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NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

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  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 01:31am

    #1

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    NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

maybe this was posted before but… did anyone see this?

 

NY Times says “peak oil is a waste of energy”.

 

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:29am

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

I believe it was, but it’s worth reposting.  I think the NYTs is just feeling hurt because they are living down the back end of the “peak newspaper era” and just want to deny peak-anything. 

The author makes some reasoned arguments, but there is no arguing that oil supply is finite, or that more and more energy is required to extract each additional barrel.  It ends on a very shaky argument about how much oil is estimated to be within the Earth, but does not offer any consideration as to whether that oil is even reachable and if so, whether it would be an EO > EI  proposition.

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:58am

    #3
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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

Thanks for reposting because I hadn’t seen this before. 🙂

The authour makes the standard arguments against peak oil, nothing really new or difficult to refute.

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 03:52am

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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

Here’s the thread from a few days ago:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/peak-oil-waste-energy-ny-times-op-ed/25861

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 05:06am

    #5
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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

http://www.youtube.com/user/770390ad#play/all/favorites-all/0/AhYoXG9Mnmk

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 01:56pm

    #6
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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

I’ve always just felt like, regardless if it’s NOW or not, it makes sense to get off oil.  You know, for national security reasons, among other things.  I mean if we don’t do it now, we’re just sticking our children or grandchildren with the mess.  Oil use is smelly, using it for plastics and such affects human hormones… I just feel like even if you don’t go with the “normal” reasons to be against oil use, there’s plenty of reasonable reasons to get off oil.  *shrug*

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:19pm

    #7
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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

Here’s today’s news about a new find in the Gulf of Mexico:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adF31W9._rik

[quote]Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc, Europe’s second-largest oil company, reported a “giant” discovery at the Tiber Prospect in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that may contain more than 3 billion barrels, after drilling the world’s deepest exploration well.

The well is located about 250 miles (400 kilometers) southeast of Houston, the London-based company said today in a statement. It was drilled to approximately 35,055 feet (10,685 meters), greater than the height of Mount Everest.

The latest discovery will help BP, already the biggest producer in the Gulf of Mexico, boost output in the region by 50 percent to 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day after 2020. It’s equal to about a year’s output from Saudi Arabia, the biggest exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as coming close to matching the U.K.’s entire proven reserves.[/quote]

Of course, it’s 7 miles down and article doesn’t mention ei-eo or technical difficulties, but they appear to think its a big deal.  Anyone have a sense of what this, and other findings discussed in the article, might mean for PO or prices?

Doug

 

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:31pm

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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

[quote=Doug]

Here’s today’s news about a new find in the Gulf of Mexico:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adF31W9._rik

[quote]Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc, Europe’s second-largest oil company, reported a “giant” discovery at the Tiber Prospect in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that may contain more than 3 billion barrels, after drilling the world’s deepest exploration well.

The well is located about 250 miles (400 kilometers) southeast of Houston, the London-based company said today in a statement. It was drilled to approximately 35,055 feet (10,685 meters), greater than the height of Mount Everest.

The latest discovery will help BP, already the biggest producer in the Gulf of Mexico, boost output in the region by 50 percent to 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day after 2020. It’s equal to about a year’s output from Saudi Arabia, the biggest exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as coming close to matching the U.K.’s entire proven reserves.[/quote]

Of course, it’s 7 miles down and article doesn’t mention ei-eo or technical difficulties, but they appear to think its a big deal.  Anyone have a sense of what this, and other findings discussed in the article, might mean for PO or prices?

Doug

 

[/quote]

My off-the-cuff response — and I don’t mean to sound surly — is that it’s completely meaningless in terms of the macro picture. Just think about the math. If the world uses more than 30 billion barrels/year, then this discovery would give the world a few more weeks of oil! It may have very short-term market effects — and briefly inspire cornocopians to wax contrarian — but not much else.

I think to alter the macro on PO, we’d have to be looking at discoveries in the trillions of barrels.

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:38pm

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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

35,000′

  • Wed, Sep 02, 2009 - 02:54pm

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    Re: NY Times attacks peak oil concept.

Mainecooncat

I’m not trying to pick a fight, but if Lynch’s article is correct that there are an estimated 10 trillion barrels of oil out there, and 35% of it is economically recoverable, then that pushes PO quite a way into the future.  And, it fundamentally alters the 3E equation.  The need of finding alternative energy sources or adjusting to a less oil intensive lifestyle becomes less urgent, at least outside of an environmental context.  Of course, for me, it brings into sharper focus the need to deal with climate change.  The priorities shift somewhat from finding adequate energy to developing cleaner energy and/or using less energy overall, and having more time to do so.

Doug

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