I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   9 posts
  • Wed, Aug 12, 2020 - 04:17am

    #1
    denalizen

    denalizen

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 10 2020

    Posts: 24

    count placeholder

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

So I am not so sure about the XYZ hopothesis, but I have an open mind.  In general, I tend to have some uncommon intuitions about math, from a being that geek that instead of partying on the weekends in college I chose to play around on my PC with graphing out some of the equations I had encountered in my calculus class.  That later lead to some access to some atmospheric modeling software that was batch processed on the old Crays.   I’m used to having to account for large arrays of parameters, and I really do think there are some parameters that have been accounted for in the past, that seem to have been forgotten lately.  But because of a lack of time, I’m just going to let time run out.  My bet is that the virus is not going away, and time will prove that out.   That we’ve really forgotten that masks are part of the immunity, as well as distancing.   Mostly because the math doesn’t work in the way everyone is assuming.  Hint, it was the Los Alamos simulation guys that figured out the wild R-0 with their supercomputer access.   It cannot be assumed “immunity” is the same throughout the whole population; accurate simulations are never homogeneous in it’s base assumptions, even if they are assumptions.  They get more accurate the more of those assumptions become measured parameters.  In the virus case you don’t just model one group of people, you would model 1000’s of groups with different makeups of parameters in a range.  What we are seeing is the herd immunity of the herd idiots.  The virus is still as infectious as it ever was in the community of the sane.   If those in the vulnerable groups begin to go out and get tired and careless, especially with messages that it’s safe to come out, there will be spikes again.  The only way out of this is to test, test often, and trace, trace everything.   Every level of timidness is a different herd, every timid herd capable of spiking just as high.

The numbers for X, Y and Z have too much of a range.

But anyways, Here’s some more about the same hypothesis, by another Doctor that has also gained my trust.  I still have an open mind.

 

  • Wed, Aug 12, 2020 - 04:28am

    #2
    denalizen

    denalizen

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 10 2020

    Posts: 24

    count placeholder

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

Not directly relevant, but food for thought:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LWmRuB-uNU

 

  • Wed, Aug 12, 2020 - 04:46am

    #3

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder4+

    exponential growth

Sure, I agree that the virus won’t “go away”, but the exponential growth dynamic of the outbreak will stop once the highly susceptible/highly social folks get infected and become immune or dead.

No super spreader events = rough herd immunity = no more exponential growth.

I do agree that, even once this happens, then vulnerable people will occasionally catch a case and we need to identify them, and then treat them rapidly (c.f. Zelenko Protocol) but if the numbers remain small, there will end up being a lot more serious stuff to deal with in terms of “things we need to worry about.”

Like, say, cancer, and heart disease.

  • Wed, Aug 12, 2020 - 06:17am

    #4
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5297

    count placeholder2+

    XYZ doesn’t mean “go away”

As I hopefully made clear in my videos, making a clear point about NY being down to a few hundred new cases per day, that SARS2 doesn’t go away.

It’s now endemic.

Which means the responsible course of action is to treat it that way.  Now that we’ve got to just live with it, what does that mean?

For countries like NZ that have stopped it cold, their future is one of eternal vigilance and excessive contact tracing and quarantine for every suspected case.  Let that guard down for too many minutes and the honey badger virus will escape and rampage.

But once it’s done that?  Well, the XYZ hypothesis suggests that the main damage has been done.  Not *all* of the damage, mind you – people are still being killed and maimed by this hungry beast – but the worst wave is now behind you.

At least for a while.  We still don’t know how long immunity lasts or whether the fall & winter will bring more favorable conditions for renewed spread and all of that.

But as the data stands, across multiple countries the pattern is case, case, case, cluster, cluster, BOOM, tail off and away.

So the best response after the first wave would be to spend all our efforts on shielding the vulnerable, working out the best ‘terrain boosting regimen’ and continuing to hone the treatments for the afflicted.

For the ‘long haulers’ SARS2 is this generation’s polio.

For the rest of us it’s the return of malaria to every location, swampy and hot as well as cold and dry.

  • Wed, Aug 12, 2020 - 07:11am

    #5
    ChrisK4242

    ChrisK4242

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 20 2020

    Posts: 2

    count placeholder3+

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

Chris, your XYZ hypothesis seems like an attempt to explain this shape, herd immunity with a low percentage of cases …

When we could be facing this after relaxed distancing, cooler temperatures and open schools …

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 07:34am

    #6
    tbp

    tbp

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 12 2020

    Posts: 424

    count placeholder

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

@Chris Martenson
So the best response after the first wave would be to spend all our efforts on shielding the vulnerable, working out the best ‘terrain boosting regimen’ and continuing to hone the treatments for the afflicted.

Agreed on everything you said, but you’re ignoring/missing a major factor/problem in regards to “terrain boosting”, which is the hypertoxic vaccine adjuvants that destroy the terrain more efficiently than pretty much any other sources of toxins (except maybe… drinking water in Flint? Cleaning up Fukushima without PPE?).

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 11:05am

    #7
    JoeVickers

    JoeVickers

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 16 2020

    Posts: 41

    count placeholder

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

For anyone supporting the XYZ theory, I would strongly suggest they look at the charts from the Spanish flu outbreak of the 20th century. It’s statistical shape is highly analogous the shape of the COVID graphs, And it’s second wave was far deadlier than its first.

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 12:22pm

    #8

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder3+

    everyone needs to hide in the basement

JoeVickers, ChrisK-

It is clear that there is an interest group out there that wants everyone to remain terrified.  This group stands to make a great deal of money – trillions – on yearly multi-dose scantily-tested vaccines, but only if we all remain terrified.

I’m not falling for it.  Joe, you can hide in your basement for as long as you like.  I’m going to be out in the sun, enjoying my life.

And if I do get sick, I’ll make sure I get prompt treatment with Zelenko protocol, and almost certainly, the problem will be fixed rapidly.

And meanwhile, it’s vitamin-D, anti-oxidants, and exercise.

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 01:00pm

    #9
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 690

    count placeholder1+

    I’m not an XYZ convert, but here’s more

I am uncertain what is going on with the numbers.  I am not buying the xyz yet.  But, the most mobile , and healthiest spreaders, may be the “now immune , have had it”, variable.  And account for the reduction of the super spreaders.    That is why , i do not like the whole shutdown thing.  We should be phasing who is out now.. I say let the 20-30somthings go live life as normal ( most will be fine likely )    let it burn through them , lending to less risk to their elders.  Let the youngest kids back to school first.   see how that goes. , then the older school kids.    after this healthy 40-60something.  then after its washed all those, and hopefully now resistant and unable to spread.. bring out the at risk  people.      You cant shut it all down , this is a balance and planned attack.   if things get bad.. it can be tampered with masks and other practices..     The question for me – that i need to see – is a study done on what real long-term damage is done to the majority of healthy people.. WE NEED to know this.   Other than this.. people need to accept disease is part of life.   We cannot hide out forever..   We should have hid out long enough to understand and study what we are up against and to design the best course of action.  AND none of this should be depending on a vaccine. This plan should be based on what we have and what we know.. not what if.. That could come later.. We cant gamble with the safety of something that may cause more harm than doing nothing.   The whole world is waiting for a vaccine.   that should not be happening in my book.  IN fact in non of the safety trials are they planning to actually challenge the test subjects with the virus..  That is crazy..    We may not even need the vaccine.

Viewing 9 posts - 1 through 9 (of 9 total)

Login or Register to post comments