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Gold’s near future

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  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 04:07pm

    #1
    capesurvivor

    capesurvivor

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    Gold’s near future

I am far from a skilled speculator but I do know that Feb./March through August is customarily gold’s weak time. Today it is down and it has been in a slide recently. Like some of you I have purchased a few gold coins and hate to see, even short term, my investment (I know, long term store of value) decline. What I have done is bought GLL, an inverse gold fund that is about 2X negative correlated with price of gold.

JMHO and think this through for you. I used a stop yesterday to not give up my profits but was not stopped out. I will continue to watch gold as it (possibly) declines and then pick up another coin or two while knowing I continue to make $ on the downside.

Jeez, I almost sound like a someone who has engineered a great IRA!  LOL.

GLTA.

 

SG

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 04:13pm

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

I’m afraid of gold because so many have bought it. I have some dollars that I need to do something with but I’m not sure exactly what. I would be interested to hear opinions on the subjects.

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 06:03pm

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

You’re afraid that too many people have bought it?

Ask around your friends and community how many people have bought gold.  I am the only person I know in my circle of friends and neighbors that own some form of gold.

Gold is volatile.  I think it could break below $900 and can easily break up above $1000 again.  Long term I think gold will be higher.  If it hits low $900 I would suggest that is a good buying point.  I would only buy above $1000 if it breaks above $1000 and holds and closes the day at such levels for several days in a row.  That shows support at the $1000 level, a base where it can move higher.  Until that support is created, it could just go up & hit $1000 and bounce back.

At the rate the world printing presses are running gold can easily reach $2000 by the end of the year.

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 06:37pm

    #4
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

I’m only afraid of anything that they can create out of thin air. Until Bernanke can turn lead into gold I’m not worried. Gold could be for some considered a small insurance policy against a (even more) worthless "dollar." 

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 07:06pm

    #5
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

Well, I don’t personally know that many people who have invested in gold but it did top 1000 so someone is buying it. More precisely, I suppose, is this question: over the past few months as the equity market began to slide, people converted their stocks into dollars and I don’t know many savvy investors who would want to stay in dollars in this economy.

Gold began to soar toward 1000 during this period so did many of these people move from stocks to gold? Also, gold IRAs are all the rage right now. Is the gold market saturated for now?

One might draw that inference because the Dow is still plunging yet gold is retreating from it’s high as well.

I agree, Davos. Inflation is the beast that scares me the most which is why I want little cash on hand. I’m looking at silver.

If times get tough, wouldn’t it also be easier (more convenient) for trade to have $1000.00 in several silver coins rather than $1000.00 in a single gold coin?

Anyone on here invest in silver?

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 07:09pm

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

I think you could be right about silver but I have not yet sprung for the standard bag of coins they sell. I think it is the price of several gold coins.

 

SG

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 07:57pm

    #7
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

[quote=jerrydon10]

If times get tough, wouldn’t it also be easier (more convenient) for trade to have $1000.00 in several silver coins rather than $1000.00 in a single gold coin?

Anyone on here invest in silver?

[/quote]

I have purchased several silver eagles and five rolls of walking liberty halfs for just this reason.

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 08:07pm

    #8
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

cape, I think that’s a good move:  keep the coins you have for insurance, but for investing/trading make a 2x short bet because there’s not much doubt gold is heading into a correction.  sentiment indicators put gold at over 90% bull.  that means there’s not additional support to be found for it.  I’m personally waiting for it to correct to the $600’s.

jerry, you don’t know savvy investors staying in dollars?  the savviest/biggest investors in the world are indeed staying in dollars via Treasuries.  the noisiest folks on TV are saying we shouldn’t do that, but the savviest bond traders and institutions are doing precisely that.  on the silver question, yeah I think they’re both good to have for insurance.  but silver is moving into a big correction too.  I’d wait for it to drop below $10.   

 

 

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 08:24pm

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

[quote=strabes]

jerry, you don’t know savvy investors staying in dollars?  the savviest/biggest investors in the world are indeed staying in dollars via Treasuries.  the noisiest folks on TV are saying we shouldn’t do that, but the savviest bond traders and institutions are doing precisely that.  on the silver question, yeah I think they’re both good to have for insurance.  but silver is moving into a big correction too.  I’d wait for it to drop below $10.   

[/quote]

 

Well, to me treasury is bonds, not like the cash in my wallet (if I understand you). And I’m aware that people are investing there at negative interest. Why, I’m not sure. They say safety.

What if the house of cards comes down and the Feds have to issue IOUs as the state of CA is doing right now?

I’m no George Soros but I certainly don’t understand how that investment helps a person in this economy. Doesn’t common sense tell us that there can be no inflationary hedge in a negative interest investment?

  • Tue, Mar 03, 2009 - 08:38pm

    #10
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Gold’s near future

That investment is ideal because we’re in deflation.     

The bond market rules the world.  It’s the best "investment advisor" to watch.  It’s real clear…we’re in deflation.  The inflationists are incorrect.  

The house of cards scenario is a long way off…US govt debt is the pinnacle of the global monetary system (as broken as it is) so it doesn’t make sense to compare it to the state of California.  It’s certainly prudent to keep it in mind, but it’s not on the horizon…yet.   

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