My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   9 posts
  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 06:15am

    #1
    LarryNotGary

    LarryNotGary

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 03 2020

    Posts: 9

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

Chart: https://imgur.com/a/0ldTtbI

Data sources:

Total confirmed cases: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_cases.csv
Total deaths: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_deaths.csv

First off, yes Chinas numbers are fabricated, and after making these I’m wondering about South Koreas numbers too.

Notice the lag time for most of these charts, 16-21 days after an infection point nearly the same amount of people have died.

Notice the world charts at the bottom, one including Chinas numbers, one minus Chinas numbers.
Places like Italy & Spain it’s been pretty widely reported that they haven’t kept up with counting the dead so their numbers of dead should be even higher.chinavirus charts

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 08:09pm

    #2
    gbell12

    gbell12

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 28 2010

    Posts: 8

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

Nearly the same amount of people have died, but the cases in that 21-day gap are probably contributing to that death total. Right?

 

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 09:57pm

    #3
    LarryNotGary

    LarryNotGary

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 03 2020

    Posts: 9

    count placeholder1+

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

Yes. I think the death rates are truly understated and only being made to look smaller because there have been 3 weeks of new cases by the time someone dies.

EG Day 0, person A is infected. Day 21 Person A dies. Now there’s been 21 days of new cases in the mean time. So Person A dieing is only a tiny percentage of cases. But in another 21 days all those new cases will also be dieing.

It’s impossible to have an ‘infected’ curve which is mimicked almost exactly by a ‘death’ curve yet supposedly most people are recovering

  • Wed, Apr 08, 2020 - 09:11am

    #4
    matfax

    matfax

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 29 2020

    Posts: 102

    count placeholder

    My Theory

My theory is that SARS-CoV-2 has a CFR between 2 and 10 percent, depending on the population age and health system in place. The Diamon Princess cases had an age-normalized CFR of 2.3 percent [1]. You need to consider that recovery often takes longer than a fatal outcome. Recovery may take up to 6 weeks until viral load is negative. Retesting of mild cases also takes its time until they are listed as recovered. That’s why you can’t compare current recoveries with current fatalities.

  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 02:53pm

    #5
    Sara1970

    Sara1970

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 3

    count placeholder

    Reply To: My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

It’s enough to look at the average number of deaths from previous years and compare them to current reported deaths. For example, in Bergamo overall deaths were: 230 in March 2019 vs. 881 deaths in March 2020. At the moment, covid testing is happening only for those who end up at the hospital and those who are sick and either recover or die at home are also not tested nor counted in statistics.
My personal experience (in a red zone) is that in a typical family, the children have symptoms of no smell, mother experiences 1-3 days of devastating flu and gets back in her feet with fatigue and cough, father (40’s-50’s) ecperiences 6-7 days of fever and cough at home before going to the hospital, stays in hospital for 17 days and returns home with fatigue and cough. Grandparents are careful to have zero contact with any family unit who needs to leave the home for essential work (many people live in extended family dwellings or nearby.) Elderly at most risk are in nursing homes.

  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 07:09am

    #6
    LtCdData

    LtCdData

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 21 2010

    Posts: 14

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

COVID-19 is no worse than the flu but is being blown out of proportion in the media for grand geo political reasons. It is likely the over all case mortality rate is only 0.1%, but the reason for it is to crash the global economy ahead of a natural crash, to remove personal rights and liberties, then to depopulate the world down to sustainable.

Here is one paper on case mortality rates, but there are more, all saying the same thing.. Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted The Lead Author is Anthony S. Fauci. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza”
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:39pm

    #7
    zsorenson

    zsorenson

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2020

    Posts: 20

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

I think the disease has variable deadliness depending on epidemiological conditions (short version – viral loads – though it’s a bit more complicated than that). CFR of 2-10% I’d agree with. Though, I think it can reach 20% with medical failure and a bad bad viral load situation.

5% would be the average.

Also, I think about half of people don’t become cases. So, IFR is 1%-5%, again, around 10-15% in a bad bad situation.

That’s pretty bad, TBH.

  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:43pm

    #8
    zsorenson

    zsorenson

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2020

    Posts: 20

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

I think these graphs are misleading you a bit. The rate of case increase and death increase are similar, so the shapes largely match. That doesn’t mean there’s a 1-to-1 correspondence between past cases and later deaths.  You’ve noticed a 15-26 day window. That has to exactly match how long it takes to die for your theory to be true. Otherwise, it’s just a matter of both deaths and cases are still increasing, and the shapes are similar.

  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:48pm

    #9

    dtrammel

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    count placeholder

    My Theory- Corona is nearly 50-100% fatal

Wow, you are all over the place zsorenson, lol.

 

Viewing 9 posts - 1 through 9 (of 9 total)

Login or Register to post comments