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Is it time to think about Ebola again?

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  • Wed, May 08, 2019 - 04:32am

    #1

    Rector

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    Is it time to think about Ebola again?

I’m sure you recall the last Ebola outbreak – this one looks like it’s on track to be worse.  An excerpt:

 

“Look at the spike in reported cases since April, in the graph above.  That’s after the renewed violence hit, and Ebola treatment centers were targeted.  What’s even worse is that those are only the known cases.  As I’ve pointed out before, in the thick bush and equatorial forest of those regions, I won’t be at all surprised to find that the actual number of cases (and fatalities) is three to four times higher than reported.  It might be ten times higher, for all we know.  The terrain is simply impenetrable to any Western standard of epidemiological medical care.  Vehicles can’t get in, supplies can move only on people’s backs or on pack animals, they’ll almost certainly be stolen or destroyed before they get where they’re needed . . . it’s a nightmare out there.

If I were the Ugandan, or Rwandan, or Burundian, or Kenyan health authorities, I’d be getting very little sleep right now, and my hair would be turning gray with worry.  They’ve already got refugees flooding in from the infection zone.  The disease could arrive with them at any moment – and there’s damn all the local authorities can do to stop it.

Oh – and guess what?  Some of those refugees are coming here, too.  They’re sitting in Mexico right now, waiting for transit visas – and that’s only those who are actually waiting to do it quasi-legally.  Others haven’t bothered, and have already crossed into the USA.  The current Ebola outbreak has an incubation period of up to 21 days.  With modern air travel, a refugee from the infection zone could take less than a week to fly from Africa to Mexico, and arrive on our southern border.  By the time he or she shows visible symptoms and is diagnosed with Ebola, they might have been smuggled all the way into a major US city.  If that happens . . . hell’s coming to breakfast.”

https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2019/05/ebola-numbers-tell-their-own-story.html

http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/05/ebola-faq-file.html?m=1

Rector

  • Wed, May 08, 2019 - 06:13am

    #2

    thc0655

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    Answer: yes

I’ve been watching this outbreak very closely. The apparently very effective experimental vaccine is reason for hope. However, the civil war, attacks on Ebola medical personnel and widespread skepticism about the organized medical response among the DRC population are very bad signs that this is going to get exponentially worse before it gets better. Because it might escape the DRC quite easily and get here to the US (again), I’m reviewing my self-quarantine plans and supplies in case I need to survive-in-place for six months until it passes through my new home town in New Hampshire where I will take up permanent residence on Tuesday. I’m glad to be escaping Philly on Monday, a much more difficult setting in which to survive an epidemic.

”Awareness buys you time. Time buys you options.” That’s true with lightning fast criminal attacks and slow motion epidemics.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/awareness-buys-you-time-time-buys-you-options/

  • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by  thc0655.
  • Wed, May 08, 2019 - 09:33am

    #3

    davefairtex

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    ebola vaccine

So while I wouldn’t get a measles vaccine (CFR: 0.01%), if there were an ebola epidemic, I’d for damn sure sign up for an ebola vaccine (CFR: 66%), assuming one would be offered.  After all, if I did get infected with Ebola, chances are I’d die, and that just wouldn’t do.  Measles?  1:10,000.  No thinking person with basic math skills cares about the measles. Ebola is a different thing entirely.  It is literally 6600 times more lethal.

https://www.sciencealert.com/an-experimental-ebola-vaccine-has-been-shown-to-be-97-effective-in-the-current-outbreak

I’m not sure I believe in the 97.5% number (if you parse the language closely, you will notice that only 2.5% of ring-vaccinated people came down with Ebola – and that’s really not the same thing as 97.5% effective) but even a 50% number would still work for me.

My guess is, you’d need to be a healthcare worker to be first in line.  That’s a good idea, or else we’d simply have no more heathcare workers on the job.  They’d all flee.

We aren’t yet at the point of panic for Ebola.  But it isn’t looking great right now.

  • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by davefairtex davefairtex.
  • Wed, May 08, 2019 - 12:33pm

    #4

    sand_puppy

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    Chris' Ebola article from 2014

Adam and Chris,

I just tried to dust off the feature article Chris did on ebola in 2014 but couldn’t get to it.  Must be hidden somewhere back in the “old” website.

Might be a good time to review how the disease is spread and what responses would be smart should it ‘jump the lines’ and end up near our homes.

My main recollections:

It is spread by direct contact, usually on hands, then transferred from hands to mouth, nose, eyes.  Virus remains viable for several hours on a dry surface. Same transmission pattern as the norovirus that infects cruise ships and pre-school classes.

Not airborne.  You can pass through the same room as the infected without contagion.

Killed by bleach contact.

Stored food, water are the main preps, as they would let you stay home and out of public spaces for the weeks/months while it blew over.

  • Thu, May 09, 2019 - 06:03am

    #5

    thc0655

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    Nature bats last

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-next-plague-is-coming-is-america-ready?utm_source=pocket-

The U.S. is not unfamiliar with the concept of preparedness. It currently spends roughly half a trillion dollars on its military—the highest defense budget in the world, equal to the combined budgets of the next seven top countries. But against viruses—more likely to kill millions than any rogue state is—such consistent investments are nowhere to be found.

  • Thu, May 09, 2019 - 06:49pm   (Reply to #4)

    #6

    Adam Taggart

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    re: Chris' Ebola article from 2014

Sand_puppy —

Here is Chris’ article on Ebola:

Ebola!

Sad that it is becoming topical again….

  • Fri, May 10, 2019 - 07:09am

    #7

    thc0655

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    Violence threatening medical response

https://apnews.com/f37cb9c50fea45b4a061c1e8d7b33a03

  • Fri, May 10, 2019 - 11:37am   (Reply to #4)

    #8

    davefairtex

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    bleach

SP-

Ah yes.  Bleach.  I recall stories from 2014 where every family had a bucket of bleach where they washed their hands upon coming home – and no hugging, kissing, or shaking hands for the duration.

Here is a post with the recipe:

https://waterandhealth.org/disinfect/chlorine-bleach-trusted-ally-battle-ebola/

A 0.5% chlorine solution or a solution containing 5,000 parts per million free available chlorine is an effective surface disinfectant against Ebola.  To prepare such a solution from liquid chlorine bleach or solid calcium hypochlorite, follow the directions in Examples I and II below.  Note that chlorine solutions have a limited shelf life, and should be prepared fresh daily.

After reading this post, you might ask, what’s the concentration of the bleach I have at home?  Answer is: it varies.  Of course.  Example – a bit dated, to 2014:

http://www.co.adams.wa.us/document_center/Health/Bleach%20Disinfecting%20Chart.pdf

If your bleach has a concentration of 6%, you would need to add 1 cup bleach to every 12 cups of water to make an 0.5% solution.

  • Mon, May 13, 2019 - 06:07pm

    #9

    thc0655

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    America isn’t ready

http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/05/i-dun-tole-ya.html

Zero has posted a frightening link to future events in Congo with regard to Ebola.
And the title asks: The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?

If you’re looking at me, just like 2014, that answer is a resounding “Hell, NO!”

We have learned nothing from 2014.
Nothing whatsoever.

Now a word from Reality:

1) Ebola is spread by coughs and sneezes.
That’s droplet precautions, not contact.

2) Coughed and sneezed particles of virus-laden material travel 25 feet, and are suspended in air up to ten minutes.

3) The minimum number of Ebola viruses sufficient to ensure infection is one.

4) In the current DRC Ebola outbreak, 50% of victims show no sign of fever once infected.

5) The only symptom airport screeners over there and over here look at, to screen out potential Ebola victims from travelling, is (wait for it)…fever.

6) There are 11…ELEVEN…total BL-IV hospital beds to properly care for Ebola victims, in all of North America, and three of those are permanently reserved for military victims near the US chem/bio research labs.

7) In 2014, we had filled 10 of those beds at once with the victims of Ebola we were treating, including the two ICU nurses from Dallas from one case of Ebola in the wild, in the US.
IOW, we were two patients from being Liberia then, or Kivu province now.

8) Once it hits mainstream US hospitals, society here is functionally over, in about a week.
So, you do the math on how well airport screeners (known worldwide for looking the other way for a sawbuck) and possessed of a 6th-grade education on average, and hazy acquaintance with scientific thought or even math above ten without taking their shoes off, will do at protecting the First World from the pestilence of the Turd World.

Ain’t. Gonna. Happen.

Afterwards, you’ll probably want to review Zero’s posts and links on the local LDS cannery nearest you, and start stocking up on buckets, and water barrels, along with the sort of canned goods that come in square olive drab metal cans.

The question isn’t whether such pestilence is coming here, it’s simply a matter of when.
After that, YOYO.
God help you if you’ve ignored preparations for such an eventuality, at that point.
Nothing else will.

{Where I’m working currently, they’re doing decon drills, which, exactly like the ones the .mil had me do in the 1980s, mainly serve to underline that with chem/bio threats, in any serious outbreak, the first people infected are going to die, quickly, and the most prudent response besides running for the hills and living behind concertina wire for weeks to months (if you can manage that, because you should), will be to bend over,grab your ankles, and kiss your @$$ goodbye.}

I’m not kidding.
I’m not exaggerating.
I don’t know how to put this any more plainly.

You will see this material again.

Failure to plan is planning to fail.

  • Wed, May 15, 2019 - 05:31pm

    #10

    thc0655

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    The Guardian says it’s “out of control”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/terrifying-ebola-epidemic-out-of-control-in-drc-say-experts

New cases over the past month have increased at the fastest rate since the outbreak began last year, as aid agencies struggle to enact a public health response in areas that have suffered decades of neglect and conflict, with incredibly fragile health systems and regular outbreaks of deadly violence involving armed groups…

“Whether it gets to the absolute scale of west Africa or not, none of us know, but this is massive in comparison with any other outbreak in the history of Ebolaand it is still expanding. It’s remarkable it hasn’t spread more geographically but the numbers are frightening and the fact that they are going up is terrifying.”…

More than 1,600 people have been infected with the Ebola virus in the North Kivu region of DRC and more than 1,000 have died so far – the great majority women and children. At least 10 months since the outbreak began, the numbers are rising steadily and the fatality rate is higher than in previous outbreaks, at about 67%.

Returning from a visit to his teams in the region, David Miliband, the head of the International Rescue Committee, called for a “reset” in the response. “The situation is far more dangerous than the statistic of 1,000 deaths, itself the second largest in history, suggests and the suspension of key services threatens to create a lethal inflection point in the trajectory of the disease,” he said. “The danger is that the number of cases spirals out of control, despite a proven vaccine and treatment.”…

New cases should be picked up by routine surveillance and testing the contacts of people who fall ill. “But what we see right now is that the majority of confirmed cases are coming through community deaths. It’s a very worrying sign,” she said. “It means communities are not aware or not active participants in the response. People die in their communities and they have the ability to transmit the virus to as many people as possible.”

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