Is it time to move back to India?
This is my first post on this forum so pardon me if this has been discussed already, I couldn’t find any relevant posting.
I have some questions that I would appreciate answers to:
1. Would Indian economy take as hard a hit as US economy? I understand that due to globalization and depletion of common pool of natural resources, everyone in world will be affected but the question is if US would be hit hard before it spreads to the rest of the world?
2. Would it then be a good idea to let the money I have sit in India (although very small amount in US but it multiplies when sent to India!)
I would be very grateful if someone can answer these for me.
hi, for question 1, no I think it’s going to be more painful in rest of world than the US. that is UNTIL the dollar is hyperinflated to oblivion. at that point the US will be a horrible place to be and it will be on track for a generation of decline as it tends toward the global average for quality of life, wages, etc. meanwhile the 21st century engines of china and india will be on the opposite track…upward growth toward the global average.
the problem is there’s no exact forecast for when the UNTIL happens.
for question 2, it’s really the same thing. the $ will do well as the next leg of deflation kicks in…UNTIL. would be smart to have your money in india well before the switch.
Thanks for the reply @strabes
Right now , US might be better than other places. but it would be very difficult to live in Big cities in US as well. With the Power crunch, it would be wiser to stay in self sufficient communities like towns. My hometown in India is one such place. Not very big metropolitan city, nor a small village. It’s perfect size to be able to self sustain with land around and resources.
Also, I planned to go back in a few years, and now it seems like if I need to start planning , it better be now. Because I cannot prepare for the “UNTIL” like many on this forum are !
I can, however do that far more efficiently in India though.
I wonder what could replace my current job 🙂
My two cents worth, maybe three cents actually because my dad is from bombay (mumbai).
The us is in terminal decline and its people are used to a much higher standard of living than the rest of the world except the industrialized world, i.e. “the west”. So they have a lot farther to fall. Depending on the speed of its decline and the various undercurrents in american society it could get really ugly. The higher standard of living means society is more fragile to disruptions imho. You might find the following book by dimitry Orlov interesting, although he takes a worse case view. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/ and http://fora.tv/2009/02/13/Dmitry_Orlov_Social_Collapse_Best_Practices
Secondly, I agree with strabes as to the next point, I have already sold off all my dollars. Better safe than sorry imho.
Aren’t professionals from india who have worked in america considered a valuable commodity?
That information sheds new light on the question. you originally asked about the macro perspective, US vs India, so I responded to that. given that you have a sustainable micro situation to move back to in India, I HIGHLY agree you might as well get back there now (once the switch happens, you might not be able to fly out of the US at all). if I had family in a sustainable area of the world, I would’ve moved back already. but my family was born/bred in the US so I’m going to live through the fall of the west, as Ed describes it.
the question I’d ask you, and Ed given his dad’s experience, what does India have for available oil and does your community not rely on it? somebody who previously lived in India told me that it’s going to have a serious problem with peak oil because it has none, whereas the US has secured its claim in the middle east given its takeover of Mesopotamia. that could be a recipe for serious depopulation in India if true.
I`ll ask him strabes
Isn’t there like 1 billion people in India which is 1/2 the size of the USA. I would look at resource density & try to project how another world war might play out.
yeah – the same guy who mentioned oil to me also mentioned war (domestic strife, pakistan…) and said another E, environment, is horrific in India (disease-ridden water, toxic air). you all know better than me about all that…I’m just passing on the report.
Thanks everyone for replying.
The population in India is way more than in US but there are some positives that work for India. These are just my personal understandings and not really from studies, but from understanding of some social workers that have done a great deal for self-sustainability of india.
1. The needs of people are very less there which make it easy for them to survive at higher population densities. (Rajiv Dixit, who works towards promoting self sustainability claims that india can easily produce grain for all its countrymen and I respect his research, as he’s an engineer and has backed his beliefs with data)
2. Weather allows agriculture most of the year, so people can grow “something” although it may not have a large variety, but still enough to get through a bad economy. The place where I am from is in a desert but we still have vegetables grown locally and grain raised locally and many villages around the city for people to grow food and survive. (and we do have water in lakes and have survived even with people wasting too much.)
3. As far as the pollution and toxic stuff is concerned, it’s mainly a result of the power driven and petroleum based industries and smoke from transportation, pollution of rivers. All this won’t be an issue when there is a massive power shortage.
4. WAR: I did not think about that but it scares me to think of such a situation 🙁 . I do hope that instead of fighting, people would come to senses and actually if the people would accept to live with resources they have around them then pakistan too has very highly fertile land itself!!
I don’t know if it’s right place to ask for a personal advise on job, but I would ask it anyways, I am working as a transportation demand forecaster right now, which I believe would not be needed in near future.I mainly work with statistical models and data analysis, so my plan was to go back to India and work as a financial analyst (so i am working towards my CFA level 1 exam for december,09)
But now i have realized that this would not be possible as well, I understand that many people here have understanding of what skills can be used after a massive change in our societies! Can anyone suggest something to me close to my current vocation that i may leverage upon !
Yours is a complex situation, and without direct knowlege of your locations, here and in India, I hesitate to offer advice. My husband and I have also struggled to know where to weather this storm, and for now, here is my viewpoint: Each and every place has its liabilities and strengths in the coming contraction. With the possible exception of certain probable “hot spots”, I believe that most people are safest in the location they know best, in every way . . . that they would, after their life is over, be most likely to identify as their earthy “home”. Home is where one has the strongest human ties . . . in a community where one knows not only the highways and byways, but also the “saints” and “sinners”, that is, the true character of members of the community. Home is where one already knows who the honest workers and businessmen are . . . whom they can trust, and more importantly, whom they cannot trust.
I am fortunate to live in the community, and indeed, the very house, in which I grew up. There is an old adage: “Familiarity breeds contempt”, meaning that when we know a person [or community] well, by definition, it also means that we know their pecadillos, weaknesses, and faults, as well as the face that they present to new acquaintances. Because we have more detailed knowlege of their imperfections, we tend to view them as less attractive than the lesser known person [or community]. But, I believe that the truth is that, once we know someone [or a community] well, their faults are less of a danger to us, because we have a deeper understanding of them (for better or for worse) and can more easily navigate our position in our relationship with them.
Getting back to the phrase “Familiarity breeds contempt”, I note that the root of the word “familiarity” is the same as “family”. This seems appropriate to me, as one’s home is where one’s family is, and one is never safer than with one’s family (not necessarily by genetic relationship). My point is this: that you, like all other members of the human race, are safest in the environment in which your ties . . . your sense of home . . . your sense of family . . . are strongest. It is very likely also true, in such a place, that your knowlege of the local power structure, resources, and pitfalls of such a community will be deeper than of any other place on earth. I would encourage you to search your soul, and determine, for yourself, where home is, and I would tell you to follow that, and let other considerations, like profession, fall into place, and adjust to that primary consideration.
Clearly, your background reveals that you are a person of intelligence . . . The kinds of questions you are posing tell me that you are circumspect, and willing to change and adjust with conditions. Unless there is an overwhelmingly dangerous potential there, I would advise you to stay at, or go to whatever place is “home” for you, and develop your “place” there, more deeply than ever. All other things being equal, there is no more safe earthly measure you can take than that. Whereever you are, there will be challenges . . . This time, there is no place to run, and no place to hide. Be where you know the community, and your place in it, so well that you will have multiple options for dealing with any contingencies, and where you already know the terrain, both physical, and social. I would suggest that you (and only you) already know the answer to your question.
And with that, I conclude my matronly lecture . . .