Mortality rate calculation

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   15 posts
Viewing 5 posts - 11 through 15 (of 15 total)
  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:58am   (Reply to #3)

    #11
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3127

    count placeholder1

    re: re: re: Doc just died – implications for CFR

While I would normally agree with your statement, davefairtx, I think this doc’s popularity among the Chinese people makes it more likely that he’ll be considered a martyr…

Heh so you’re saying they DID have him whacked, but it was a bad decision by the central committee because he’ll end up being a martyr?

I dunno.  Live whiny heroes can really upset the applecart. People might start to listen.  And who knows what he might start to say.

Safely deceased, the CCP can throw the Wuhan mayor under the bus and blame him for the death of the hero.  They then execute said mayor for being such a bad actor, after his “show trial” where he admits his guilt (in order to save his family from becoming involuntary organ donors), and problem solved.

 

  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:03am   (Reply to #3)

    #12
    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 29 2011

    Posts: 22

    count placeholder1

    re: re: re: re: Doc just died – implications for CFR

That is what I was very ineloquently trying to say. 🙂

I was not fully taking into account all of the various layers about to meet the underside of the bus.

  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:07am   (Reply to #3)

    #13
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    count placeholder1

    Hamish -> Death rate 10%

Feb 4th Chinese stated that 80% of deaths were over 60 and 75% of those were chronically ill.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51368873

I found some statistics from 2017 that implied 17% of Chinese population were over 60 (let’s say 20% today) and 50% of them were chronically ill (downloadable here: https://www.who.int/ageing/publications/china-country-assessment/en/).

Attempting to do accurate math seems a little pointless given the unreliability of the statistics and the sheer number of assumptions involved – but these numbers leave me uneasy.

I’m sufficiently unsure of the information and my maths that I’m not even going to show my tentative calculations.

  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:29am   (Reply to #10)

    #14
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    count placeholder0

    re: About those unreported cases…

“Those authors also calculated an Ro of 2.6.”

And the authors of this study concluded R0 as 2.68:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

However they believe that the number of case on 12th January was about 10x higher than your report suggests.  I haven’t read your study in detail yet to understand the cause of the difference or any potential consequences.

“The fewer unreported cases there are, the less the CFR will be able to drop on a mathematical basis. Another data point to keep an eye on.”

This is all pretty questionable to me for several reasons.

Firstly unreported cases lead to unrecorded deaths as well.  In other words if someone never got tested and confirmed and then they die they don’t get reported as a death either.  So what you’re actually hoping for is that severe cases leading to death are being reported at a higher rate than mild cases.  That is likely true – but then you have to account for the lag effect.  Let’s say the mean time to death from test result is 14 days then (a) a priori the CFR is 2-4 times what’s being reported, and (b) in order for the factor you describe to even get it back to the reported level the death rate amongst confirmed cases must be 2-4x higher than amongst unconfirmed cases.

  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:32am

    #15
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    count placeholder0

    Doctor has come back to life!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049411/coronavirus-li-wenliang-doctor-who-alerted-authorities-outbreak

“He is currently in critical condition and we are trying our best to resuscitate him”.

 

Viewing 5 posts - 11 through 15 (of 15 total)

Login or Register to post comments