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How to make the Death Rate data more useful

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 06:46pm

    #1
    fhll

    fhll

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    Joined: Mar 30 2020

    Posts: 4

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    How to make the Death Rate data more useful

OK so I’ve been watching this map for at least 2 months. I’ve always looked at the death percentage first and considered it the most important number. It is still very important, but I believe the way this map (and other sites) calculates the death rate is faulty. And this will seem nearly harmless until I address a more serious issue in the second part of my question.

 

Let’s use the current US numbers as reported by the map on March 31 2020. The numbers for the US are at the top of the map below the “global numbers”.

map of novel carona virus data

I found out how this map calculates the US death rate by first plugging in the map’s US data into the following equation: (3800 dead) / x = (.02 death rate (or 2%)).

x is important because it eventually tells you how they’re calculating the denominator.

x comes out to a rounded 190000. The closest I could come to this number was by using “total confirmed cases” + “total deaths”.

so they calculate the death rate by using the following equation:

total deaths / (total confirmed cases) + (total deaths)

This excludes recoveries from the equation. Using that equation, “total confirmed cases” is effectively counted as recoveries. How could they make such a huge mistake?

If they include total recoveries the equation should be:

total deaths/(total confirmed cases) + (total deaths) + (total recoveries)

But even this is faulty because we have no idea what will happen with the “total confirmed cases” yet. And as I mentioned, “total confirmed cases are effectively recoveries when used in the denominator”

Why don’t they instead use this equation to determine the death rate? (This is my second question and I consider it very important)

(total deaths) / (total deaths) + (total RECOVERIES)

This equation gives a much better idea of what the outcome of this virus will be for people in the “total confirmed cases” group as well as any future confirmed cases. The results are horrifying, but they give a more accurate sense of the actual situation and probable future of the “total confirmed cases”. The “total confirmed cases” are basically eggs that haven’t hatched yet (don’t count your recoveries before they hatch). Using “total confirmed cases” in any equation does nothing but make the death rate look much smaller than it actually is. The best way to predict the future of  the “total confirmed cases” is to look at the results of cases that have run their course to recovery or death.

I was very stressed, tired and still kind of shocked when I wrote this so apologies for any parts i didn’t completely explain. If there are any errors typos or unclear parts, please let me know.

  • Sat, Apr 04, 2020 - 10:23am

    #2
    fhll

    fhll

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 30 2020

    Posts: 4

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    Reply To: How to make the Death Rate data more useful

Chris Martenson, I noticed you are now using the formula I came up with to calculate the real death rate. Could you please give me credit? My name is Grant.

I also realized the resolved case numbers will change dramatically when hospitals cant let any more people in . Unfortunately we can’t estimate what the death/recovery will be when hospitals can’t take any more patients, but I think it could be worse than even the Black Plague.

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