Herd Imunity?

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  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 05:00am

    #1
    LRacine

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    Herd Imunity?

In the last presentation Chris made is questioned it it was possible that some populations in Europe were reaching herd immunity given the new case rate.  I would argue that is NOT the case.  The reason the new case rate is lower in those countries is due to very effective contact tracing and containment efforts among the population/county.

I draw your attention the following random Total Cases per 1 Million Population in various counties.

USA 16,184 , Germany 2,635, New Zealand 318, Sweden 8,257, Singapore 9,477, Hong Kong 575.

What do the counties with the fewest Total Cases per Million of their population have in common?  It is not “XYZ herd immunity” it is aggressive contact tracing and isolation.

Occam’s razor Chris??????

 

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 12:27pm

    #2

    davefairtex

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    weight of evidence

Weight of evidence in favor of herd immunity is staggering at this point.

Poor pharma.  They really are having to paddle hard upstream right now.

In another month, even CNN will start talking about herd immunity.

Sucks to be you guys.

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 02:46pm

    #3
    nordicjack

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    Herd Imunity?

Trump might be right.  This thing will just miraculously go away/  He may end up looking like a genius by election day..

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 11:05pm

    #4
    Hohhot

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    Herd Immunity as been achieved in Mumbai slums but few other places

Supposedly over 50% of Mumbai’s slum dwellers have tested Covid antibodies. Poor sanitation, open urination/sewer drains, sometimes no running water, communal food sources, and I would bet sketchy mask wearing. No idea if they passed out HCQ there as they have in other locales in India.

Contrast this to Oman. The MOH recently stopped all public testing unless the patient is hospitalized. They previously spent about $1million/day in testing of citizens and any workers entering. They had strict quarantine on entry in state approved places, rigorous contact tracing, lockdowns, mask wearing, and even deployed drones…all for naught. Oman was #2 in the world in reported cases often in the 700s-1000s per day. The death rate remained low throughout. They finally realized it had no measured effect and are beginning to relax the restrictions.

Due to the numerous unknowns- ethnic genetics, environmental factors/pollution, health practices- we have no strong trends identified as the road out of the pandemic. People point to this country or the next and say,”Their numbers are low. They must be doing it right.” Not true as there’s no consistency.

Thailand imported Chinese tourists (even from Wuhan) into the country into April. At first, their numbers rose dramatically making them #6 in the world. Magically, the MOH stopped reporting cases suddenly. Testing was way out of the financial reach of the average citizen, and they only got it if hospitalized. For a couple of months, you couldn’t get tested even if you had the cash.

Then finally the ruling govt. did some blanket restrictions- no alcohol sales, no tourists, no travel within the country. Each province and large city’s mayor’s came up with a patch work of more restrictions like wearing a mask alone in your car or not being able to eat at a restaurant, but outdoor markets teaming with food and produce were OK. No death tolls like Italy even with a very active sex industry. Their govt. is now declaring success of their actions. Huh?

This idea to copy the success model plays out in business. Someone wishing to start a business and be prudent, studies and imitates the behaviors of the millionaire. Often  they sadly fail. Why? Because it was a confluence of circumstances that gave the millionaire the success, not necessarily sterling business acumen. Right place, right product, right time that fell into place. That’s what happened with Covid.  There is NO successful standard that we can say definitively : “This works. Do this.” World-wide it’s been a free-for-all of approaches with  varying results, some good, some bad. Time to regroup and get the kids in school and people to work as many more may die from problems like depression, hunger, and homelessness than Covid.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 03:15am

    #5

    sand_puppy

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    Mumbai slums

Hohhot, I would like to read more about the disease progression/immunity curves/antibody levels in the Mumbai slums that you have mentioned a couple of times.  This is really important information.

Can you please provide a source link?

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 04:15am

    #6
    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Herd Imunity?

What do the counties with the fewest Total Cases per Million of their population have in common?  It is not “XYZ herd immunity” it is aggressive contact tracing and isolation.

Occam’s razor Chris?

I already explained this several times.  To repeat, there are two paths a country can follow.  One is the model of NZ, China, SK, et al.,  which involves aggressive testing and contact tracing.  That, however, comes with the price of eternal vigilance against the honey badger virus which is always seeking to break into your cage.

The other path involves anything less than perfect adherence to pandemic protocols and quickly becomes a herd immunity approach due to the extremely high R0 of SARS2, coupled to its asymptomatic transmission.  It just sweeps through, largely undetected due to the extremely high number of asymptomatic and low symptom patients.

That’s the best fit to the data I’ve got right now.  Always seeking better data, of course.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 01:10pm

    #7
    nordicjack

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    Herd Imunity?

My guess is this thing is out there.  Even being careful wont protect you.   It is possible that its all food borne now.  And the temps and times required to kill the virus are not sufficient in many cooking methods.    So , it may be it has hit everyone mostly where is benign to most.   The question now comes.  What is causing some people to get so sick?  Is it an ADE?    We should figure it out.. My guess is the later.  If so , we are in big trouble.  It means after vaccinating etc..  or getting this a few times.  We all could get severe. The virus is not going away completely anytime soon.

  • Fri, Aug 14, 2020 - 10:31pm

    #8
    Hohhot

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    Links for Mumbai slum

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/herd-immunity-seems-to-be-developing-in-mumbais-poorest-areas/ar-BB17jOcO

https://nypost.com/2020/07/29/mumbai-slums-have-highest-coronavirus-immunity-rate-study/

The first survey was early July. A second is planned with publication set for September. Cannot locate the original scientific study reference at this time.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/mumbai-second-sero-survey-in-the-same-bmc-wards-from-august-10-outcome-to-help-chart-out-covid-combat-strategy/articleshow/77257455.cms?utm_source=Articleshow&utm_medium=Organic&utm_campaign=Related_Stories

  • Sat, Aug 15, 2020 - 04:30am

    #9
    David McKenney

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    Herd Imunity?

Could it be that treating this with the cheap drugs turns out to be the best way to deal with it, even if there was  a very effective vaccine? Is there any evidence to prove this?

  • Sat, Aug 15, 2020 - 02:01pm

    #10
    nordicjack

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    Herd Imunity?

@david,

Yes , I think therapeutics are the way to go.   I have mentioned its better to treat with things we do have – than bank on things we may have.

I do not think the vaccine is going to perform the way people are used to having vaccines perform.   This is not like getting the flu vaccine each year.    I think we will eventually be looking at some form of immune enhancement effect down the road that will be disastrous .   we cannot speed up the clock.   AND they are actually trying to do that with the vaccines.  It is out-right reckless.  I understand the desire to have something for this.  But to disregard everything we know and have done to make vaccines safe,  this is not the one to shortcut – but they will.   I promise you , it will not end well.

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