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Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

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  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 05:30am

    #1

    Lemonyellowschwin

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    Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

Morpheous?

(P.S.  This thread may only interest those who think the price of gold is important and interesting.)

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 06:04am

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

PLEASE, PRETTY PLEASE, can we consolidate the dozen or so threads focusing on this question into a single one?

Don’t get me wrong – I think this is a very important and timely issue and I share your interest in discussing it actively. But as the site has grown so much in the last year, it’s harder and harder to keep up with all of the new threads in all of the various different forums. Once you find an important thread you can subscribe to it and be sure not to loose track. But when people keep creating new threads in different forums to discuss the same issue that’s already under discussion in other threads on the site, IMHO it only adds confusion and detracts from the overall quality of the site.

Phew! Now that I got that off my chest, Morpheus, whaddaya think? Have we seen a bottom at 1112? Wink

Erik

 

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 01:04pm

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

IMO, no. It’s got another $112 to go before it hits a very strong mental support, the dollar is still doing well, the Fed is probably not going to raise rates Wed, the economic news coming out this week will most likely be weak but not crushing (this morning’s PPIs should be an indicator of how accurate numbers reporting is not) and Dubai and Greece and Ireland aren’t seen as bad for the dollar yet.

I expect some more market manipulation 12-25 in the wee hours while Santa isn’t watching. Maybe some more stops will taken out and a buying opportunity may appear. Sorry Erik, I know you got bit Thanksgiving. If I were still in that market, my stops would be well below $1000.

but that’s just one man’s uneducamated opine.

Morpheus, what say you?

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 03:33pm

    #4
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

Talking about stops and trying to time corrections is dangerous.  Decide how much you can invest each month and invest it regardless of price.  Over the months and years, you will automatically buy less when gold is expensive and more when it’s cheap.  You wont be kicking yourself for missing a rally, and you wont be upset when there is a correction (since it means you will be able to buy more next month).  Manipulation asside, the market will alway be just irrational enough to trick you.

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 09:50pm

    #5
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

[quote=ErikTownsend]

PLEASE, PRETTY PLEASE, can we consolidate the dozen or so threads focusing on this question into a single one?

Don’t get me wrong – I think this is a very important and timely issue and I share your interest in discussing it actively. But as the site has grown so much in the last year, it’s harder and harder to keep up with all of the new threads in all of the various different forums. Once you find an important thread you can subscribe to it and be sure not to loose track. But when people keep creating new threads in different forums to discuss the same issue that’s already under discussion in other threads on the site, IMHO it only adds confusion and detracts from the overall quality of the site.

Phew! Now that I got that off my chest, Morpheus, whaddaya think? Have we seen a bottom at 1112? Wink

Erik

 

[/quote]

Hell if I know. Tongue out

I’ll believe it when I see confirmation of a trend reversal. Remember, the markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent. 

What I do find interesting is that silver on eBay didn’t fall that dramatically in price. That tells me that demand for easy to obtain physical metal didn’t fall all that much. 

When it comes to this stuff I do what a lot of folks do. Follow the technicals and wait for a trend to establish. Haven’t seen that yet. In fact, I see a lot of range-bound sideways trading. Until I see which way it breaks I’m watching from the sidelines. 

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 09:56pm

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

That’s good enough for me!  Thanks Morpheus.

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 10:01pm

    #8
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

1110 seems to be the serious support with 1127 the major resistance past couple days, although this seems to be a flag formation and will break  one way or the other soon.  I made some serious coin today with a limit buy at 1111.80, stop loss at 1107.5 and a limit sell at 1125.  that was the third round on that cycle on the Forex.  I might play that cycle again tonight once I get home and see whats happening.  Make sure you put up a stop loss, because if that floor breaks it will probably go to 1100 real quick.

I am dumb money. not a broker or investment advisor.Wink I still believe this is a correction and the major long term trend is up.

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 10:01pm

    #7
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

[quote=macro2682]

Talking about stops and trying to time corrections is dangerous.  Decide how much you can invest each month and invest it regardless of price.  Over the months and years, you will automatically buy less when gold is expensive and more when it’s cheap.  You wont be kicking yourself for missing a rally, and you wont be upset when there is a correction (since it means you will be able to buy more next month).  Manipulation asside, the market will alway be just irrational enough to trick you.

[/quote]

So dollar cost averaging as an “investment” strategy for gold.  No thanks.

Now if you are talking about buying gold monthly for wealth preservation you are all over it – and then I don’t care a whit about the price.  I’m also immune to manipulation since I bought tthe gold with paper that will be worthless.  And even if the FRN somehow doesn’t go to zero, I still have the gold.

Invest in gold = bad.

Trade gold for revenue generation = good.  (Huge distinction made between investing and trading here)

Preserve wealth with gold = great.

As far as market “irrationality”, I don’t buy that either.  The market isn’t a thinking entity.  Be market neutral, trade in the direction the market is moving and just take what the market gives you. 

And be happy that my wife can do this unconsciously.

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 10:04pm

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

[quote=docmims]

I am dumb money.

[/quote]

doc –

I disagree – you did what the market was doing and put profit in the bank. 

Just tell me you didn’t care that the move was up or down.

  • Tue, Dec 15, 2009 - 10:17pm

    #10
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Is the Gold Correction More or Less Over?

[quote=docmims]

1110 seems to be the serious support with 1127 the major resistance past couple days, although this seems to be a flag formation and will break  one way or the other soon.  I made some serious coin today with a limit buy at 1111.80, stop loss at 1107.5 and a limit sell at 1125.  that was the third round on that cycle on the Forex.  I might play that cycle again tonight once I get home and see whats happening.  Make sure you put up a stop loss, because if that floor breaks it will probably go to 1100 real quick.

I am dumb money. not a broker or investment advisor.Wink I still believe this is a correction and the major long term trend is up.

[/quote]

So do I because the fundamentals are in place. But I don’t act on what I believe. I always act on what the market believes. 

Well, sort of. LOL. 

I have enough Element 47 and Element 79 to have a healthy exposure based on the fundamentals. And, regardless, I’ll be accumulating more of the Argentum for the strong fundamentals on the industrial side. 

But, at this point I want to buy on the dips. The lows, the entry points. I want to maximize the returns of my investment going forward. 

+13 to Dogs for his comment. I made some cake on Argentum put options to hedge my long position. 

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