Mortality Risk By Age & Cause

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  • Sun, Sep 05, 2021 - 10:15am

    #1
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    Mortality Risk By Age & Cause

Ok, so this is a little nerdy, but I wanted to see what the CDC (pre-COVID) has seen in terms of causes of death for people, segregated by age bracket.  My question: “so what do I really need to worry about given my age bracket?”

And, of course, how does COVID (Treated, and Untreated) fit in to my current risk assessment?

Below, find the table.  Numbers are “deaths per 100,000 people” per year.  Basically divide by 1000 to get a percentage.  So for instance, people in the 85+ group has a 3.798% chance – per year – of dying from a heart issue.  The data is pulled from the CDC wonder database.  Takes a bit of playing with to get the query right, but its not all that hard to use.

https://wonder.cdc.gov/

At the bottom, I added COVID mortality risk, with an assumed 20% chance per year of an infection.  I assume that “Treated COVID” (with sequenced multidrug therapy) is 90% less likely to lead to mortality than Untreated COVID.  Also, there is a section that compares Treated COVID (TC) vs various causes of death. My favorite was “accident vs TC”.  Note each cell value is a factor; so for the 15-24 bracket, if you assume you will treat the disease (why would you NOT treat the disease?), the teenager is 458 times more likely to die from some sort of accident than they are to die from COVID.

Maybe they shouldn’t be riding that motorcycle without a helmet.

I ran this by an ER nurse the other day: “What’s the leading cause of death among teenagers?”  Momentary thought.  “Accident.”  No database required.

  • Sun, Sep 05, 2021 - 03:17pm

    #2

    thatchmo

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    Mortality Risk By Age & Cause

Excellent data set, Dave.  What are the years this death data represents?  Guessing it’s pretty recent, and doesn’t matter too much.  Your last comments made me think of all the years I rode, and crashed, motorcyles sans helmet.  Forget now how I rationalized that activity.  Wear a helmet when bicycling now….Aloha, Steve

  • Sun, Sep 05, 2021 - 04:12pm

    #3
    davefairtex

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    year of coverage is 2019

Its for 2019 – most recent year provided by our friends at CDC.

I recall dropping my motorcycle in the rain while going onto a freeway onramp.  The bike hit some oil patch, and dropped on its side in about a millisecond, skidded out in front of me, the side peg spewing sparks into the air, while my helmet-covered-head bounced along the pavement several times.  Bounce bounce bounce.  I slid for about 20 yards like this, until finally I stopped.  Fortunately there were no cars behind me, so I didn’t get run over.

No injury at all.  I was quite a fortunate 15-24.  🙂

 

  • Sun, Sep 05, 2021 - 06:40pm

    #4
    2retired

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    Mortality Risk By Age & Cause

Never expected to get this old, or still be as active. I remember my dad doing fitness in the 1950s, because he said he still wanted to continue skiing (which he did until his late 80s), I get that now.  I have done the ‘surprise airborne’, and ‘sit on the skidding motorcycle’ events too, so the covid risks seem manageable. It’s also better to be lucky than good. Now off to do my ocean distance swim, and hope nothing eats me.

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