of this.  What a waste.

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 02:39pm

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Iran has finally raised the central issue of western hypocrisy:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that the United States must make its position on Israel’s nuclear strategy clear before talks on Tehran’s atomic program could resume.

Sanctions imposed by “arrogant” Western powers would not slow Iran’s nuclear progress, he said. “The first condition (for talks to resume) is they should express their views about the nuclear weapons of the Zionist regime. Do they agree with that or not. If they agree that these bombs should be available to them, the course of the dialogue would be different,” he said, speaking in Nigeria. (Reuters)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3917356,00.html

Israel has both nuclear warheads (an estimated 200) and sophisticated delivery systems (bombers, rockets, etc.). Iran currently has neither. Moreover, Israel’s June 1981 air strike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor demonstrates a credible threat of unilateral attack.

If the true objective were to avert violence in the region, efforts would be made to apply the same nuclear regulation regime to all nuclear powers. Israel would be a higher priority than Iran, because its nuclear capabilities are more advanced, thanks to a 45-year head start. Mutual inspection for confidence-building was a key feature of U.S.-Soviet nuclear agreements during the Cold War. It worked.

But of course, peace and confidence-building aren’t the objective. The U.S. is pushing one set of rules for the ‘bad guys’ (Iran), and a ‘free pass’ for its ‘good guy’ client state. This is obviously unfair, and states who line up on the opposite side aren’t going to accept it.

What’s stunning is the hubris of the United States in throwing its weight around, when it is utterly dependent on energy imports and capital imports (rolling over short-term debt to the tune of as much as $100 billion a week).

The U.S. clings to an anachronistic self-image, stuck in the 1991 time warp of ‘the world’s only superpower.’ Like the USSR which collapsed in that year, the U.S. economy is now badly hollowed out. ‘Defense’ [i.e. aggression and occupation] spending is bleeding a flood of capital which should have been invested domestically. Sustained malinvestment is a certain road to ruin. The arms race broke the back of the USSR; the U.S. is pursuing an identical course to destruction.

If the U.S. stupidly chooses to open yet another war front, or to allow its proxy to do so, its own stability and existence will be on the line. Its two glaring Achilles heels are energy supply and capital supply. An interruption of either one could put our lights out. The catastrophe would be self-imposed — no different than striding into a biker bar, confronting a burly guy with tattoos on his muscled biceps, and announcing ‘Hey, meathead, you look like a flaming pansy.’ Most observers would say the ‘victim’ had it coming to him …

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 02:56pm

    #7
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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

I’ve posted many times about this issue of the US on going foot-hold in the middle east for the final knock-down-drag-out with very little interest in response. IMO this issue effects the 3 E’s perhaps more than anything else. I would think on this site especially there would be a ‘definitive’ thread on this topic. Here is one: https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/upcoming-knock-down-dragout-middle-east/32598

After reading this article 

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/10004

it got me thinking about Obama’s about-face on the wars in Iraq and arguably Afghanistan. If you look at the map of the middle east you can see that the US occupies countries on Iran’s east and west borders. Is the reason he doesn’t fullfill his campaign promise to get out of Iraq because he knows that Israel is going to attack Iran? I don’t mean that he suspects but rather that he absolutely knows, that there are plans already in the works for a middle east showdown that will include Pakistan as well. Who are the players? What is the plan?

This is also very enlightening: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-preparing-bomb-iran/story?id=8765343

Now the Pentagon is shifting spending from other programs to fast forward the development and procurement of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. The Pentagon comptroller sent a request to shift the funds to the House and Senate Appropriations and Armed Services Committees over the summer. The comptroller said the Pentagon planned to spend $19.1 million to procure four of the bombs, $28.3 million to accelerate the bomb’s “development and testing”, and $21 million to accelerate the integration of the bomb onto B-2 stealth bombers.

It obvious, to me at least, that it is no accident that we are in Afghanistan, Irag and Pakistan, to some degree. There will be a final war over the last of the oild reserves. Its my assertion that the US and Israel already have a plan in the works for Iran. One question I have posed is how would the geographical/political ‘sides’ break down.

The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) would hold together IMO. Russia is also a strong ally of Iran. So what about the US? We would ally with Britan, perhaps Germany and eventually France. Australia, Israel and a few South American countries. I would also ask people to consider how technilogically top heavy the US armed forces are. We have a very expensive, highly technical military. Germany had this same type of military in WWII. But they were beat down by the Russians through shear will and overwhelming numbers of, men, tanks and guns they could produce. Could the US hold out with its expensive advanced technology against an enemy like China who could out produce us in terms of tanks, men, planes, natural resources such as oil, metals and so on?

There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of talk about this 800 pound gorilla.

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 04:48pm

    #8
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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

Great feedback and thoughts everyone. I would like to add this to the discussion:

1. Russia appears to have pulled a bait and switch on Iran as of late. Lets not forget that Russia is a huge oil exporter and probably would not mind watching the price of its key export double in price.

2. Arab states have no problem watching the US/Israel take out Irans nuclear program and military. Arabs and Persians have been in conflict for some time now. For the Saudis, who also happen to export more than 8 million barrels a day, watching crude rocket over $100 would be like manna falling from heaven. They get wealthier, a competitor gets taken down leaving more power for them.

http://jta.org/news/article/2010/06/17/2739662/poll-arab-countries-favor-tough-iran-sanctions

3. Americans dont want to believe that another war is coming. People are in denial about this. Of course, enough fear mongering by the press corps in the MSM and propoganda that a “4 week campaign” like desert shield would be sufficient to eradicate the “Iranian threat” should be sufficient to muster enough support from the broken and defeated American populace.

Here is a twist in the timeline..

Israel asked Washington for a green light to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities but was told no, reports the Guardian. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made the request in a private meeting with President Bush in May, but Bush feared air strikes over several days would lead to full-scale war and terrorist attacks in the US. 

http://www.newser.com/story/38423/bush-blocked-israel-attack-on-iran.html#ixzz0tOP7EaZ2

I remember reading this story before the Obama/McCain election. I was surprised at the time but it also made sense. Starting a war in the midst of a change in administration seemed too dicey. Also, the banking crisis and the collapse of economy surely kept the powers that be focused on domestic matters for some time. I strongly believe that the crash in the economy came as a complete shock to them. Perhaps Bush was war weary at that point, having watching Iraq fall apart and Afghanistan beginning to heat up. Now we have the Obama administration, which is fresh and thus, more capable and willing of fulfilling the orders of the central planners, whomever they may be.

Johnny O raises a good point, talking about the longer term implications and strategies of the wars we are pursuing. Because so few are in the dark about PO and its attendant problems, they refuse to believe that “energy” is the motive. There are others who simply state, “we need the oil, so fu*k them”. On a longer term horizon, it appears that the plan is country after country, every few years. Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003, Iran 2010/2011. To those who doubt his/our thesis on the motives for the wars, consider how North Korea recently sank a submarine, yet no saber rattling from the US. Just some “stern language”. No resources, no war.

 

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 05:32pm

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

I agree with LR. It will probably happen this year with Israel leading the way. As far as lack of discussion on this topic it has happened very frequently here in other threads. i know a lot of people on this site do not like Mike Ruppert (style over substance) but he was on to this whole scenario a long time ago.

Two really good reads are Crossing the Rubicon by Ruppert and The Sorrows of Empire by Chalmers Johnson. 

American foreign policy is determined by the CFR which is an outgrowth of the Roundtable groups of Cecil Rhodes. The creation of the state of Israel was initiated in the early 20th century by Britain under the auspices of the Balfour Declaration. Balfour was a member of Rhodes inner circle.

Rhodes like Morgan and others were bankrolled by the Rothschilds. This is a geopolitical game that has been mapped out for quite awhile. It is about power and money and only concerns us the wee people insofar as the chess board requires pawns to be sacrificed for the King. We will be informed on a need to know basis and public emotions will be duly manipulated to achieve the desired results a la Edward Bernays. All of this has been documented and discussed here in great detail albeit mostly in the basement where some of the most informative, rational and polite conversations take place on this site.

V

 

  • Sun, Jul 11, 2010 - 05:44pm

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    Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?

[quote=bearmarkettrader]

2. Arab states have no problem watching the US/Israel take out Irans nuclear program and military. Arabs and Persians have been in conflict for some time now. For the Saudis, who also happen to export more than 8 million barrels a day, watching crude rocket over $100 would be like manna falling from heaven. They get wealthier, a competitor gets taken down leaving more power for them.

http://jta.org/news/article/2010/06/17/2739662/poll-arab-countries-favor-tough-iran-sanctions

[/quote]

It’s interesting to review the previous precedent, the Israeli bombing of Iraq’s reactor in 1981. A couple of pertinent points from the Wikipedia article:

1. Israeli aircraft [apparently without permission] flew over Saudi airspace at 800 ft altitude, undetected. This previous bombing run, along with Saudi ambivalence or hostility to Iran, may be the reason for recent rumours that Saudi Arabia has given tacit permission to Israel to use the same route again. [Iran is east of Iraq, labeled in the upper right corner of the map]

2. Quoting from Wikipedia:

Israel’s action was condemned by the international community. The UN General Assembly passed Resolution No. 36/27 of 13 November 1981 characterizing the bombing as a premeditated and unprecedented act of aggression, and demanding that Israel pay prompt and adequate compensation for the damage and loss of life it had caused.[2] The resolution also sharply warned Israel to refrain from taking such measures in the future.

In addition the United Nations Security Council strongly condemned the attack as a clear violation of the Charter and held that Iraq was entitled to appropriate redress for the destruction caused. The resolution further called upon Israel to place its own nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards.[10] The United States supported this resolution as it condemned the action, not the nation.

Here is an example of double standards. UN Security Council resolution 1929 [the recent Iran sanctions] is being strictly enforced, at least by the U.S. and Europe. Whereas, the 29-year-old Security Council resolution 487, calling for Israel to put its nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, remains unfilled. Selective enforcement of UNSC resolutions by the U.S. is very evident to Iran. It leaves the U.S. in a compromised position, cherry picking the UNSC resolutions it wants to abide by, while aiding and abetting a flagrant violator of others.

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