Mathematically, US must be hiding cases

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 08:23am

    #1
    Brennus

    Brennus

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    Mathematically, US must be hiding cases

Interesting thing…27jan20 the US reported 5 NCOV cases.  On that same day, 27jan20, Singapore reported 5 NCOV cases.  02feb20 the US restricted travel from afflicted regions.  31jan20 Singapore restricted travel from China.

Since that time there have been 70 more cases of NCOV in Singapore.

In the US there have been 10 more.  I don’t believe isolation wards in the US are materially better than Singapore.  I believe disease tracking and reporting in the US is materially worse than in Singapore (they’ve had recent practice).

It seems likely to me, based on what we know from Diamond Princess and Singapore, that the US have many unreported NCOV19 cases.

  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 09:09am

    #2
    GreenCebu

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    Estimate of how many undetected cases there might be in other countries

I made this plot of confirmed cases versus the exposure to Chinese tourists. I think this can be used to estimate how many undetected cases there might be in countries outside China. Countries like Japan, Singapore , Germany and France are at the top of the envelope, all plot in a line as of Feb 7, all probably find the most cases, these 4 have an R squared of 99%. Then the distance of the other countries to this line can give us an estimate of the number of undetected cases. Thailand 89, US 30, Phil 10, all as of Feb 7. Here is the plot. And the volume data.  Thanks!table of tourist volumeplot of volume vs cases Feb7

  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 01:27pm

    #3
    Firefox

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    Reply To: Mathematically, US must be hiding cases

they are hiding some…and they are just not testing the majority of patients with it.

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