I guess from this that death is not a long term side effect

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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 01:32pm

    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    Reply to: Maybe we need vax/ Covid insurance


Before I retired I was an attorney. I often represented insurance companies. They generally don’t underwrite bad risks. It is like “giving away money.” No insurance company lasts long underwriting bad risks.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 01:46pm



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    Reply To: I guess from this that death is not a long term side effect


“But let me be absolutely clear: neither you nor anyone else, regardless of their station/role in our society, where we are legally protected from this kind of coercion, is entitled to gamble with my health or life. ”

But you’re ok with endangering other people’s lives and health.  What’s the rationale there?

Jim H.

“On planet Doug the vax programs, even with some level of vax injury, are arguably a public good.”

Yeh, I do.  I had actual experience with polio at a very young age before there was a vaccine.  My limited memories and my parents’ description of my lengthy hospitalization and near death were quite harrowing.  To this day I still have a minor after effect that I would prefer not to have to deal with.  OTOH, everyone in my peer group had vaccinations when they became available.  I don’t know of anyone who ever had an after effect of the vaccine, though there may have been a few.  And none got polio.

WRT covid, there were many mistakes in handling the virus initially because it was novel and incompetence of the cdc and administration.  Perhaps some of your preventives and/or treatments may have worked, although I am skeptical.  But now we have vaccines that do work with little or no evidence of serious after effects.  The results being plunging rates of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Here’s a little reading:


“In the past week in the U.S. …New daily reported cases fell 23.7%
New daily reported deaths fell 31.6%
Covid-related hospitalizations fell 8.8% Read more
Among reported tests, the positivity rate was 1.9%.

The number of tests reported fell 5.7%  from the previous week.Read more
Since Dec. 14, more than 314,969,000 doses of a coronavirus vaccine have been administered in the U.S.

More than 147,758,000 people have completed vaccination, or about 44.51% of the population. Read more in our vaccination tracker.”

Those on my planet have to deal with reality.  I guess your planet is luckier.

Oh, as an afterthought, I highly recommend Michael Lewis’ book The Premonition.  It discusses the early days of the pandemic and its botched handling while there were actual physicians and scientists who had been working for years responding to pandemics and plans for how to deal with them.  Not surprisingly  they were largely ignored early on.




  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 01:54pm   (Reply to #18)


    Quercus bicolor

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    I guess from this that death is not a long term side effect

More on time weighted populations:

From , the approximate time weighted population for:

  1. at least one dose: 29 million (36 million for June only)
  2. fully vaccinated: 11 million (21.5 million for May 1-20 only)
  3. unvaccinated (68 million population – 29 million = 39 million) (32 million for June only

Note these numbers are for UK, while the deaths are for England only.  This will result in lower overall death rates in my estimation, but probably little distortion of the relative values:

Unvaccinated = 34/39 million = 0.87/million

Fully Vaccinated:  26 / 11 million = 2.36/million

There were significantly more cases in the first 30 days of the 2/1-6/14 period and somewhat more in the last 20 days.  The delta cases are probably weighted towards the end of the period when the fully vaccinated group was larger and the unvaccinated group smaller, so perhaps the numbers are closer than I suggest.  But even if we assume all delta cases that led to death were initiated on  May 1-20, we get:

Unvaccinated = 34/32 million = 1.06/million

Fully vaccinated: 26/21.5 million 1.17/million

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 02:15pm


    Quercus bicolor

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    Reply to Doug

Yeh, I do. I had actual experience with polio at a very young age before there was a vaccine. My limited memories and my parents’ description of my lengthy hospitalization and near death were quite harrowing.

I’m sorry for your experience Doug.  It must have been difficult.  I propose that your unquestioned logic might be “The polio vaccine was effective and safe. therefore, so are the covid vaccines.”  Obviously the covid vaccines require their own scrutiny.

Perhaps some of your preventives and/or treatments may have worked, although I am skeptical.

Investing the time in writing that one sentence is a shamefully inadequate argument to make to those of us who have taken the time to carefully read the scientific literature as I suggested you do a little ways back in this thread.  Either read the papers or refrain from commenting, please.  And please don’t ask us to summarize them for you.  We have done that over and over again on this site.  The ball is in your court.


  • On planet Doug, the current drop in cases and deaths is absolutely unrelated to seasonality and herd immunity from natural infection – and, yes, I understand that the vaccines play a role for now.
  • On planet Doug, my (and everyone else’s) anectdotal stories of vaccine adverse events and a culture of suppression of reporting are irrelevant, no matter how many there are.
  • My data in post 22 that suggests the Delta variant has already achieved immune escape is irrelevant.

One more point on the Delta variant:

  • unvaccinated case fatality rate = 34/35,521 = 0.96/thousand
  • vaccinated case fatality rate = 26/4087 = 6.4/thousand

That’s a factor of about 6.6! Yes, the vaccinated may be older and with more comorbidities, but they are also allegedly protected by the vaccine.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 02:34pm



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    I guess from this that death is not a long term side effect

The UK is tracking variants and giving us some stats. Although they don’t call attention to this nugget, one can plainly see that the majority of deaths from the Delta variant are now among the vax’ed.

If these stats are accurate, this is really disconcerting. Not only are the absolute numbers of deaths higher for the vaccinated, but the relative numbers are much much higher. This is not looking good. What will the winter bring.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 03:51pm



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    our value add

Doug is such an interesting case study.

Most of the people who come here have a fairly wide Overton Window.  They are generally pretty open-minded, and they are looking for answers for issues that the mainstream isn’t even interested in talking about.

Doug?   From what I see, he eats, lives, and breathes in the The New York Times, and The Washington Post world.  It doesn’t appear to affect him when these places tell him – and are wrong about – “WMD in Iraq” (oops), “Babies in Incubators” (oops), “Virus Didn’t Leak From a Lab” (oops), “Virus Can’t Be Transmitted Person To Person” (oops), “WHO Says There Are No Treatments” (oops), “The vaccine is Safe and Effective” (oops).

Speaking just for myself, I get a great deal of value from Doug’s posts.  I get to see what someone who is trapped within the MSM’s Overton Window thinks and talks like.  And I don’t have to be trapped myself (which could be lethal), nor do I have to actually run off and read the propaganda (which is very time-consuming).  He provides me with the “MSM Overton Window Service”, applied directly to the subjects we care about here.

But what I don’t get is, what does HE get out of coming here!  What could we possibly provide to him?

Doug?  Care to let us know why you keep coming back?  I’m really quite curious.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 03:55pm



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    Rough Numbers

Quercus, you are using the wrong numbers. We don’t divide the numbers of deaths by the number of reported cases. We need to divide each of those by the total number in their group.

The total number in each group is hard to find, but we can get approximate ratios based on some other information in the UK government report.

Let’s look at the delta variant deaths in unvaccinated people versus the deaths in fully vaccinated people. 35,521 unvaccinated cases with 34 deaths, versus 4,087 fully vaccinated cases with 26 deaths.

As someone mentioned, the numbers in each group have been changing, so we need to find the average numbers (or ratios) during the accounting period.

The data in Table 4 was collected between Feb. 1 and June 14. The mid point was around April 21.

Our World In Data shows that the number of fully vaccinated people was nearly flat through most of March, then took off. If we simply take the ratio of fully vaccinated people at the halfway point (16.49%) it will not be an accurate average, but close enough to get some ballpark numbers.

To compare these two groups all we need are their fractions of the total population; that is 0.8351 for unvaccinated and 0.1649 for fully vaccinated. What I am going to calculate are the number of cases we would have in each group if everyone in the UK were in their category.


cases: 35,521 / 0.8351 = 42,535
deaths: 34 / 0.8351 = ~40

Fully Vaccinated

cases: 4,087 / 0.1649 = 24784
deaths: 26 / 0.1649 = ~157

Once again, these are rough numbers, but this tells us fully vaccinated people are just over half as likely to contract COVID-19 from the delta variant, but almost 4 times as likely to die from it.

I don’t know if anyone will take the original data and generate more accurate numbers, but if the trend is anywhere close to this it is going to take a lot to cover it up.

My guess is that the fully vaccinated group is skewed toward elderly and high risk people (comorbidities, frontline workers, etc.), so the average person’s delta variant risk after vaccination is not quite this bad. It could even be lower. The general risk for old people is multitudes higher than everyone else’s.

We need to break these numbers down by risk group to learn anything from them.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 03:59pm



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    I guess from this that death is not a long term side effect

I always imagined if I got some fool idea to become a fiction author, I would try out my characters as personalities on message boards.  Really flesh them out through some real world interactions.

Maybe its all a creative writing exercise for some here?

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 04:07pm


    Quercus bicolor

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    Delta Case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated

Unvaccinated = 35521/39 million = 0.91/thousand

Fully Vaccinated: 4087 / 11 million = 0.372/thousand

Or 41% of the unvaccinated rate.

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 04:09pm



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    This weeks grim numbers

This week’s data for 12- to 17-year-olds show:

6,332 total adverse events, including 271 rated as serious and seven reported deaths among 12- to 17-year-olds.
The most recent reported deaths include a 15-year-old male (VAERS I.D. 1383620) who reportedly died one day after receiving his second Pfizer dose, a 15-year-old male (VAERS I.D. 1382906) who received Pfizer and a 16-year-old male (VAERS I.D. 1386841) who reportedly suffered a hemorrhage and died four days after receiving a Pfizer vaccine. An autopsy is pending.

Other deaths include two 15-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1187918 and 1242573), a 16-year-old (VAERS I.D. 1225942) and one 17-year-old (VAERS I.D. 1199455).

974 reports of anaphylaxis among 12- to17-year-olds with 98% of cases attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine, 1.4% to Moderna and 0.2% (or two cases) to J&J.
109 reports of myocarditis and pericarditis (heart inflammation) with 108 attributed to Pfizer’s COVID vaccine.
24 reports of blood clotting disorders, all attributed to Pfizer.


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