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Gold’s near future

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 08:50pm

    #11
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

Silver is good, David Morgan says better than gold in some periods, http://www.mininginteractive.com/videos/videos.php?link=camb200901dm

My take is there are 2 crimes listed by name in the Constitution, counterfiet and treason, and when I see Jefferson say if we let private banks make money our kids will wake up homeless I have to think that the most opposite of what got us in the mess will get people out.

Take care 

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 08:52pm

    #12
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

I’ll need more GLL if gold hits $600!

Supposedly (Prechter) gold does well in a deflationary depression but that seems to be based largely on the perfomance of one old mining stock back then, as far as I can tell.

 

SG

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 09:16pm

    #14
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    Re: Gold’s near future

[quote=strabes]

That investment is ideal because we’re in deflation.     

The bond market rules the world.  It’s the best "investment advisor" to watch.  It’s real clear…we’re in deflation.  

[/quote]

 

Hmmm………I had to think on that a bit and do some Googling. You’re right! Here’s the way Forbes puts it:

[url]http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/09/deflation-lending-saving-fan-ii-in_ags_1209soapbox_inl.html[/url]

And although I really never looked at it this way it’s pretty clear-cut when I do. There are fewer dollars chasing more goods. Interest rates are going down, not up. Prices on everything are decreasing, not increasing.

That also tells me that right now is not the time to buy bullion. We have closed this thread….lol

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 09:19pm

    #13
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    Re: Gold’s near future

Prechter is one of those who are predicting gold below $700 in a big correction before it goes to the next big wave up > $1000.

jerry, just to clarify since you wondered if T-bonds are cash. T-bills (current cash) and bonds (delayed cash) are the ultimate cash vehicle (though it is savings, not "money" that is pumped into the economy, i.e. inflationary)…more like cash than a bank account because the risk is lower.  

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 09:24pm

    #15
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

No, wait, buy GLL!

SG

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 09:28pm

    #16
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    Re: Gold’s near future

A while back Chris was recommending a 2/3 gold to 1/3 silver allocation in terms of precious metals.  Not sure if that still stands, but it makes sense to me.  A lot of people like the 90% junk silver for the reason you describe: easier to use in small increments.  It is, however, much bulkier and heavier.

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 09:38pm

    #17
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

I just bought 5 kg silver ‘ pellets’ (wholesale item for jewelry shops), i have some gold too. Percentage wise silver has a lot more upward potential. Gold being around $1000 is more of a psychological barrier, that one is difficult to break and hold. If we see gold trading 1 or 2 months above $1000, the movement upwards can start again. 

Now however gold is tempting, i am waiting for it to go under $900 to buy some more. My feeling is that any price under $950 is a buying oppertunity. My strategy is buy and hold for wealth preservation and hedging against inflation. If inflation starts to hit the dollar, and in my case the euro gold can be a livesaver. I don’t buy coins but 96.5% jewelry and small blocks of 15 grams and 75 grams, the markup is low. It is easily available in Thailand where i have family, so i just send them an order once in a while. Smile  

My feeling for the near future is that gold will go a little lower this week, but after the weekend, when another bank is closed or some other plans are cooked, gold starts to rise again.

My stockmarket strategy is buying puts with expire dates in 2011-2013 on a friday and sell them on monday. Until now that strategy seems to work. And if the shareprice not go down enough or miracles of miracles went up i just wait for the next weekend doubling down the positions.

 

  • Wed, Mar 04, 2009 - 12:11am

    #18
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    Re: Gold’s near future

If the gold market is still subject to the whims of bond traders, then I’d have to think that things are still not as bad as some here would suppose.  Bond traders are betting that there is still time to stay in the dollar/treasuries beacause its a safer bet than gold and there is enough time to get out of paper money and maybe get back into cheaper gold?  Then that’s normal market speculation, not a defining critical crisis moment in history.  Am I making any sense?  Gold is the only store of value and its going to get cheaper because we’re in deflation of paper money?  Somebody smart please explain the logic to me.

  • Wed, Mar 04, 2009 - 12:23am

    #19
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    Re: Gold’s near future

Gold and the dollar usually move in opposition. Oddly, despite all of the long term problems we here at CM know about, the dollar, compared to many other currencies, apparently looks good (as the world’s reserve currency), leading to a "flight to quality". So, gold is heading downward (a temporary bubble some think). There is also speculation that PTB are keeping gold low. In any event, when the trillions of dollars finally hit the fan here, they will probably start a rush back into gold, so the thinking goes. It’s hard to see inflation spiking suddenly when things around us still look like they’re going to hell. That suggests that we have some time to acquire gold as it declines a bit. Strabes, above, thought to $600; I have no idea. That would make my newbie purchases of several coins in the last month a bad short term investment but, unless you are a trader/speculator, it shouldn’t hurt quite as much. We’re in it for the long haul, right. That said, it hurts me enuf to hedge with GLL, from which I will bail should gold reverse itself.

 JMHO.

SG

  • Wed, Mar 04, 2009 - 12:44am

    #20
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    Re: Gold’s near future

[quote=plantguy90]If the gold market is still subject to the whims of bond traders, then I’d have to think that things are still not as bad as some here would suppose.  Bond traders are betting that there is still time to stay in the dollar/treasuries beacause its a safer bet than gold and there is enough time to get out of paper money and maybe get back into cheaper gold?  Then that’s normal market speculation, not a defining critical crisis moment in history.  Am I making any sense?  Gold is the only store of value and its going to get cheaper because we’re in deflation of paper money?  Somebody smart please explain the logic to me.
[/quote]

I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer in here, but the guy that pointed out that T-Bills are not really bonds and are very similar to cash was correct because although they are not cash, the investments are so short-term  (they mature in 1 month, 3 months or 6 months) one might as well consider them as cash.

Gold is not the ONLY store of value. We have silver, dollars, yen, euros and I have a friend who has over a million dollars stored in…..um…..hay bales.

Gold is popular when the dollar is inflating, but the dollar is deflating. Good…..I have a few dollars and I want them to deflate so that less dollars will buy more goods.

If the dollar begins to inflate, I need to do something else. I really don’t think the bond traders have much to do with the price of gold, they are just following the economy and  as such, used as an indicator of where to invest.

 

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